NFL Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Monday, November 6, 2017, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Opening Line: Detroit Pick
Current Line: Detroit -2
Opening Total: 43
Current Total: 43
Opening Money Line: Lions -128 / Packers +108
Current Money Line: Lions -130 / Packers +110

The Packers and Lions meet for the 176th time Monday night in Green Bay.

Two of the NFL’s oldest rivals meet for the 176th time Monday night as the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions. Green Bay is 4-3 and Detroit is 3-4. Both teams are looking up in the NFC North standings to the 6-2 Minnesota Vikings.

Green Bay leads the series 100-68-7 against Detroit. The Packers have won four of the last five games against the Lions including both meetings last year. Green Bay won 34-27 at home and 31-24 in Detroit last season. The teams will meet in Detroit on New Year’s Eve to close out the regular season. These teams have been playing since 1930.

Detroit is coached by Jim Caldwell. The Lions started off the season 3-1 but have lost three straight games since then. Detroit has home wins over the Arizona Cardinals 35-23 plus road wins over the New York Giants 24-10 and Minnesota Vikings 14-7. The Lions have home losses to the Atlanta Falcons 30-26, Carolina Panthers 27-24 and Pittsburgh Steelers 20-15 last Sunday night. Detroit also has a road loss at the New Orleans Saints 52-38. The Lions were three point underdogs against the Steelers and the total was 44.5. Detroit is 3-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season.

Green Bay is coached by Mike McCarthy. The Packers  have home wins over the Seattle Seahawks 17-9, the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 in overtime and Chicago Bears 35-14, plus a road win at the Dallas Cowboys 35-31. The Packers have road losses at the Atlanta Falcons  34-23 and Minnesota Vikings 23-10, plus a home loss to the New Orleans Saints 26-17 two weeks ago. The Packers were off last week.  Against New Orleans , Green Bay was a 3.5 point underdog and the total was 45.5. The Packers are 3-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season.

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Detroit is outscoring teams 25-24 this season. Detroit is #9 in scoring and #25 in points allowed. The Lions average 324 yards per game including 242 passing and 82 rushing yards. Detroit is #28  in rushing. On defense, the Lions allow 346 total yards per game including 255 passing and 92 rushing yards per game. Detroit is #26 against the pass and #6 in rush defense.  Detroit 37/106 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 35/93. The Lions have forced 13 sacks and allowed 25 this season. Detroit is +7 in turnovers with 2 special teams and 3 defensive touchdowns. However, they have also given up four defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has completed 60.4% of his passes for 1,851 yards with 12 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, with 13 carries for 68 yards. He is the second leading rusher for the Lions, but he has been sacked 25 times.

Running back Ameer Abdullah has 101 carries for 369 yards and a touchdown, plus 13 catches for 79 yards. Theo Riddick has 22 carries for 60 yards and 25 catches for 204 yards and a touchdown. Dwayne Washington has 15 carries for 43 yards. He is probable with a concussion.

Receiver Golden Tate has 43 catches for 449 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marvin Jones has 26 catches for 408 yards and 3 touchdowns. T.J. Jones has 17 catches for 261 yards. Tight end Eric Ebron has 15 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Darren Fells  has 11 catches for 113 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kenny Golladay  has 7 catches for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Nine defensive players and eight offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Green Bay is outscoring teams 23.4-23 this year. Green Bay is #11 in scoring. The Packers average 310 yards per game on offense including 208 passing and 102 rushing yards.  On defense, Green Bay allows 349 total yards per game including 223 passing and 126 rushing yards per game. The Packers are #23 in total defense and #27 in rush defense. Green Bay is 46/100 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 42/93. The Packers have forced 12 sacks and allowed 24 this season. Green Bay is +4 in turnovers and has allowed two defensive touchdowns.

Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone against the Vikings a few weeks ago. Rodgers is out for the season. He has completed 66.3% of his passes for 1,385 yards with 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 18 carries  for 83 yards. Rodgers was sacked 19 times in six games. Brett Hundley is Rodgers’ replacement. He has completed 52.5% of his passes for 244 yards with a touchdown and four interceptions, and has 4 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked five times.

Running back Aaron Jones had 62 carries for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver turned running back Ty Montgomery has 60 carries for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 20 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown.   Jamaal Williams has 10 carries for 33 yards.

Receiver Davante Adams has 30 catches for 351 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jordy Nelson has 26 catches for 303 yards and 6 touchdowns. Randall Cobb has 28 catches for 261 yards and a touchdown, plus 10 rushing yards.  Tight end Martellus Bennett has 17 catches for 141 yards. He is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Geronimo Allison has 11 catches for 167 yards. Tight end Lance Kendricks has 6 catches for 94 and a touchdown. Ten defensive players and three offensive tackles are listed on the injury report.

Detroit is 6-0 ATS in November, 6-1 in week 9, 4-1 in Monday games, 5-11 against NFC North teams, 4-9 against teams with winning records, 2-5 after a straight up loss, 3-8 against NFC teams, 2-6 after failing to cover, 1-4 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, after gaining more than 350 yards, after allowing more than 350 yards, and overall, 2-11 on grass, and 1-7 against teams with winning records. The over is 4-1 ATS in this series recently. The favorite is 16-5 ATS in this series recently.

Green Bay is 4-0 ATS against teams with losing road records, 6-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 5-1 after rushing for more than 150 yards, 10-3-1 after a bye week, 6-2 at home, 5-2 against NFC North teams, 38-16 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 1-4 against teams with losing records, in November, and after passing for less than 150 yards, and 1-5 after a straight up loss. The Packers have covered four of the last five overall against the Lions and are 5-1 ATS in Green Bay in the series.

Both of these teams have issues and I don’t think either one will make a serious run to catch the Vikings. The Detroit offensive line is in shambles because of injuries. Green Bay’s isn’t much better, and they are not a good team without the incredible Aaron Rodgers playing quarterback. I like the Packers to win a close game though with their running game.

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