NFL Week Four Betting Picks: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 1, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa Bay, Florida
Opening Line: Tampa Bay -4 1/2
Current Line: Tampa Bay -3 (Even)
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 44 1/2
Opening Money Line: Buccaneers -190 / Giants +165
Current Money Line: Buccaneers -145 / Giants +125

The Giants look for their first win of 2017 as they travel to the 1-1 Buccaneers.

The New York Giants are 0-3 and are desperate for a win as they travel to the 1-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday. The Giants are one of five teams without a win and are in last place in the NFC East with the other three teams being 2-1. Tampa Bay is 1-1 and in third place in the NFC South behind the 3-0 Atlanta Falcons and 2-1 Carolina Panthers.

New York leads the series 14-6 against Tampa Bay. The Giants have won five straight games against the Buccaneers, including 32-18 in Tampa in 2015 in the last meeting.

New York is coached by Ben McAdoo and has road losses to the Dallas Cowboys 19-3 and last week at the Philadelphia Eagles 27-24, plus a home loss to the Detroit Lions 24-10. The Giants offense rose from the dead last week against the Eagles and New York led 24-21 with less than a minute left. However, the Eagles kicked two long field goals in the final minute including a 61 yard kick as time expired to win the game. New York was a five point underdog against Philadelphia and the total was 43. The Giants are 1-2 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season.

Tampa Bay is coached by Dirk Koetter. The Buccaneers’ opening game against the Miami Dolphins was postponed due to Hurricane Irma to week 11 when both teams have a mutual bye. Tampa Bay has a home win over the Chicago Bears 29-7 and a road loss at the Minnesota Vikings 34-17 last week. The game against the Vikings was a pick and the total was 41. The Buccaneers are 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

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New York is being outscored 23-12. New York is second to last in scoring. The Giants average 306 yards per game on offense including 257 passing and 49 rushing yards. New York is #8 in passing but last in rushing. The Giants allow 334 yards per game on defense including 181 passing and 153 rushing yards. The Giants are #6 against the pass but last in rush defense. New York is 12/39 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 22/48. New York has forced 7 sacks and allowed 8 this season. New York is -2 in turnovers.

Quarterback Eli Manning has completed 73.5% of his passes for 825 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Geno Smith is the back-up.

Running back  Orleans Darkwa has 13 carries for 53 yards, plus 3 catches for 13 yards. He is questionable with a back injury. Paul Perkins has 23 carries for 48 yards, plus 6 catches for 29 yards.  Shane Vereen has 7 carries for 33 yards, plus 14 catches for 96 yards. He is questionable with a calf injury.

Receiver  Sterling Shepard has 16 catches for 200 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Evan Engram has 13 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown. Odell Beckham, Jr. has 13 catches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brandon Marshall has 10 catches for 93 yards. Roger Lewis has  7 catches for 73 yards. Ten defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Tampa Bay is outscoring teams 23-21 this season. The Buccaneers average 327 yards per game on offense including 255 passing and 72 rushing yards. The Buccs are #9 in passing and #27 in rushing.  Tampa Bay allows 402 total yards per game including 330 passing and 73 rushing. The Buccaneers are #30 in total offense, #31 against the pass and #4 in rush defense.  Tampa Bay is 9/21 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 14/29. The Buccs have forced a sack and allowed 4 this season. Tampa Bay is even in turnovers.

Quarterback Jameis Winston has completed 65.7% of his passes for 532 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 2 carries for 7 rushing yards.

Running back Jacquizz Rogers has 24 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown, plus 9 catches for 58 yards.  Peyton Barber has 10 carries for 47 yards.

Receiver Mike Evans has 14 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown. DeSean Jackson has 7 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown.  Adam Humphries has 8 catches for 86 yards.   Cameron Brate has 6 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. Chris Godwin has 3 catches for 44 yards.  Twelve defensive players are on the injury report.

New York is 4-1-1 ATS after a straight up loss, 8-2-1 in week four, 6-2-1 after rushing for less than 90 yards, 33-16-3 in October, 2-6-1 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards, and 1-5 after a cover. The road team has covered the last four games in this series. The Giants are 5-1-1 ATS against the Buccaneers recently including 4-0-1 in Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 yards, and on grass, 4-1 after passing for more than 250 yards, 6-2 against teams with losing records and after a loss by 14 points or more, 7-3 overall, 22-45-1 at home, 11-24 against teams with losing road records, and 1-5 in week four. The under is 7-2 in this series including 5-1 in Tampa Bay.

The Giants have been abysmal in the running game, and the offensive line can’t pass protect either. Tampa Bay has struggled on defense especially against the Minnesota Vikings who were without quarterback Sam Bradford. The Giants should be able to throw the ball against the Buccs, but I still think Tampa wins at home in a close game.

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