Maddux Sports Blog

• After two games in Boston LeBron James is 8-of-42 shooting. Ouch. Boston is good and all, but that’s no excuse for a guy that good to be that bad
• Zab Judah hurt his arm and had to pull out of a fight against Sugar Shane Mosley scheduled for the end of the month. Boxing is in a sad state when the biggest story of the week is that we don’t get to see a fight between a couple of mostly washed up guys that nobody really needed to see anyway
• Here’s a news flash - Brandon Webb is pretty good. He made his eighth start of the year today and earned his league leading eighth win. He did it by tossing a gem - two earned runs and four strikeouts without a walk in a complete game. He’d picked on some lousy teams in his first six starts, but he’s beat the Mets and the Phillies in the last two, so the impressive factor just ratcheted up a bit.
• Dallas can start booking tee times for about 10 days from now. The Stars have only played one game against the Red Wings, but it looked like the men against the boys. The world would have to tilt on its axis for Detroit to beat Dallas.
• Sergio Garcia is leading the first round of the Players Championship by two strokes, but a stat jumped out when I saw it - the Spaniard is sitting 158th on the tour in putts per round. It’s not a wonder that he isn’t living up to his potential of late. That’s ugly.
• Chauncey Billups says he isn’t sure if he is going to play in game four after he strained his right hamstring in game three. I’m sure he ultimately will play unless he is confined to a stretcher or something, but that’s not very good news for the Pistons. Obviously.
• It’s funny how baseball works. If you had asked me six weeks ago I would have told you that Cleveland was dangerous because there rotation was so good, but if I had a guy who was going to be carrying a heavy load who I was worried about it was Cliff Lee. Now, Lee is 6-0 and giving up less than a run a game, Fausto Carmona is solid at 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA, and the rest of the rotation is 3-12. You couldn’t have seen that coming anymore than you could have seen that Detroit’s staff would be 6-16, or that Justin Verlander would be stinking it out at 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA. I was rock solid on Verlander as my Cy Young pick, and I was feeling painfully unoriginal doing it.

• It doesn’t really mean much on the grand scheme of things from a betting perspective, but one of my favorite things in baseball happened tonight - Minnesota’s Carlos Gomez hit for the cycle. He did it in what was an epic 13-1 beatdown of the White Sox by Minnesota. The usually solid Mark Buehrle got the start for Chicago, but it didn’t go well. After five decent innings the wheels fell off in the sixth when he allowed five earned runs. That was much better than Ehren Wassermann was in relief - he allowed five earned runs and only recorded one out. This is more of the same for the White Sox recently - they have on win in their last eight. Buehrle and his boys were favored tonight, though you wouldn’t guess it by the final score.
• I like it any time the Yankees lose, but I especially liked it tonight because it was the first loss for ace Chien-Ming Wang. He allowed three runs in seven innings against Cleveland, but that was too many. Cliff Lee started for the Indians, and he was magical - seven strikeouts with no runs or walks in seven innings. Lee has been one of the truly great stories of the season so far. He’s mostly a journeyman type, though he was 18-5 in 2005. This year he is 6-0 in his six starts, and his ERA is a ridiculous 0.81. His strikeout to walk ratio is alright, too - 39/2. He’s far from the biggest name in the league, but if the Cy Young was awarded today he would be a shoo-in. The best part tonight was that he was up against Wang and the Yankees, so Lee went off as +131 underdog despite being essentially unhittable all year. That’s a nice bargain.
• There have been eight games in the second round of the NBA playoffs so far. The home team has won all eight. A monkey could make money on that. If only it were always so easy.

White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd just can’t buy a break. The guy has come very close to a no-hitter twice in a month, and both times he has come up short. Tonight he had an out in the ninth against the Twins  before Joe Mauer found a massive gap in left center field for a double. Against the Tigers on April 12 he had an out in the eighth before giving up his first hit to Edgar Renteria. Those two games are closer to a no-hitter than most guys will come in their lives. Floyd is handling his near-misses with a sense of humor, but that’s the kind of thing you’ll see when you close your eyes for the rest of your life iunless you finally do get one.

Though Floyd missed the magical no-hitter, I started thinking about no-no’s as I was watching Floyd’s progress. More specifically, I was wondering what the right thing to do with the White Sox tomorrow would be if they did get a no-hitter today, and what I should do in Floyd’s next start if he got it done. That made me want to look back at recent no-hitters to see how the teams and pitchers bounced back. Is there a trend? Here’s a look at the last 10 no-hitters. (Keep in mind that this is a painfully small sample so it is pretty much meaningless, but it’s late and it’s raining and I’m bored so bear with me):

September 1, 2007 - Clay Buchholz, Boston - Boston won 3-2 the next day against Baltimore. In a truly bizarre move, Buchholz was rewarded for his amazing performance by being moved to the bullpen.

June 12, 2007 - Justin Verlander, Detroit - Detroit lost to Milwaukee as favorites the next day. Verlander had a stellar outing next time out - four hits, one run and 11 strikeouts in seven innings.

April 18, 2007 - Mark Buehrle, White Sox - Chicago beat Texas the next day as favorites. Buehrle was solid in winning his next outing - three earned runs in seven innings.

September 6, 2006 - Anibal Sanchez, Florida - Florida was blown out by Philadelphia the day after this game. Sanchez through seven solid innings (three earned runs in seven innings) in his next start.

May 18, 2004 - Randy Johnson, Arizona - The D-Backs won on the road as favorites in their next game. Johnson allowed two earned runs in seven innings in his next game.

June 11, 2003 - Six pitchers, Houston - The Astros lost to the Yankees the next day, but they were heavy underdogs. No pitcher lasted three innings, so that’s not relevant.

April 27, 2003 - Kevin Millwood, Philadelphia - The Phillies won against the Dodgers the next day as mild underdogs. Millwood was okay in his next start - three earned runs in six innings - but he ended up without a decision.

April 27, 2002 - Kevin Lowe, Boston - The Red Sox lost to Baltimore in their next game as very heavy favorites (-190). Derek Lowe had what seems to be the typical game post-no-hitter - three earned runs in seven innings. He didn’t get a decision, but the Sox did win.

September 3, 2001 - Bud Smith, St. Louis - The Cards won the next day as favorites. Smith didn’t appear again for two weeks, but he was very good - a shutout over seven innings.

May 12, 2001 - A.J. Burnett, Florida - Florida won easily the next day at even money. In his next start (which was just the third of his career) allowed just one run in six and a third to earn a win.

So, what have we learned? Nothing conclusive, but a couple of interesting things. First, there seems not to be a consistent way for a team to respond - the teams were 6-4 in the following games, but were probably only barely profitable because of the lines. On the other hand, it seems like a pitcher is a pretty solid bet coming off a no-hitter. All eight starters that were given a chance to start again in their next start were decent. None lost, and all managed to maintain some of their momentum from the previous game. Definitely worth a bet.

There is a very interesting pitching match-up in Arizona tonight. Two hot teams - the Phillies and the Diamondbacks clash with two pitchers at opposite ends of their careers. Jamie Moyer is older than the dirt he’ll be standing on on the mound, while Max Scherzer is a young phenom making his second MLB appearance and first start. Scherzer is 23. When he was born Moyer was a Cubs prospect in the New York - Penn League.

Scherzer comes into the league with a lot of hype. He’s a power pitcher with a fastball in the high 90’s. He was drafted by the Cardinals in 2003, but he opted to play college ball at Missouri instead, and was chosen again in the first round by Arizona in 2006. He rocketed up through the minor leagues before being called up last week as a reliever. His stint in the bullpen lasted exactly one appearance. He came in in the third inning against Houston last Tuesday after starter Edgar Gonzalez had given up six runs and eight hits. All Scherzer did was throw four and a third perfect innings while striking out seven. Those 13 outs he recorded were the most ever by a reliever in his first career appearance. Needless to say, it took D-Backs management about 12 seconds to decide to move him into the rotation in Gonzalez’ place.

The 45 year old Moyer has spent a good bit of time this year looking like a 45 year old. He is 1-2, he hasn’t won since the second game of the season, has allowed seven or more hits every game since then, and hasn’t made it out of the sixth all year. The Phillies are a solid 12-8 since April 13, but Moyer has been the starter in three of those eight losses.

It might sound like a recipe for disaster in Arizona - rushing a youngster into action so quickly. The list of pitchers who have been ruined through impatience is long. There is good reason to believe that that won’t be the case here, though. Most significantly, the team only needs him to be a fifth starter because they have a pretty darned good rotation ahead of him - Webb, Haren, Johnson, Owings. On top of that, Doug Davis could be back from cancer surgery as soon as a month from now, so Scherzer would likely find himself back in the pen or even back in AAA. If he is, as he appears to be, the real deal then he will have lots of time to show it.

All that aside, his appearance tonight creates an interesting betting situation. Scherzer and Arizona are favored at -156. The 148 price Moyer faces is the biggest he has seen all year, so this is a lot of pressure on a new pitcher making his starting debut. As good as he looked first time out, he was entering a game that was already over so there was no pressure. Now he is under the microscope. He could very well have a great night, but I would find it very hard to argue that there is any value on the Diamondbacks at this price. I think I’ll just be an interested observer tonight.

UPDATE: Age prevailed over beauty. Moyer had a pretty good night. Scherzer didn’t. Philadelphia won by seven runs.

• Crazy, crazy, crazy game between Dallas and San Jose tonight. San Jose needed a win in game six to survive. It was tied at one after regulation, and still tied after three overtime periods. The fourth overtime was a farce. The players were so tired that they could hardly move, and I’m sure both teams just wanted the suffering to end one way or another. Brenden Morrow finally scored the winner for Dallas halfway through the seventh period. The goal came on the powerplay, and it was a bit of a shame to see it end like that. Unfortunately for San Jose, though, the penalty was pretty blatant. Dallas has a few days to recuperate from this one - they don’t play Detroit until Thursday.
• The good news is that Tampa Bay got Scott Kazmir back today for the first time this year. The bad news is that they need him to be really good and he wasn’t. He lasted just four innings and allowed three earned runs in that time. There were some signs of hope from amongst the gloom, though - he struck out five and only walked three.
• CSKA Moscow beat Maccabi Tel Aviv Sunday to win the Euroleague championship. I love checking out the European games to see which players have ended up over there. There were some real gems in this one. Trajan Langdon, the Alaska-born former Duke star, was the MVP of the game and is one of the true stars of the league. One of his teammates is J.R. Holden. He played with Bucknell before heading to Russia, and he took Russian citizenship so that he doesn’t have to use up a foreign spot on the roster. THe losers were led by captain and point guard Derrick Sharp. He played at South Florida, but he is 36 so that was a while ago.
• Pittsburgh has one loss in two rounds, and there is no reason not to expect them to cruise through the battle of Pennsylvania relatively unscathed. They are young and have a lot to prove yet, but at this point they have to be solidly viewed as the favorites from among the four teams remaining. I’d take the youth and speed of Pittsburgh over the age and experience of Detroit.
• It won’t show up in their records because neither guy got a decision, but Johan Santana and Dan Haren had a heck of a duel today. Santana allowed one run in six innings, with 8 K’s and 4 walks. Haren responded with two runs in six innings with just one walk against seven K’s. Chad Qualls blew it for Arizona in the end with an uncharacteristically bad showing - three runs in the ninth.

I could write a lot about that race, but I won’t. Instead, just two thoughts:

1. Wow. Big Brown . Not more more to say. Unbelievable. I will either make a lot of money on this horse or lose it over the next five weeks, because there is no way I am betting on anyone else. Incredible.
2. Any doubts that horse racing is a tough sport? The story of Eight Belles goes down in history as one of the all-time happy-sad classics. Nothing more to say at this point.

The Kentucky Derby is tomorrow, and I am of the firm and unwavering opinion that it is the greatest sporting event in the world. There is no event that is any harder to win, and no sport that involves more challenge, heartbreak, or excitement than the sport of kings. Don’t get me wrong - there are a lot of truly spectacular sporting events. I’d just trade them all for what will go down in Louisville tomorrow if I had to (thankfully, I don’t).

All that being said, I have a big problem this year - I don’t have a horse. Most years, by this point I have been firmly and avidly entrenched on a horse for weeks or months. Last year I was on Curlin since March. In 2006 I was on the Barbaro bandwagon before he entered the starting gate in the Florida Derby. 2005 was a bit of a disaster when Noble Causeway was 14th, but there was no way I was staying away from what was likely to be (and ultimately was) Gary Stevens’ last Derby mount. This year all I have is confusion and questions.

At heart I am a romantic. That’s why I prefer college sports to the pros, and that’s why I love horse racing so much. It is a sport that is tailor-made for dreamers. For that reason I am drawn to Big Brown. The horse is clearly a freak, and he has never been even remotely challenged. There is the potential that this horse is truly special and that we are about to see something amazing. Unfortunately, there is just so much going against him that I can’t buy into him at 3/1. He’s only had three career starts, and no horse has won in the modern era with less than five career races. He’s only won twice this year. He has just one stakes start. He missed several months of training with some pretty serious foot issues. He’s coming from way out in the far outside gate - number 20. That’s a lot to overcome. I sincerely hope he does, but I can’t bet that he will at that price.

With him off the board, the problem is that no horse jumps up to fill the top spot. I have liked Pyro a lot since his huge performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he had a disastrous outing last time out in the Bluegrass Stakes and ended up 10th. I can discount that somewhat because it was on a synthetic track, but I still feel uneasy when a horse looks that bad the last time we saw him. Again, he doesn’t present any value at this price. Colonel John is getting all sorts of support, and his Santa Anita Derby win was very visually impressive. Lots of problems again, though - he has never run on dirt, I am not entirely convinced that he beat a very impressive group in the Santa Anita, and it has been a decade since a California horse has come out ahead. To sound like a broken record - no value here.

That rules out the favorites, so I guess I should look for a longer shot. Easier said than done. I have a soft spot for fillies that take the step up, but Eight Belles has never faced the boys before. Tale of Ekati and everyone else coming from the Wood Memorial gets ruled out because the last furlong of that race was so slow that I could have won it on foot. Court Vision seems content to be not quite good enough. I’d like Z Fortune for a lot of reasons, but trainer Steve Asmussen has lowered expectations at every opportunity this week. Visionaire looks best when he isn’t facing top horses. Smooth Air has to bounce back from a fever last week. Monba has better synthetic form, and he comes off a win in the Bluegrass - a race that was such a mess that several Derby entrants are throwing it out completely. The same goes for Cowboy Cal, except he got beat by Monba. Denis of Cork is coming off a truly bizarre prep schedule, and he didn’t fire at all in the Illinois Derby. Gayego has a habit of getting into duels with lesser horses down the stretch, and he doesn’t always win them. I like something about almost all of those horses, but apparently not enough.

So, what am I going to do? The only logical thing to do in this situation, I guess - head to the track tomorrow, drink some beer, and buy tickets on a bunch of horses so that I can at least say I had a piece of the winner (though if I am being honest, a win by Big Brown would make me happier than anything). It doesn’t really matter because whichever horse wins the Derby will instantly become my favorite horse as he pursues the Triple Crown - I can jump on a bandwagon as fast as anyone.

The Dallas Mavericks are out of the playoffs, and apparently it is all Avery Johnson’s fault. Mark Cuban is the kind of guy who needs someone to blame, and his head coach got to be the one. Johnson was fired this week just a day after the Mavs were bounced from the playoffs in the first round for the second straight year. Losing to Golden State last year was pretty bad, but there is no shame losing to New Orleans - they likely won’t be the last team to do that this year. Did Johnson deserve to get fired? Of course not. Just take a look at what he accomplished.

• He took over the team with 18 games left in the 2004-2005 season. He went 16-2.
• In his first full season he won 60 games and led his team to the Finals for the first time in franchise history. He was coach of the year.
• The next season he won 67 games.
• This year he won 51 games despite a number of injuries and an ill-conceived trade which backfired.
• He was the fastest coach ever to reach 100 wins and 150 wins.

Cuban got rid of Johnson, but there is one fact that becomes glaringly obvious when you look at it closely - he won’t be able to hire a better coach. At best he will make a lateral move. Sure, Johnson underperformed in the playoffs the last couple of years, but was that his fault, or was it due to the talent he had and the near-total lack of a killer instinct possessed by the key players? I would argue that Johnson deserves extra credit, and probably a medal, for getting as much as he did out of the team.

From a betting perspective there are two things I feel pretty confident about - there will be value on whatever team is smart enough to hire Johnson, and none in the Mavs next year unless the changes don’t stop here, or unless John Wooden, or at least Phil Jackson, takes over.

Random notes from Wednesday afternoon:

• You had better get used to the BCS the way it is now because it isn’t going to change any time soon. After much discussion today the BCS officials have chosen to change nothing until at least 2014. There was a proposal on the table to go to a four team playoff in 2010, but that was rejected. According to the officials the BCS is in an ‘unprecedented state of health’. That’s clear evidence that the BCS officials don’t actually watch the BCS games.
• Ugly, ugly game by the Mets today. They lost 13-1. To the Pirates, of all teams. To make matters even worse, nine of the 13 runs Pittsburgh scored were unearned. There’s sloppy and then there is the game New York played today. Five pitcher appeared for the Mets, but just two were responsible for the unearned scores. Oliver Perez started, but he didn’t make it out of the second inning. He allowed seven runs, but only two were earned. He walked five. Jorge Sosa was the third pitcher in, and he made Perez look sharp by comparison. He allowed four hits and five runs (one earned) in one inning. The rest of the team did their part in this mess by contributing three errors.
• We have another drug cheat in baseball. Giants’ catcher Eliezer Alfonzo is out for 50 games after testing positive for performance enhancers. He has been in the minors this year, but he started 113 games over the last two years and had put up respectable numbers. He probably would have found his way back to San Francisco soonif he hadn’t got caught because the drugs were obviously working - he was hitting .306 with 14 RBIs in 16 games.
• The Kentucky Derby is only three days away. The post position draw occurred today, and it featured an odd moment. Big Brown, the Derby favorite, is trained by Richard Dutrow, Jr. He is one of the most obnoxiously arrogant men on the planet. He has been so boastful about his horse that if you listened to him you would wonder why they are even bothering to run the race before giving his horse the roses. No one wants the outside post - number 20 - in the race because the horse has to travel so far to get to the rail. No one except for Dutrow that is. Other posts were available when Dutrow picked his post, but he took the 20. He says it is because he doesn’t want a horse outside of him, but more likely it’s just another way for him to show off. The horse has been unbelievable, but it has to overcome a lot to win here - he has raced only three times, including just two this year. No horse in more than 70 years has won the Derby without having run at least five times before.

Larry Brown has a new coaching gig. Again. The Charlotte Hornets become the ninth team he has helmed, following Denver, New Jersey, San Antonio, Indiana, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Detroit and New York. The prevailing attitude seems to be that he will be a miracle worker in Charlotte. Jim Rome went as far today as to virtually guarantee that the team would make the playoffs next year under his leadership. That’s quite a claim for a team that only won 32 games last year. But what has history taught us about what we can expect from Brown when he joins a new team?

The first place where Brown really established his legend was in San Antonio. He led that team to what was then the single biggest turnaround in league history - 21 wins in 1989 to 56 in 1990. That was impressive, but it is an incomplete story. Brown was also the coach when the team won the 21 games. He took over a team that had won 31 the year before and made little obvious improvement. It was only when the team added Sean Elliott from the draft. David Robinson fresh off his military duty, and Terry Cummings by trade that they were able to turn things around. Brown was in charge, but it hardly took a heroic effort to show improvement with that new talent.Of more note, the team’s number of wins decreased in each of the next two seasons and the team was knocked out of the playoffs in the first round both years.

His previous job at New Jersey could make Charlotte fans more optimistic - he jumped from 24 wins to 44 in year one. He didn’t win a playoff series in two years their either, though. With the Clippers he took over a team that was 22-25 and went 23-12 the rest of the year. The next year the team was 41-41, and Brown left for Indiana. With the Pacers he improved by six wins in his first year and by five more in year two. The team matched the 52 win total in year three but then slumped all the way to 39 wins before Brown resigned.

Brown’s first year in Philly had its struggles. Iverson was only in his second year. The team improved from 22 to 31 wins, but they still weren’t exactly good. A rapid improvement started after that, though, and they were in the NBA finals three years later.

Brown next went to Detroit, but we don’t learn much from that. He won the championship in his first season, but he was handed a complete team that had won 50 games in each of the two previous seasons. We also can’t really learn much from his year in New York because it was such a circus.

So what’s the conclusion? Brown is a very good coach, but he needs two things to succeed - talent and time. Not a lot of time - certainly less than a lot of coaches would need in the same situation - but some at least. There is some decent talent in Charlotte with Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace, and guys with untapped potential like Raymond Felton and Emeka Okafor. Adam Morrison will be back from a knee injury next year, and they will likely have a new lottery pick in the fold by next season. Brown will have something to work with, but he can’t work miracles, and it will take time for him to get his systems in place and to tweak the talent so that it fits his needs. In other words, I’m sure he will turn the team around (if he sticks around more than a year), but it won’t likely be next year. That could provide an opportunity for bettors - the public is likely to overcompensate for the Bobcats now that Brown is at the helm. This is especially likely early in the year. It doesn’t help his case that he has Michael Jordan behind him - he’s hardly been proven to be the most astute manager of talent.

I’ve been sidetracked by the draft for a few days, but it is time now to get back to thinking about baseball. Here are a few of the things that caught my attention as I was getting caught back up:”

• Barry Zito makes $126 million and now he is heading to the bullpen. That’s ugly but not surprising - he’s o-6 after all. Still, this is a massive fall from grace for a guy who was supposed to be one of the elite arms in the league. A lot of bettors are probably pretty happy to see him go, too - he’s been an underdog in every game he has played, and at some juicy prices, so a lot of people have probably been sucked in by thinking that his next game could finally be the one in which he turns it around. When he’s in the bullpen that temptation is eliminated.
• James Shields had a ridiculously good game against the Red Sox - a two hit complete game shutout with seven strikeouts and just one walk. It was no fluke, though - this guy can pitch. He was 12-8 last year for a team that only won 66 games, and his strikeout to walk ratio was better than 5-to-1. This year he has allowed just 11 runs in six games, and he hasn’t allowed more than three in a game. His ERA dropped a full point from his first year in 2006 to last year, and it has dropped more than 1.3 points so far this year. Best yet he’s only 26, so the best is still ahead of him.
• Since we’re on the topic of pitchers, I owe a mea culpa to Chien Ming Wang. At the start of last year I was positive that this guy was a half-weight masquerading as a top-of-the rotation starter. He’d gone 19-6 the previous year, but I had no faith in his ability to recreate it. He didn’t - he went 19-7 instead. Now he has started out 5-0 on a team that is otherwise struggling, He has had one disastrous start - eight earned runs in four innings against the Red Sox - but in that one his team managed to bail him out and win 15-9 to leave him without a loss. I still can’t say that I’m in love with his stuff or that he’s a guy I like to watch pitch, but I really have no choice but to admit that this guy is an elite starter. Now if only the Yankees had another one to join him.

People will look at the draft from a thousand different ways over the next couple of days. I will certainly resist the temptation to deliver meaningless draft grades, but there are a few things worth mentioning from a betting perspective about this draft:

• First, let me whine for a bit. My football fan rules are very simple - I am fiercely and blindly loyal to Michigan, and I hate anything to do with anyone named Manning. You can imagine my joy, then, that Mario Manningham went to the Giants and Mike Hart is a Colt. I’m not sure what I did to deserve that.
• I hope people keep saying lots of nice things about Kansas City. They had a great draft, and they improved significantly, but they are still going to be pretty lousy this year. The more nice things that are written about them the more the public will  like them and the harder it will be for them to cover spreads. Most significantly, this draft tells us that Brodie Croyle is still seen as the best option. Ouch. I love overly enthusiastic support of NFL teams.
• It’s pretty obvious what the Patriots are blaming for their late-season comparative weakness - the defense. They picked three outside linebackers and two corners. It makes sense - the average age of their linebacking core is about 142. It’s also pretty bad news for the other teams out there - the Pats are very good at continuing to fill their gaps and stay competitive.
• I’m probably going to live to regret this, but at this point the Bills are going to be a team I expect to rise this year. They had a very strong draft - the first corner off the board, the big, impressive receiver they need with a great value pick in the second round, and a ton of bodies to fill needs. On top of it all they are like a new team because they get back the ridiculous number of players that were hurt last year. They won’t win their division, but they will be in the wild card hunt.
• I guess the Jets believe in Kellen Clemens. The only quarterback they picked was Erik Ainge, and he’s a third stringer if he’s lucky. I didn’t see anything at the end of last year to make me that that was a good idea.
• Proof that the draft can be cruel - despite what seems like a ton of picks, lots of good players go undrafted. Prime example - Adarius Bowman was a beast of a receiver at Oklahoma State with 20 touchdowns in 24 games, and he was athletic enough to play basketball  for the Cowboys as well, but he went unpicked. He had a problem with the cops and pot a couple of times, but bigger things haven’t scared teams off of other players.

My draft thoughts as they occur:

1:02 p.m. - To the shock of no one (I hope), Jake Long was the first pick. New York fans stayed classy by booing him. Nice.

1:12 p.m. - Chris Long goes to St. Louis second. The draft definitely isn’t as interesting to watch when the picks are already known. I’m fairly confident that we know that Matt Ryan is going next, too, but we’ll see what happens.

1:17 p.m. - Matt Ryan is kissing his mother, so the Michael Vick era is about to end. A good pick, and it should make things very interesting now. Teams could be active to get Glenn Dorsey. The guy who benefits most from this is Chad Henne - I see him getting picked inside the top 20 now because there are a lot of teams who need a QB.

1:23 p.m. - Darren McFadden is tempting, but I am not completely sold on him, or on Oakland’s need to get a running back this high. If I was the Raiders I think I would have to go with Dorsey.

1:27 p.m. - Goes to show what I know. The best part of McFadden going to Oakland is that it pissed off the Jets fans. I don’t really have any problem with the Jets. It’s just their fans that are so unlikeable.

1:31 p.m. - That means that JaMarcus Russell will be handing off to Mcfadden. It’s handy when players I don’t really believe in are concentrated in the same place.

1:34 p.m. - Dorsey goes to Kansas City. Good pick and good value in that spot. He could have easily gone in any of the first five spots. The only guy left in the green room is Vernon Gholston. There’s a decent chance that he could be there for a while. It depends how badly teams want Sedrick Ellis. If I had to guess I would say that the Jets would trade down to New Orleans or Cincinnati, and that the Patriots are trying desperately to move down as far as they can. On the other hand, the Jets may not be able to resist the perceived value of Gholston.

1:43 p.m. - Gholston it is. I expect him to be a mild disappointment in his career. When he’s good he’s really good, but that’s not all the time.

1:45 p.m. - I’ll be surprised and verging on boredom if the Pats don’t make a trade here.

1:46 p.m. - It’s more fun watching Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn go through hell than it is seeing the green room empty out early. Is that wrong?

1:51 p.m. - The trade did happen. New Orleans is on the clock and should take Ellis.

1:53 p.m. - Ellis it is. Now Baltimore should trade down to pick a QB.

1:54 p.m. - Sure enough - Jacksonville trades up. Baltimore is in 26 now. I could see them try to move up a few spots to make sure they get Henne or Flacco - their guy may be gone by then. Jacksonville needs D-line help, so Derrick Harvey would be my guess. I like Harvey more than Gholston.

2:01 p.m. - It is Harvey. Third defensive end gone in eight picks. So far the draft has been pretty predictable, but it should get more interesting now as players get a bit more interchangeable.

2:06 p.m. - Wow, that Jacksonville move was expensive - two thirds and a fourth. I still expect Baltimore to use one or two of those picks to move back up a few spots.

2:07 p.m. - Keith Rivers goes to Cincinnati. Good day for USC so far. Given that they couldn’t get Ellis I like the pick. This pick will work out well as long as the Bengals keep building their defense. He’s a piece, not a complete answer.

2:10 p.m. - Cornerback if the biggest need for New England, and that would likely mean McKelvin. They could have a good corner further down, though, so I would suspect a trade or a pick of Mayo or Albert.

2:13 p.m. - Jerod Mayo is the pick. I love this pick - Mayo is a gem at this spot. Buffalo is next. I will be shocked if it isn’t Devin Thomas. I don’t love that choice, but I think it is the choice. It could be a corner - McKelvin - too. I wish that the Bills would trade down a bit instead.

2:17 p.m. - It was McKelvin. I feel relieved. I like the Bills, and I think that this pick pays off better now and in the future than Thomas. They can get a receiver later on that is not a major step down from Thomas.

2:19 p.m. - Branden Albert can’t fall past Denver, can he?

2:22 p.m. - Yep. Ryan Clady is the pick instead. I’m glad, actually - it’s good to see that Albert isn’t getting rewarded just for being a Combine freak.

2:27 p.m. - Carolina is next, and Johnathan Stewart is getting the buzz. I saw this guy play in person and he was impressive. He’s excellent value here.

2:28 p.m. - He was the pick. I like it. Bears next. Probably an offensive tackle, but we could make this really interesting if they took a quarterback. Won’t happen, but I can dare to dream.

2:37 p.m. - Chris Williams from Vandy is the OT of choice. he and Jeff Otah were fairly interchangeable, so this pick addresses a need. I just hope that the long term plan isn’t for him to protect Rex Grossman and block for Cedric Benson.

2:39 p.m. - Lions next. My first thoughts for them are all gone. I would love to see them take Rashard Mendenhall. They need a running game, and I am really high on this guy. If they don’t take him then Arizona probably will. If Mendenhall ends up behind a decent line I could see him having the top running year of the nice rookie crop.

2:43 p.m. - Finally something out of the blue. The Chiefs traded up into this spot to take Branden Albert (presumably). I like Albert here better than higher up because he is athletic and versatile. He’s very solid value at this pick. Great draft for the Chiefs so far. Great week really - they got maximum value for Jared Allen, and they are so far using their assets well. Mendenhall should go to Arizona now.

2:52 p.m. - If Arizona takes a corner, which is a real possibility, then Matt Millen may have just made the first really good move of his career - trading down for more picks and still getting his guy.

2:53 p.m. - Sure enough - Arizona takes Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie and his one kidney. No complaints about that pick. They can get a second running back later on to complement James.

2:57 p.m. - Wow. The Lions surprised me with that pick - Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. If that was who they wanted they could have traded further down to get better value. I don’t like the pick - not the best available player, nor does it fill the biggest need for the team. That saves me from having to say something nice about Matt Millen at least.

3:00 p.m. - Houston is next. My guess is Jeff Otah, the tackle from Pittsburgh. They need line help. I’d really like to see them move down a bit - say with Baltimore - because they aren’t getting a slam dunk here, and they need lots of help.

3:01 p.m. - Sure enough. Baltimore moves up to get Henne or Flacco. Great move either way. I would love it to be Henne, but my guess is Flacco. Henne will contribute sooner, but Baltimore will probably fall in love with Flacco’s arm.

3:04 p.m. - It was Flacco. Very good day for Baltimore. They got their guy (not my guy, but their’s), and they gained some picks doing it.

3:07 p.m. - Strange how this game works - Flacco is being worshipped as the next coming now, but he left Pitt after two years because he couldn’t beat out Tyler Palko.

3:09 p.m. - Iggles are up. Wide receiver? I like James Hardy and Mario Manningham, but they both have baggage, so Devin Thomas would probably be the choice.

3:10 p.m. - Scratch that - the Panthers traded up for the pick. I would love to see them take Chad Henne.

3:11 p.m. - Nope. They took Jeff Otah to shore up the line and make room for Johnathan Stewart. Not sure I love them trading back into the round for that, but it’s not a total disaster by any means. A decent deal as long as they didn’t have to sell their souls to do it.

3:13 p.m. - Now the Bucs are up. Jeff Garcia could use a target, so I would guess receiver. See my earlier comments regarding the Eagles - I would like it to be Hardy or Manningham, but think it will be Thomas.

3:15 p.m. - I can’t believe we are at number 20 in just over two hours. This isn’t nearly painful enough to be the first round of the draft.

3:16 p.m. - Okay, I hate the Jeff Otah pick. The Panthers gave up next year’s first round pick plus a second and fourth this year. Too much for a team that is more than a player away from being competitive - especially when that player is talented but not polished.

3:20 p.m. - Wow. Another surprise. Aqib Talib of Kansas goes to Tampa Bay. I thought his attitude issues would drop him behind Mike Jenkins. My complaint about this guy is that he takes too many risks that leave him out of position. This pick really tells us what teams think of this year’s receiver crop - not much.

3:22 p.m. - Washington is next. My guess would be Calais Campbell, but the last hour or so has shown how sharp my guesses are lately.

3:27 p.m. - Another trade. After a slow start this is getting very interesting. My guess is that someone is moving up to take a running back.

3:28 p.m. - Atlanta is the team that traded back up. Probably not a runner, then - they have Michael Turner. Could be anything - they have holes almost everywhere.

3:30 p.m. - They took Sam Baker, the OT from USC. I like the guy, but I am surprised that they had to move this high to get him. Still, nice to see them spending to protect Ryan and Turner. No complaints. Dallas is up next. Now they have the fortunate situation of picking whatever running back they want now that Mendenhall has fallen. They might even pick someone else with this pick and take a running back with their next one if they don’t have a strong preference between Mendenhall and Felix Jones. If they did that I would guess Mike Jenkins - Pacman Jones can’t be trusted. If I had to make one pick it would be Felix Jones.

3:38 p.m. - It’s good to get one right again. It was Jones.

3:40 p.m. - Someone is going to get a steal with Mendenhall.

3:42 p.m. - Pittsburgh next. They would have loved an OT but there isn’t one worth taking. A receiver? James Hardy would look good in these colors.

3:43 p.m. - They took Mendenhall. Had to take the best player on the board. He and Willie Parker will be a great backfield. I like the pick, obviously.

3:48 p.m. - Tennessee up next. I’ll make two guesses - they’ll either go receiver with Thomas or defensive end with Campbell. I’d list them in that order.

3:50 p.m. - Wow. The Titans stretch a bit to take Chris Johnson, the ridiculous fast guy running back from the Combine (4.24). A stretch for a team that has plenty of needs. Nice kick return potential, though. Again, this tells us how little people think of the receivers.

3:52 p.m. - Seattle is up. I have had Kentwan Balmer penciled in for quite a while for them and he is available so I won’t change my opinion.

3:59 p.m. - Seattle figures they can drop and still get their guy. Dallas moves up to take someone. Either a receiver or a corner. I guess Jenkins, but wouldn’t be surprised if it was Thomas or Desean Jackson.

4:00 p.m. - Jenkins it is. Nice pick.

4:01 p.m. - Houston is up now in Jacksonville’s spot which they got from Baltimore. Either they stretch a bit for the O-line or they take the best available. DeSean Jackson and Andre Johnson would be a pretty fun duo. I think it is O-line, and I’m pretty sure I won’t like it.

4:05 p.m. - Sure enough - Duane Brown from Virginia Tech is the pick. He’s a guy they probably could have had without worry 20 picks later. It’s not too hard to figure out why Houston has struggled for so long. Lousy pick in my eyes.

4:06 p.m. - San Diego up next. I have had Brandon Flowers here for a few weeks. My opinion hasn’t changed, but surprises are everywhere.

4:10 p.m. - Right position, wrong guy. Antoine Cason of Arizona. No complaints - I like the guy, too. Good pick to fill one of the few needs on the team.

4:12 p.m. - Seattle up next. Still going to stick with Kentwan Balmer.

4:16 p.m. - Lawrence Jackson of USC. Wow. The world loves the Trojans - that’s the fourth one. A bit of a reach in my mind. They could have traded down again if that was their pick.

4:17 p.m. - Still no receivers gone. San Francisco is on the board. I think that they will take Balmer because he is available. It will be someone in the defensive front seven. I would guess.

4:19 p.m. - There it is - Balmer. Very nice pick for them. This defense is getting better and better.

4:20 p.m. - Green Bay up next. Have to think they would love to trade down a bit. A team wanting a QB could be a partner. If they keep it my guess is Kenny Philips of Miami.

4:24 p.m. - Sure enough, Green Bay trades down with the Jets. The trade is to pick Dustin Keller. Nice tight end and nice pick.

4:27 p.m. - Last pick of the round - the Giants. They could do several things - a linebacker like Dan Connor, a safety like Kenny Philips, or whichever receiver they want. I have no clear choice, but I’ll guess DeSean Jackson just because he is flashy and fun. Personally, I just wish that the Giants would fold.

4:35 p.m. - It was Philips. Can’t complain about a guy from the U in the first round.

That’s it for the first round. It was a very interesting one - predictable up top and crazy down below. A lot of teams filled some big holes. It’s obviously way to early to figure out who did well, but kudos to the Chiefs and Baltimore.

I’m going to leave you now. It’s been fun. I’ll be looking to see where the rest of my Michigan boys go - there is some real value in them in my incredibly biased view.

A few quick thoughts on draft-day-minus-one (incidentally, I will be live-blogging throughout the first round tomorrow):

• I can’t decide if I was surprised to see Tyler Hansbrough stay in college for his senior season or not. On one hand, he was a guaranteed first rounder who would make a few million dollars over the next couple of years, and there is always the chance that he could be hurt or do something to fall out of favor. On the other hand, his game is clearly made more for college and he will be the runaway early favorite for Player of the Year next year, so the risk is going to be relatively low. Given that he decided to stay I was a bit surprised that Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington declared, though neither has an agent so anything could still happen. If I were betting I would say that Lawson will come back for another year because this is a guard-heavy draft and he isn’t going to be in the lottery. He easily could be with a strong year next year. If that happens then Ellington should return, too - he’s likely a second rounder as it is. And if all three guys come back then North Carolina will unfortunately be at least as good as this year. No matter what happens, Roy Williams is having a very good day.
• The Raptors and the Wizards earned much needed bug wins in the NBA playoffs last night. Unless I am missing something that means that in seven of the series only one road team - Philadelphia in game one against Detroit - has won a game so far. If only handicapping were always that easy. The only exception is the Utah-Houston series. In that one the home team has yet to win through three games. Other than that series the home team is at 13-3 ATS.
• Larry Brown has quit his gig with the 76ers to free himself up to take a coaching gig. In related news, Larry Brown really needs to go away.
• Another interesting reminder of how tough it is to draft players on the eve of this year’s edition: Five years agao the Jets picked DT Dewayne Robertson from Kentucky fourth overall. He was seen as a beast, and was the first defensive player off the board - ahead of guys like Terence Newman, Kevin Williams, Terrell Suggs, and Troy Polamalu. He was healthy but unimpressive in his first few years, and unhealthy and equally unimpressive more recently. The Jets tried to trade him to Cincinnati in March, but it fell through. Now they have sent him to Denver for a conditional draft pick that will fall somewhere in the mid rounds depending on how much he plays. Robertson was supposed to be a can’t miss prospect, but he missed pretty badly. We’ll be able to tell the same story about several of the can’t miss blue-chippers this year. It’s just a matter of which ones. My first bet is Vernon Gholston. I was also thinking today of another Big Ten offensive tackle now that Jake Long is locked in on top this year. Robert Gallery was the second pick in 2004 out of Iowa. He went behind only Eli Manning, and he was as close to a sure thing as anyone. Gallery was only okay as a right tackle his first two seasons, terrible as a left tackle in season three, and was moved inside to guard last year where he was adequate but not much more.

The NFL Draft is just a couple of days away (50 hours and 42 minutes if anyone is counting), and like many of you I am in the violent final throes of draft fever. I’ve read (and written) so many mock drafts that I am almost blind, I’ve changed my mind on most players several times, and I have firmly embraced my biases (as a Michigan fan you can imagine how giddy I am right now - take that Suckeyes!). The only thing left for us degenerates to do is to figure out if we can make any money from this thing. Of course the sportsbooks are more than happy to help us out in that pursuit, offering us dozens of different props to throw our money at. Here are some of the most interesting:

First pick - I can’t find odds to bet that it will be Jake Long anywhere. Too bad - I’m feeling pretty good about that one.

Atlanta - There are reports out there that the Falcons aren’t going to pick Matt Ryan even if St. Louis picks Glenn Dorsey (incidentally, there are other reports saying that St. Louis is favoring Chris Long). I don’t see how that makes any sense at all, but if that is the case then there are some nice odds out there. Chris Long is 9/2 to be Atlanta’s pick, and Vernon Gholston is 10/1. The field is at 17/4. I still think tha tthe safest bet is Matt Ryan, but the price isn’t that attractive - 20/23.

Oakland - Darren McFadden is a decent fit here, but I am surprised by how heavily he is favored - 10/17.

Jets - Vernon Gholston is the favorite here at 1/1. I could see that unless McFadden is available (6/5). I also don’t want to rule out seeing the Jets trade down - if Ryan is still available then this will be a prime trade spot because New England would likely trade, too, and Baltimore wants him.

Baltimore - Their favorite is Ryan at 17/10. I don’t love that bet at that price - I don’t see how he is still available there. If he’s not my bet would be for them to trade down, but that’s not a choice.

Buffalo - I’m not positive I understand why they are doing it, but it seems pretty clear that Devin Thomas is their pick. That means that 11/10 is a decent price.

Rashard Mendenhall - You can bet on which team he will end up with. Detroit seems like the most likely choice, but it isn’t as likely as the odds suggest - 1/1. I’ll pass on this one.

Second QB drafted - I think that there is some value here. Brian Brohm is the favorite at 5/9, but I like Chad Henne’s chances a bit better, especially given he is at 9/5. The buzz is big around him, and I especially like the chances if Baltimore doesn’t get Matt Ryan. I don’t think they will, so I llike the Henne bet quite a bit.

Will New England trade their first pick? - I don’t see anyone that they are in love with, and they probably would rather have more picks than a high one. More importantly, New Orleans and Cincinnati could be interested in moving up to get Sedrick Ellis, and there will be a frenzy if Matt Ryan is still alive. The Pats are 13/10 to move down, and that’s worth a look.