NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, November 5, 2017, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
Opening Line: Oakland -2 1/2
Current Line: Oakland -3 (-125)
Opening Total: 43 1/2
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: Raiders -140 / Dolphins +120
Current Money Line: Raiders -170 / Dolphins +150

The Raiders and Dolphins meet in Miami on Sunday night.

Last year, both the Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins made the AFC playoffs as wild  card teams. This year both have have been inconsistent at best. The two teams meet Sunday night in Miami. Oakland is 3-5 and in last place in the AFC West. Miami is 4-3 and in third place in the AFC East.

Oakland leads the series 19-17-1 against Miami. However, the Dolphins have won five straight games in the series, the last four by 16 points or more. Miami beat Oakland 38-14 in London in 2014 in the last meeting.

Oakland is coached by Jack Del Rio. The Raiders have a road win over the Tennessee Titans 26-16 and home wins over the New York Jets 45-20 and Kansas City Chiefs 31-30 . Oakland has road losses to the Washington Redskins 27-10 and Buffalo Bills 34-14 last week. The Raiders have home losses to the Baltimore Ravens 30-17 and Los Angeles Chargers 17-16. The Raiders have lost five of the last six games after a 2-0 start.  Oakland was a 2 point underdog against Buffalo and the total was 47. The Raiders are 3-5 ATS and the total is 4-4 this season.

Miami is coached by Adam Gase.  Miami has road losses at the New York Jets 20-6 and Baltimore Ravens 40-0 last week in a Thursday night game and a loss to the New Orleans Saints 20-0 in London. The opening game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was postponed to week eleven because of a hurricane. Miami has road wins over the Los Angeles Chargers 19-17 and Atlanta Falcons 20-17, plus home wins over the Tennessee Titans 16-10 and Jets 31-28.  Miami was a three point underdog against Baltimore and the total was 38. Miami is 3-3-1 ATS and the total is 2-5 this season.

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Oakland is being outscored 24-21 this season. The Raiders  average 318 yards per game on offense including 230 passing yards and 88 rushing yards. The Raiders are #26 in rushing. On defense, the Raiders allow 357 yards per game including 237 passing and 120 rushing yards per game. Oakland is #21 or worse in all three categories. The Raiders are 40/105 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 55/118. Oakland has forced 12 sacks and has allowed 13 this season. Oakland is -6 in turnovers and has allowed two defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Derek Carr has completed 64.6% of his passes for 1,654 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, plus 6 carries for 22 yards. He has been sacked 9 times. E.J. Manuel played in a couple of games when Carr was out with a back injury. He threw for 265 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and rushed for 15 yards.

Running back Marshawn Lynch has 72 carries for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 4 catches for 38 yards. He returns from a one game suspension last week. Jalen Richard has 40 carries for 179 yards and a touchdown, plus 17 catches for 188 yards. DeAndre Washington has 29 carries for 79 yards, plus 22 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Michael Crabtree has 33 catches for 411 yards and six touchdowns.  Amari Cooper has 34 catches for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tight end Jared Cook has 31 catches for 373 yards and a touchdown.  Seth Roberts has 15 catches for 172 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with an illness. Cordarelle Patterson has 14 catches for 69 yards but has 10 carries for 124 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Ten defensive players and two offensive linemen are on the injury report. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski is questionable with a back injury and hasn’t played this season. Giorgio Tevecchio has done well as Janikowski’s replacement.

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Miami is being outscored 22-13 this season. Miami is last in scoring. The Dolphins average 252 yards per game on offense including 176 passing and 76 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #30 or worse in all three categories.  On defense, Miami is allowing 306 yards per game including 211 passing and 95 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #7 in total defense and #8 against the run. Miami is 28/98 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 28/85. The Dolphins have forced 15 sacks and allowed 16 this season. Miami is -4 in turnovers this season and has allowed 4 defensive touchdowns.

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Dolphins signed the retired Jay Cutler after the injury in the pre-season. He is probable with a rib injury after missing last week. Cutler has completed 62.8% of his passes for 995 yards with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and also has 7 carries for 20 yards. He has been sacked 12 times. Matt Moore replaced Cutler after the injury. He has thrown for 364 yards with 2 touchdowns and three interceptions. He is probable with a back injury.

Running back Jay Ajayi was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles this week for draft picks. He has 138 carries for 465 yards, plus 14 catches for 67 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Damien Williams has 12 carries for 32 yards, plus 8 catches for 50 yards. He will split the carries with Kenyan Drake. The Dolphins do not have rushing touchdown this season.

Receiver Jarvis Landry has 50 catches for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kenny Stills has 25 catches for 313 yards and 4 touchdowns. DeVante Parker has 19 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with an ankle injury. Tight end Julius Thomas has 17 catches for 168 yards. Seven defensive  players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Oakland is 1-4 ATS after rushing for less than 90 yards, after a straight up loss by 14 points or more, after passing for 250 yards or more, against AFC teams and on grass, 1-5 against teams with winning records, in road games and overall, and 0-5 against teams with losing home records. The underdog and road team are both 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

Miami is 3-1-1 ATS on grass, 7-3 in week 9, 11-5 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 6-13 against teams with losing records, 8-18 after failing to cover, 3-7 after gaining less than 250 total yards, 5-12 after scoring less than 15 points, 15-43-2 against teams with losing road records, and 5-16 after allowing more than 30 points. The Dolphins have covered the last four games in the series and all four went over the total.

The Dolphins have somehow won four games despite having by far the worst offense in the league. They can’t run or pass. Oakland is probably the most disappointing team in the league because some thought they were Super Bowl contenders coming into the season. I like the Raiders to win a low scoring game.

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