NFL Week Nine Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, November 5, 2017, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Opening Line: Dallas Pick (-125)
Current Line: Dallas -2 1/2
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Current Total: 53
Opening Money Line: Cowboys -125 / Chiefs +105
Current Money Line: Cowboys -140 / Chiefs +120

The Cowboys host the Chiefs Sunday.

The 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs travel to the 4-3 Dallas Cowboys Sunday in a match-up of two of the top offenses in the league. Kansas City leads the AFC West by two and a half games and is tied with the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers for the best record in the AFC. Dallas is in second place in the NFC East behind the 7-1 Philadelphia Eagles.

Dallas leads the series 6-4 against the Kansas City. The Chiefs won the last meeting 17-16 in Kansas City in the last meeting in 2013. This is the first time Kansas City is playing in Dallas since 2005.

Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs have road wins over the New England Patriots 42-27, the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10, and Houston Texans 42-34, plus  home wins over the Philadelphia Eagles 27-20, Washington Redskins 29-20 and Denver Broncos 29-19 last Monday night. Kansas City has a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers 19-13 and a road loss to the Oakland Raiders 31-30. The Chiefs were 7 point favorites against the Broncos and the total was 42. Kansas City is 6-2 ATS and the total is 6-2 this season.

Dallas is coached by Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have a home win over the New York Giants 19-3 and  road wins over the Arizona Cardinals 28-17, San Francisco 49ers 40-10 and Washington Redskins 33-19 last week. Dallas has a road loss at the Denver Broncos 42-17 and home losses to the Los Angeles Rams 35-30 and Green Bay Packers 35-31. Dallas was a 3 point favorite against Washington and the total was 46.5. The Cowboys are 4-3 ATS and the total is 5-2 this season.

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Kansas City is outscoring teams 30-23 this season. Kansas City is #3 in scoring.  The Chiefs average 378 total yards per game on offense including 255 passing and 123 rushing yards per game. KC is #3 in total  and #6 in passing. Kansas City allows 392 total yards per game on defense including 261 passing and 131 rushing. The Chiefs are #28 or worse in all three categories. The Chiefs are 43/105 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 43/107. Kansas City  has forced 18 sacks and allowed 22 sacks this season. The Chiefs are +10 in turnovers.

Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 69.1% of his passes for 2,181 yards with 16 touchdowns and no interceptions, and has 32 carries for 154 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked 22 times. Rookie Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback of the future.

Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has 146 carries for 763 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 28 catches for 307 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Charcandrick West has a rushing touchdown along with 23 rushing yards on five carries, and also has 12 catches for 76 yards and two touchdowns. Spencer Ware was supposed to be the starter but tore his ACL in the preseason.

Tight end Travis Kelce has 44 catches for 556 yards and 4 touchdowns. Receiver Tyreek Hill has 38 catches for 553 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 9 carries for 22 yards.  Albert Wilson has 17 catches for 221 yards and a touchdown. He is out with a hamstring injury. Chris Conley has 11 catches for 175 yards. he is out for the season with a knee injury. Demarcus Robinson has 10 catches for 115 yards. De’Anthony Thomas has 7 catches for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns. Six defensive players are listed on the injury report along with three offensive linemen.

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Dallas is outscoring teams  28-23 this season. Dallas is #20 in points allowed and #5 in scoring.  The Cowboys average 370 yards per game on offense including 219 passing and 151 rushing yards. The Cowboys are in the top eight in total and rushing offense. On defense, Dallas allows 325 total yards including 219 passing and 106 rushing yards. The Cowboys are  46/102 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are  42/107. Dallas has forced 25 sacks and allowed 9 this season. Dallas is  +2 in turnovers and has allowed two defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Dak Prescott has completed 62.8% of his passes for 1,569 yards with 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He also has 23 carries for 168 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked seven times.

Running back Ezekiel Elliott has 164 carries for 690 yards and six touchdowns, plus 19 catches for 210  yards and 2 touchdowns. He is facing a six game suspension from the NFL.  Elliott will continue to play until the matter is decided in court.  Alfred Morris has 13 carries for 105 yards. Rod Smith will also get some carries

Receiver Dez Bryant has 32 catches for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a knee injury. Tight end Jason Witten has 34 catches for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Terrance Williams has 21 catches for 216 yards. Brice Butler has 8 catches for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cole Beasley has 18 catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion. Seven defensive players are injured or suspended. Kicker Dan Bailey is out indefinitely with a groin injury. The Cowboys signed veteran kicker Mike Nugent last week.

Kansas City is 4-0 ATS on fieldturf, 9-1 in road games, 5-1 after a win and a cover, 6-2 in November and overall, 7-3 against teams with winning records, 3-7 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 5-12 on Sunday after a Monday game, and 2-6 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards.

Dallas is 9-3 ATS after scoring 30 points or more, 9-3-1 after rushing for more than 30 yards, 10-4 after a cover, 2-5 at home, 8-21-1 on fieldturf, 1-6 in week 9, 0-4 against teams with winning records, 0-5 against teams with winning road records, and 0-3-1 after passing for less than 150 yards. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in this series recently.

I don’t know if either of these defenses will be able to stop the other’s explosive offense. There might not be more than three punts between the teams in this game. The Dallas defense is improving as they are getting healthy, but will still give up some big plays. I like the Chiefs to steal a close game on the road.

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