1. Will Denver ever lose? If they are going to do it then this is a good place for it to happen – in Baltimore. The Ravens have been impressive in a lot of ways despite their 3-3 record. Really a few breaks either way and these teams could easily have the opposite records. I have a feeling that whichever team wins this one will really have proven something in the process.
Yesterday I touched on how uneven and uninspiring so many teams have been in the NFL has been this year. It’s really striking how large the gap is between the good teams and the not-so-good ones – bigger than usual, I think. As I was thinking about that earlier I was particularly struck by the sad state of quarterbacking in the league. There are always some QB problems, but I’m not sure that there is also this many teams in such a hopeless situation. Here’s a look at the worst offenders:
So, when did the NFL become less competitive than non-conference college football? Six of the 12 games played yesterday were decided by at least four touchdowns. That’s preposterous. It makes for ridiculously uncompetitive action, and therefore mostly uninteresting football. The good news, I guess, is that at least we aren’t taking bets on the games – books are getting absolutely killed by favorites covering monster spreads like this. The favorites were 8-3-1 ATS this week, and the three biggest spreads, usually the public money magnets that the books feast on, all covered. Ouch. The disparity in the league this year is amazing. For the first time ever we have three undefeated teams through seven weeks of the season. On the flip side, we have three teams that could quite conceivably not win a game, and for a couple more it seems impossible to believe that they have already won one (or more). I thought salary caps were supposed to bring competitive balance?
It’s early in the first set of Sunday games , and a lot of thoughts are running through my mind already:
1. What is the point of this farce in London? The field isn’t ideal, the crowd sounds like they are at a funeral, the broadcast doesn’t look or sound quite right, and the Bucs are pretty much the worst ambassadors for the league possible. Josh Johnson has thrown two interceptions already in the first quarter, and the game is already over. Of course, it was all but over before the kickoff. It can’t be long now until we see Josh Freeman start to play for the Bucs – it’s not like they have anything to play for, and Freeman can’t be much worse than the alternative.
1. The baseball playoffs aren’t starting off any more interesting than the regular season finished. Three sweeps in the LCS round?!?!?!?! How painfully dull. Baseball has never been in more need of excitement than it is right now. That play-in game was brilliant, but very little since then has been even remotely compelling.
Very surprising happenings in Copenhagen today. Chicago was the co-betting favorite to win the right to host the 2016 Olympics. There were four cities competing – also favored Rio, lightly regarded Madrid (Given little chance because 2012 are in nearby London), and Tokyo which was given little chance by anyone. There were to be as many as three ballots, with one city eliminated on each ballot. Despite the presence of the two most important people in the country – Obama and Oprah – Chicago was shockingly eliminated on the first ballot. You can suggest any one of a hundred different theories for why this happened, but it all just boils down to the ridiculous politics of the IOC. On the plus side, Rio might be a bit chaotic in the organizing, but it should be a heck of a party when it happens.
Injuries are always a big story in football – it’s the nature of the game. This year is no exception. Both the college and the pro games have been hit with an amazing number of key injuries that have to be seriously considered in betting decisions. Here’s a look at some of the more important ones:
1. I still have long term concerns about how good the Favre experiment will look in December, but one thing seems certain now – this team is only undefeated because they signed him. Or at least that seems reasonable. It’s hard to imagine that Rosenfels or Jackson would have been able to lead that comeback in the same way, or could have thrown that pass to win as time expired. I don’t see this team doing any real damage in the playoffs. I don’t even now for sure what the Vikings really have to offer, and likely won’t know until they play Baltimore in week six.
1. Brett Favre has had a personality transplant. For the second straight game he played reasonably selfless team football, and it is working for him. He didn’t take any of the stupid risks that we have gotten used to, he settled for smaller plays that would have once driven him crazy, and he was stunningly efficient. If he can keep this up and not trip over his ego then he could really do something this year. I’m not betting on it, though – he can’t keep things under control for that long.
I’m sitting here in a hotel room in Ontario watching the first NFL game of the long season. The Steelers have just scored a TD to break the scoreless tie. So far the game has been the defensive battle that we would have expected, though it has raised a couple of questions – most notably whether the Titans will have the potential to stop the pass rush at all this year or if Kerry Collins is going to wind up in a body bag. As I watch the rest of the game along with the beatdown that Georgia Tech is (or at least was) inflicting on Clemson it seems like a good time to look forward to what to expect for this very young NFL season. Over the next two days, then, let’s look at some predictions for what I see happening. Today I’ll look at teams, and tomorrow I’ll look at individual accomplishments:
