NFL Betting Picks Week Four: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 1, 2017, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: Fox, NFL Sunday Ticket
StubHub Center – Carson, California
Opening Line: Los Angeles Pick (-120)
Current Line: Los Angeles -2
Opening Total: 46 1/2
Current Total: 47 1/2
Opening Money Line: Eagles -115 / Chargers -105
Current Money Line: Chargers -135 / Eagles +115

Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers look for their first win of the season as they host the 2-1 Philadelphia Eagles.

The 2-1 Philadelphia Eagles travel to the 0-3 Los Angeles Chargers Sunday. The Eagles are part of a three way tie for first in the NFC East while the Chargers are one of five teams without a win. The Chargers lead the series 7-4 against the Eagles. LA has won two straight games against Philadelphia including a 33-30 road win in 2013.

Philadelphia is coached by Doug Pederson. The Eagles have a road win at the Washington Redskins 30-17 and a home win over the New York Giants 27-24 last week, plus a loss at the Kansas City Chiefs 27-20. Against the Giants, Philadelphia was a 5 point favorite and the total was 43. The Eagles trailed 24-21 with less than a minute left and rookie kicker Jake Elliott nailed a 46 yard field goal to tie and a 61 yarder to win the game as time expired. Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season.

Los Angeles is coached by Anthony Lynn. The Chargers have a road loss to the Denver Broncos 24-21, plus home losses to the Miami Dolphins 19-17 and Kansas City Chiefs 24-10 last week. LA was a 3 point underdog to Kansas City and the total was 47.5. The Chargers are 0-2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 ATS this season.

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Philadelphia is outscoring teams 26-23 this season. The Eagles are #10 in scoring. Philadelphia averages 372 total yards per game including 253 passing and 119 rushing yards. The Eagles are in the top ten in all three categories. The Eagles allow 341 yards per game on defense including 266 passing and 75 rushing yards. Philadelphia is #6 in rush defense. Philadelphia is 23/46 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 11/36. The Eagles have forced 8 sacks and allowed 11 this season. Philadelphia is +1 in turnovers.

Quarterback Carson Wentz has completed 62.1% of his passes for 816 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and has 83 rushing yards on 14 carries. He has been sacked 11 times.

Running back LaGarrette Blount has 26 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown, plus a touchdown catch. Wendell Smallwood has 19 carries for 79 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches.  Darren Sproles has 15 carries for 61 yards, plus 7 catches for 61 yards. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. Donnel Pumphrey is also out for the season with a hamstring injury

Tight end Zach Ertz has 21 catches for 245 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Alshon Jeffrey has 14 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown. Torrey Smith has 9 catches for 125 yards.  Nelson Agholor has 9 catches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Ten defensive players, including six players in the secondary, are listed on the injury report. Kicker Caleb Sturgis is out until at least week 11 with a quad injury.

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Los Angeles is being outscored  22-16 this season. The Chargers  average 315 yards per game on offense including 245 passing yards and 71 rushing yards. LA is #28 in rushing. On defense, Los Angeles allows 323 yards per game including 176 passing yards per game and 147 rushing yards. LA is #5 in pass defense, but #31 against the rush. The Chargers are 11/35 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 17/42. The Chargers have forced 4 sacks and has allowed 11 this season. LA is  -2 in turnovers.

Quarterback Philip Rivers has completed 65.2% of his passes for 760 yards with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has been sacked four times this year.  Kellen Clemens is the back-up.

Running back Melvin Gordon has 44 carries for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 12 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with a knee injury. Branden Oliver has 15 carries for 57 yards, plus 4 catches.

Receiver Keenan Allen has 19 catches for 196 yards and a touchdown. Travis Benjamin has 9 catches for 159 yards and a touchdown. Tyrell Williams has 11 catches for 123 yards. Tight end Hunter Henry has 7 catches for 80 yards. Another receiver, first round draft pick Mike Williams is doubtful with a back injury. Tight end Antonio Gates has 6 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown.  Six defensive players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Philadelphia is 10-22-1 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards, 2-7 in road games, 1-4 after a straight up win, against teams with losing home records, after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, and in October, 1-5 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 0-7-1 in week four, and 0-4 against teams with losing records.

Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS after a double digit home loss, 5-1 after scoring less than 15 points, 5-2 in week four, 5-16 against teams with losing road records, 5-18 at home, 1-5 after allowing less than 150 passing yards, 1-9-1 on grass, 0-6-1 after a straight up loss, 0-5-1 after failing to cover, 0-4 against teams with winning records, and 0-7-1 overall. The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS against the Eagles recently.

Both of these teams are banged up on defense. Even though they have yet to win a game, the Chargers have been in every game late in the fourth. The Chargers don’t have much of a home field advantage as they are basically playing eight road games and eight neutral site games in their temporary home in Carson. The Eagles should probably be favored on the road in this contest, and I like them to win a close game.

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