NFL Week Four Betting Preview: Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 1, 2017, 4:25 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Sports Authority Field – Denver, Colorado
Opening Line: Denver pick (-120)
Current Line: Denver -3 (-120)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 45 1/2
Opening Money Line: Broncos -127 / Raiders +107
Current Money Line: Broncos -170 / Raiders +150

The Broncos and Raiders renew their rivalry Sunday in Denver.

The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos both started off this season 2-0 but both had disappointing road losses on the East Coast last week. Both are behind the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West but ahead of the 0-3 Los Angeles Chargers.

This is the 116th meeting between the Raiders and Broncos, both original AFL teams. Oakland leads the series 62-51-2 against Denver. The teams split the season series last year, with each winning at home. Oakland won 30-20 at home and Denver won 24-6 at home in the last game of the regular season. The two teams will meet in Oakland Thanksgiving weekend.

Oakland is coached by Jack Del Rio. The Raiders have a road win over the Tennessee Titans 26-16 and a home win over the New York Jets 45-20. Last Sunday night, Oakland lost at the Washington Redskins 27-10. The Raiders were held to just 128 total yards and 7 first downs against the Redskins. Oakland was a 3.5 point road favorite against Washington and the total was 53.5. The Raiders are 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season.

Denver is coached by Vance Joseph in his first season. The Broncos have home wins over the Los Angeles Chargers 24-21 and Dallas Cowboys 42-17. Last Sunday, Denver lost at the Buffalo Bills 26-16. The Broncos were 3.5 point road favorites at the Bills and the total was 40. Denver is 1-1-1 ATS and the total is 3-0 this season.

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Oakland is outscoring teams 27-21 this season. The Raiders are #9 in scoring. Oakland averages 299 yards per game on offense including 192 passing yards and 107 rushing yards.  On defense, the Raiders allow 371 yards per game including 259 passing and 112 rushing yards per game. Oakland is #21 or worse in all three categories. The Raiders are 15/38 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 21/41. Oakland has forced 6 sacks and has allowed 6 this season. Oakland is +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Derek Carr has completed 70.3% of his passes for 610 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, plus 4 carries for 7 yards.

Running back Marshawn Lynch has 36 carries for 139 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches for 28 yards. Jalen Richard has 13 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown, plus 4 catches for 61 yards. He is probable with a calf injury. DeAndre Washington has 10 carries for 24 yards, plus 10 catches for 57 yards.

Receiver Michael Crabtree has 13 catches for 170 yards and three touchdowns. He is doubtful with a chest injury. Tight end Jared Cook has 13 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. Amari Cooper has 10 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a  knee injury. Seth Roberts has 5 catches for 39 yards. Cordarelle Patterson has 3 catches for 15 yards but has 6 carries for 67 rushing yards and a touchdown. Four defensive players are on the injury report. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski is out until at lest week nine with a back injury. Giorgio Tevecchio has done well as Janikowski’s replacement.

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Denver is outscoring teams 27-21 this season. The Broncos are #8 in scoring. Denver averages 356 yards per game on offense including 213 passing and 143 rushing yards. Denver is #3 in rushing and #10 in total offense. On defense, Denver allows 263 total yards including 203 passing and 60 rushing yards per game. The Broncos are in the top four in total and rush defense and #10 against the pass. Denver is 23/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 15/49. The Broncos have forced 7 sacks and allowed 9 this season. Denver is -3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Trevor Siemien has completed 63% of his passes for 709 yards with 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 14 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked nine times. Back-up Paxton Lynch is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, so the Broncos resigned former quarterback Brock Osweiler as the back-up.

Running back C.J. Anderson has 53 carries for 235 yards and a touchdown, plus 6 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Jamaal Charles has 28 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 catches for 7 yards. DeVontae Booker is probable to make his season debut after missing the first three games with a broken wrist.

Receiver DeMaryius Thomas has 17 catches for 236 yards. Emmanuel Sanders has 16 catches for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bennie Fowler III has 8 catches for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Virgil Green has 6 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. Five defensive are listed on the injury report.

Oakland is 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss, 4-1 after failing to cover and after scoring less than 15 points, 8-2 after allowing more than 350 yards, 8-3 after a loss by 14 points or more, after gaining less than 250 yards, and against AFC teams, 10-4 in road games, 9-4 on grass, and 1-8 in week four. The road team is 12-5-1 ATS in this series recently.

Denver is 8-3-2 ATS at home, 5-2 in week four, 16-7 after a straight up loss, 9-4 in October, 13-6-1 after failing to cover, 2-6-1 against AFC West teams, and 1-4-1 against AFC teams. The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in this series recently. The Broncos are 8-2-1 ATS against the Raiders recently, including 3-1-1 in Denver.

Both these teams look like potential Super Bowl contenders, but are coming off bad performances last week. I think that was an aberration. However, the loser of this game could find themselves two games behind the Chiefs depending on what they do against the Washington Redskins on Monday night. I think the Broncos win a tough game at home in a high scoring game.

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