Maddux Sports Blog

I don’t know about you, but I am itching for the football season to get here. Aching, really. NFL training camps get under way right away, so America’s favorite sport has been on my mind a lot lately. We’ll obviously spend a lot of time talking about the league in the weeks and months to come, but before we get into any specifics I just wanted to reflect on some of the general thoughts that are bouncing through my mind at this point.

Jacksonville - I like this team. A lot. Their division is a bit softer than it has been. Their offense is solid. Their defense is significantly upgraded. Every year there are a couple of teams that I either make or lose a fortune on. I strongly suspect that Jacksonville is one of those teams. They aren’t going to surprise anyone, and the public is going to be aware of them, but I still thin that they will play well enough to make some money.

Seattle - At 10/11, the Seahawks are favored to win the NFC West. This is a sad statement on the state of that division. I guess I don’t dislike Seattle. How can you, really? There is just nothing to like about them, either. They are the vanilla ice cream of the NFL. If they were to fold right before the season started it would take six weeks before anyone would notice. I just wish I had enough faith in the Cardinals (2/1) to believe that they can finally realize their potential and win this division.

New England - The Patriots aren’t going to be as good as they were last year. Perhaps not even close. That being said, I will be more surprised than I have ever been by anything in my life ever (and I am a Michigan fan who was expecting to beat Appalachian State by 30) if the Pats don’t win their division this year. Easily. Incredibly easily. I’m not the only one to hold this bold opinion - the team is 1/10 to win the division.

San Diego - The Chargers might not even have to work as hard as the Pats will to win their division. There isn’t another team there that stands even a chance of being elite in my mind. Not even close

Minnesota - As a general rule I try to avoid hype whenever possible. The problem here, though, is that I am not sure I can. Minnesota has a ton of talent, I don’t respect their division or their conference, and they have a decent schedule. I don’t think that Minnesota is the best team in the conference, but I find it hard to convince myself that they aren’t among the elite.

San Francisco - The last two years at this time of year I have touted the Niners. It worked fabulously for me two years ago. It didn’t last year. I’m not going to do that again this year. I wish I could - they have some things to like. They just can’t get their act together. This team is dead to me.

Oakland - Some people say that the Raiders could be significantly improved this year. Some people also say that Elvis is still alive. I don’t think either is true. Maybe they will win a game or two more, but they still have a long way to go before they are respectable.

Tennessee - Here’s a prediction for you - this is the last year that Vince Young will be a full time starter in the NFL. No single reason, just a collection of little feelings.

Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis deserves to still be the coach of this team just as much as Roger Clemens deserves the benefit of the doubt - not even slightly. The Bungles have been a mess for a couple of years now, and they are going to be a mess again. The offensive talent that Lewis has wasted is almost criminal.

Kansas City - The Chiefs are going to be the worst team in the league. I feel pretty good about the chances of that. What do I like about this team? Pretty much nothing. Maybe Larry Johnson, but he’s fragile, and I really don’t like his chances of holding up without a line to protect him or a quarterback to provide other options to distract the opposing defenses.

We are still several months away from the start of the NFL season, and there is a whole lot of quality sporting action between now and then. For a huge number of sports bettors, though, the NFL is the only thing that really matters. If the players aren’t currently dancing with other stars then they are in the weight room and on the practice field getting ready for next season. There’s no reason that you shouldn’t be doing the same. Don’t worry - you don’t have to break a sweat to get ready. Here are five things you can do to get ready to be at your best and most profitable when the season starts for real, though:

Catch up on player movement - It’s easy to keep track of the high profile players and their new addresses. Football is the ultimate team sport, though, so it’s more than just the stars that impact how a team will perform. Now is a great time to study the depth chart of teams and how they have changed since last we saw them. The rosters aren’t cast in stone yet, obviously, but studying now can give you a good sense of which teams have truly improved and which still have work to do. The media will spend lots of time between now and then talking about the same thing, but they will focus on the stars and rarely delve into what really matters. You’ll have an edge on the public if you work hard to form your own opinion.

Do your reading - There are hundreds of websites devoted to handicapping, dozens of forums filled with good information, and a small library of worthwhile football books as well. The more you read and learn, the better you will be as a handicapper. You won’t agree with everything you read, and you might not even change what you do, but you’ll learn to avoid mistakes or do things differently. Instead of rading a John Grisham on the beach, read something that will make you some money down the line.

Improve your record-keeping - Most bettors don’t keep very good records. They probably know if they win or lose, but they can’t necessarily tell you how they do it. Spending the time setting up a better, more comprehensive record-keeping system is perhaps the biggest single thing you can do to help you make more money. If you closely track your bets you can find the leaks - the bets that you consistently make that aren’t profitable. You probably have bad habits that you aren’t even aware of - maybe you play the over more than you should, or you think that the Bears are better than they are. You can only fix the problems when you first identify them. Spend some time making friends with Excel this summer.

Plunge into the stats - You probably spend a lot of time looking at stats during the season, but there are also a lot of stats that you probably ignore. You should spend the time now getting familiar with some stats that you don’t use in your handicapping now. Look at individual boxscores, find a stat that sticks out as being particularly good or bad, and see how the game turned out. Then look at other games to see if the same stat had the same impact. If you do start to see a trend then you can look deeper. If not then move on to the next one. You might just find another way to find and edge in a game or two over the season.

Get to know the rookies - New players are on their way, and many of them will be making a serious impact. The media has been talking about them since long before the draft. They certainly don’t plunge very deep into reality when they do it, though. If you want to really form valuable opinions about the new players you need to ignore all that you have heard and form your own ideas. Read articles from the local papers in the towns the player’s schools were located in. Look for scouting reports from real draft analysis sites that do their own research. Go to Youtube and find highlights packages to see the players first hand. Maybe you’ll spot something that you really like about a player, or something you really don’t. There is no such thing as too much knowledge.

Sportsbook.com has become the first book to release NFL season totals for next year. I’m not generally a fan of these bets, and especially not in the NFL when the possible range is so small because of the number of games they play. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t anything to learn from the bets, though. By looking at the numbers and the juice required we can get a good sense of how oddsmakers are feeling about some teams. If any are a surprise then we have lots of time to figure out if they seem right or wrong. Here are the strongest opinions based on the first numbers posted:

Buffalo over 7.5 (-180) - The Bills are the heaviest favorite on the board. Books are obviously pretty confident that they will improve on their seven wins of last season. It’s not hard to justify that opinion - their quarterback has more much needed experience, their injury woes will hopefully be a thing of the past, the offense reloaded in the draft, and they seem to be moving in the right direction. Their division schedule will be tougher than last year, though, because the Pats are still the Pats and the Jets and Dolphins have improved. The rest of the schedule could be tough, too, including San Diego, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. I like the Bills, but certainly not enough to make this bet.

Oakland over 6 (-170) - The second biggest price on the board isn’t very attractive to me, either. To pay off here the Raiders need to find three more wins. Their running game should be improved (though it was pretty much the lone bright spot last year), but they will be relying on a brand new quarterback who isn’t surrounded with overwhelming tools. It could happen, but I don’t love the chances, and I think that this price is just an attempt to sucker in the suckers that call themselves Raiders fans.

Indianapolis under 11 (-165) - Books are down on the Colts. They would have to drop by three wins here. The arguments can be made - the receiving corps has questions (including whether Marvin Harrison will end up in an orange jumpsuit), and Tony Dungy doesn’t seem to be committed to his job for the long term. I don’t know whether I believe in this one or not, but I would be more than a little thrilled if it were true.

Dallas over 10.5 (-160) - I wonder if America’s team has ever been anything other than a heavy favorite to go over. The public can’t seem to be objective about this team, and the books take advantage of it. The number doesn’t seem that unreasonable, but the price sure does.

Atlanta over 4.5 (-160) - The Falcons need to find one more win than last year to pay off here. They have a new quarterback who has to make a gigantic leap up from the ACC, a coach who has never been at the helm of a team before, a GM who has to rebuild the team almost from scratch in his first year as a GM, and players have defected from several key positions. I have no doubts that this team is on the right path and will figure things out eventually, but I don’t think that their improvement this year is nearly the lock that this price would suggest.

The betting-related sports news that is catching my eye in five different sports

Baseball - Pitcher Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati struck out ten in seven innings and only allowed one hit and one earned run to lead his team past Arizona. This guy is ridiculously good, and he should present decent value until the public starts to figure that out.

NFL - Jack Del Rio has signed a five year contract extension with the Jaguars. That’s quite an investment in a guy who has just one playoff win. Unless he has something in his bag of tricks that I haven’t seen yet, this just tells me that the Jags will be decent but not great for the next five years.

College football - There are two quarterback races I am watching closely in spring practices - USC because they have three decent choices, and Michigan because they don’t have any. So far it seems like neither school has an early leader. Michigan only has a week and a half to find one.

NBA - Pau Gasol played 32 minutes in his first game back. He had 10 points, six boards and seven assists. That’s much better than I expected in his first game back, and a good sign for a team that needs a boost.

College basketball - Memphis has suspended reserve guard Andre Allen for the Final Four. I don’t think it is much cause for concern. One on hand he averaged 14.1 minutes per game and played in 37 games, so there is definitely a hole to be filled. He only averaged 3.3 points, though, so chances are pretty good that his time was going to be cut in this game, anyway - Calipari will go with what works best without worrying about the future too much. I’m not going to change my thoughts about the team at all, though I’m a little concerned that whatever happened to get him booted could have an impact on the psyche of the team.