Maddux Sports Blog

Three big personnel moves occurred in the NFL yesterday, and each of them is worth a discussion:

Ronnie Brown – The Dolphins’ impressive but fragile running back has been put on the IR, and that means he’s out for the season. This time it his right foot that is the problem. Back in 2007 it was his right leg. Maybe he should just amputate that leg and start over again. Needless to say, this is a big blow for an already fragile team. Only three teams have run better than the Dolphins this year, while only two teams have passed worse. Add in Brown’s impact as one of the only players in the league who can effectively run a wildcat and you have a big hole. They aren’t totally without hope – they still have Ricky Williams and he has looked good this year. Williams is a far more straight ahead, less versatile back than Brown is, though, and it’s doubtful that Williams will be able to lead a similarly effective running attack – if he can even stay healthy for the rest of the season.

Ryan Fitzgerald – Perry Fewell needed to make an impact quickly as the new head coach of the Bills, and he found the easiest way to do it – he changed his quarterback. The ineffective Trent Edwards has been benched in favor of the ineffective Ryan Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has had significant play in three games so far this year, and the team has earned two of their three wins in that time. He has thrown twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and has completed less than half his passes, so it’s not a perfect solution. The Bills have been a truly terrible passing team this year, though, so it won’t hurt. None of it gives me any reason to even consider backing the Bills now or into the future.

Bruce Gradkowski – It took far too long, but the Raiders have finally come to their senses. They have benched JaMarcus Russell and given Gradkowski the reins. It’s not just a fleeting thing, either – coach Cable says that Gradkowski will be given a real chance to settle in and play. Gradkowski is not a great QB and he is in a brutal situation, so this isn’t going to make a significant change for the team. It still was the only thing to do. Russell has been absolutely terrible, and he is making absolutely no progress while he is playing. He probably won’t make any progress when he isn’t playing, either, but at least he won’t be making more truly terrible plays and crushing his final shreds of confidence and self respect. I can’t imagine that the team will be anything other than relieved by the change – it might even give them a boost. The good news is that Gradkowski barely has to do anything to be just as good as Russell.

Yesterday I touched on how uneven and uninspiring so many teams have been in the NFL has been this year. It’s really striking how large the gap is between the good teams and the not-so-good ones – bigger than usual, I think. As I was thinking about that earlier I was particularly struck by the sad state of quarterbacking in the league. There are always some QB problems, but I’m not sure that there is also this many teams in such a hopeless situation. Here’s a look at the worst offenders:

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I’m going to do a much more comprehensive review of what we learned from the NFL today when I have more time tomorrow. For now, though, I just want to touch on five different stats. Each of them is almost impossible to believe, but they all happened. Not surprisingly, three of them came from the same game:

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That was a crazy game to end a crazy sporting Monday. There is, like the first game, a whole lot to digest in that one. Here are a few of those things:

1. Oakland played very straight forward defense, but it was shockingly effective for much of the game – The Chargers are supposed to be a world class offense, but Oakland thoroughly outplayed them, and they did it without doing anything fancy. The defensive scheme really just looked like a basic preseason package, but they played it with intensity and burning desire, and San Diego couldn’t manage to overcome it to nearly the extent that they should have. Part of what helped the Raiders was Richard Seymour. He might not be happy to be in Oakland, but you’d never guess it by the way he played. He was a beast. The exception to that defensive strength, of course, was on the last drive when the Raiders played a tentative, pathetic prevent package when they badly needed to hold the Chargers.

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The sports world is always good at producing news that makes you go ‘huh?!?’. There is lots to choose from that fits into that category today:

- Jay Cutler has spent a fairly long interview finding all sorts of ways to tell the world how much be respects Josh McDaniel. Among the head scratching quotes: “Just the brief amount of time I was able to spend with him, he’s impressive. He knows a lot about offenses, he knows a lot about getting guys open and scoring points, as everyone’s seen when he was in New England”. Remind me again why Cutler fought so hard and like such a baby to get away from the team? By the sounds of that quote t sounds like the right thing to do would have been to suck it up and be a part of things there. It’s not like he landed in a significantly better place offensively in Chicago. Bizarre.

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I never thought that the Lions, as bad as they were, would be able to pull off the 0-16 miracle last year, but they did. I don’t think that another team will be that bad this year, but if a few teams get just a little bit too unlucky then anything can happen. Here are the five teams that seem most likely to flirt with the disaster:

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In the first section of this two-part blog on new NFL coaches, I considered five teams’ chances of making the post-season with a new head coach at the helm. Those five, the Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, I concluded all had the opportunity to earn a shot at the Super Bowl. The final six, I believe, have either less of a chance or little to none of securing a post-season berth. Here they are.

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Notes from around the sports, and sports betting, world today:

1. I can’t believe what a mess the Raiders are. De Angelo Hall hasn’t been worth the money they are paying him, but anyone with half a brain knew that that would be the case before the deal was done – especially since the Raiders didn’t really need corner help. Cutting him now may save a few bucks, but it has to throw the locker room into turmoil, and it makes the team a laughing stock. Or more of one. Good luck trying to attract free agents to town now. Especially if they cut Javon Walker, too. It is hard to imagine a time when this team is competitive again – at least not until after Al Davis’ funeral. From a betting perspective, it will be a long while until I can imagine seeing any value in them given their woes and the total chaos.

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I was going to call this post Monday’s Insights, but this first weekend of the NFL has made it perfectly clear to me that insights are an endangered species. The Vikings were the latest problem. I have been high on this team for more than a year now. Tonight they rewarded my faith by looking very, very average. Tarvaris Jackson made it increasingly difficult to imagine he has a bright future with a lackluster performance that was short of compelling excuses. Adrian Peterson was Adrian Peterson, with 103 yards and a touchdown. I have one huge question for the Minny staff after watching the game – why in the world did Peterson only get 19 touches? He was effective. Not much else was. What were you waiting for? You only lost by five, so another 10 carries could have made the difference.

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I don’t know about you, but I am itching for the football season to get here. Aching, really. NFL training camps get under way right away, so America’s favorite sport has been on my mind a lot lately. We’ll obviously spend a lot of time talking about the league in the weeks and months to come, but before we get into any specifics I just wanted to reflect on some of the general thoughts that are bouncing through my mind at this point.

Jacksonville – I like this team. A lot. Their division is a bit softer than it has been. Their offense is solid. Their defense is significantly upgraded. Every year there are a couple of teams that I either make or lose a fortune on. I strongly suspect that Jacksonville is one of those teams. They aren’t going to surprise anyone, and the public is going to be aware of them, but I still thin that they will play well enough to make some money.

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