NFL Week Four Betting Picks: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 1, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, Arizona
Opening Line: Arizona -7 1/2 (+115)
Current Line: Arizona -6 1/2
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: Cardinals -330 / 49ers +270
Current Money Line: Cardinals -300 / 49ers +250

The Cardinals and 49ers meet Sunday in an NFC West battle.

The NFC West appears to be wide open with the favored Seattle Seahawks struggling with a tough schedule early. The Los Angeles Rams lead the division with a 2-1 record. The Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are next at 1-2 while the 0-3 San Francisco 49ers are in last place. Arizona hosts San Francisco Sunday.

San Francisco leads the series 29-22 against Arizona. The Cardinals have won four straight games in the series including both match-ups last year. The Cardinals won in Santa Clara 33-21 and at home 23-20. The teams will meet again in the Bay Area November 5. This rivalry dates back to 1951, but they have only been division rivals since 2002.

San Francisco is coached by Kyle Shanahan in his first year. The 49ers have home losses to the Carolina Panthers 23-3 and last Thursday to the Los Angeles Rams 41-39, plus a road loss to the Seattle Seahawks 12-9. After scoring only four field goals in the first two games, the San Francisco offense exploded for 39 points against the Rams. A missed extra point led to a missed two point conversion for the 49ers which was the difference in a game that was more entertaining than most thought it would be. San Francisco was a three point underdog against Los Angeles and the total was 40.5. The 49ers are 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season.

Arizona is coached by Bruce Arians. The Cardinals have a road loss at the Detroit Lions 35-23 and a home loss to the Dallas Cowboys 28-17 Monday night. Arizona has a road win over the Indianapolis Colts 16-13 in overtime. Against Dallas, Arizona dominated early but a missed field goal in the second quarter proved to be the turning point in the game. The Cowboys would outscore them 28-10 from that point on. The Cardinals were three point underdogs against the Cowboys and the total was 46.5. Arizona is 0-3 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season.

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San Francisco is being outscored 25-17 this season. The 49ers are #24 in scoring and #28 in points allowed. The 49ers average 295 yards per game on offense including 188 passing and 108 rushing. The 49ers are #25 in total offense and #27 in passing. San Francisco is allowing 339 total yards per game including 215 passing and 124 rushing yards per game. The 49ers are 16/48 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 24/45. The 49ers have allowed 10 sacks and forced 3 this season. San Francisco is -1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer has completed 62.6% of his passes for 624 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has a rushing touchdown and has been sacked ten times.

Running back Carlos Hyde has 49 carries for 253 yards and two touchdowns, plus 12 catches for 61 yards. He is probable with a hip injury. Matt Breida has 11 carries for 55 yards, plus 4 catches for 23 yards. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has 3 catches for 51 yards. He is probable with a concussion.

Receiver Pierre Garcon has 16 catches for 249 yards. Marquise Goodwin has 8 catches for 109 yards. Tight end George Kittle has 8 catches for 48 yards. Trent Taylor has 6 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. Garrett Celek has a touchdown catch. Thirteen defensive players are listed on the injury report.

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Arizona is being outscored 25-19 this season. Arizona is #26 in points allowed. The Cardinals average 343 yards per game including 284 passing and 59 rushing yards. Arizona is #3 in passing offense, but #31 in rushing. On defense, the Cardinals allow 302 total yards per game including 216 passing and 86 rushing yards. The Cardinals are in the top ten in total and rush defense. Arizona is 21/51 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/44. Arizona has forced 6 sacks and allowed 11 this season. The Cardinals are -3 in turnovers.

Quarterback Carson Palmer has completed 56.8% of his passes for 925 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus 7 carries for 15 yards. He has been sacked eleven times.

Running back David Johnson had 11 carries for 23 yards along with 6 catches for 67 yards. He is out until at least week 10 with  a broken wrist suffered in week one. Chris Johnson has 23 carries for 61 yards. Kerwynn Williams has 15 carries for 35 yards and a touchdown. Andre Ellington has only 7 carries for 33 yards, and has 10 catches for 106 yards.

Receiver  Larry Fitzgerald has 22 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown. J.J. Nelson has 10 catches for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable with a hamstring injury.  Jaron Brown has 6 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. John Brown has 4 catches for 32 yards. He is questionable with a quad injury.  Tight end Jermaine Gresham has 8 catches for 62 yards and is probable with a rib injury. Four defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

San Francisco is 5-0 ATS against NFC West teams, 4-1 after gaining more than 350 total yards, overall and against NFC teams, 6-2 in week four, 6-13 against teams with losing records, 4-9-1 after allowing more than 350 total yards, 3-10 after allowing more than 30 points, 1-4 after scoring more than 30 points, and 0-5 in October. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The 49ers are 8-3 ATS in Arizona recently.

Arizona is 4-1 ATS after a double digit home loss, 3-7 after passing for 250 yards or more, 2-5 after a straight up loss, against teams with losing road records, and in October, 3-8 against NFC teams, 2-6 on grass, and 3-10 overall, 2-8 after failing to cover, 1-4 at home and against teams with losing records, 1-6 in week four, and 1-10 after rushing for less than 90 yards.

Arizona is 1-2 but their win is over the equally woeful Indianapolis Colts. San Francisco could easily be 2-1 as they had chances to win late against both the Seahawks and Rams. I think the 49ers offensive performance last week was an exception and I think this will be a low scoring game. I like the Cardinals to win at home.

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