I really, really, really hate the Pro Bowl. Total waste of time, and totally pointless as a handicapping exercise. Here are 10 reasons why:
1. It’s boring. Name the last time that there was an exciting Pro Bowl. You can’t because it has never happened.
Five Thoughts about each of Sunday’s games:
Dallas (+2.5) at Minnesota
1. Is the Dallas defense for real? They have allowed just two touchdowns in the last 12 quarters, and have looked almost unbeatable, but that has come in two games against the obviously deeply flawed Eagles and a game at the terrible Redskins. This is a big step up in competition for them.
Five Thoughts about each of Saturday’s games:
Arizona (+7) at New Orleans
1. The total is interesting here. The books set it at a sky high 57.5 – higher than either team had faced all year. Still, because of what Arizona did last week and what New Orleans is capable of doing I was expecting that the public might push it higher still. They haven’t – it’s down as low as 56. That’s more restraint than I typically give the public credit for having.
The NFC only has some seeding issues to determine because the teams to make the playoffs are all set. The AFC on the other hand is as crazy as it has been in years. The four division winners are set except for some minor seeding questions, but the wild card is totally wide open. As you get ready to watch and bet on the games today here’s a cheat sheet to try to clarify the picture a bit.
Baltimore – Simply, they are in if the win at Oakland in the late afternoon game. If they don’t win that game then they need to wait for the rest of the teams to eliminate themselves in order to make it.
N.Y. Jets – Like Baltimore, the Jets are in if they win. If they lose they also need to sit back and hope the rest of the teams knock themselves out. They are at home to the Bengals, and Cincinnati will likely be resting players for the playoffs, so for the second straight week the Jets could benefit from their scheduling. If any team can mess this up, though, it’s the Jets.
Denver – If the Broncos had won one of their last three games then they wouldn’t be in the mess that they are in. Now they need a bunch of help, though they do have the most chances of any team that doesn’t control their own destiny. They play at home against the Chiefs. They should be able to win that one, but they don’t have to – though it would obviously be easier if they did. If they win then they need either Baltimore or the Jets to lose or tie and either Pittsburgh to lose or Houston to win. If both the Ravens and Jets lose then the Broncos are in with a win. If the Broncos lose then they could still get in four different scenarios which all include a Pittsburgh loss. In addition to that they would need loss by Baltimore, Houston, and Jacksonville or the Jets, or from Baltimore, the Jets, and Jacksonville, or from Houston, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Finally, the Broncos have an unlikely longshot possibility – they could get in win or lose if Pittsburgh wins but Baltimore, Miami, the Jets, Jacksonville, and Houston all lose. Confused yet?
Pittsburgh - The Steelers are eliminated if the lose at Miami. If they win that game then they need losses from either the Jets and Baltimore as well as Denver, or from the Jets or Ravens and Houston.
Houston – The Texans need to win against the Pats at home. That shouldn’t be to tough if, as expected, the Pats take it easy with their starters. If they win then they either need losses from both the Jets and Ravens, or from one of the two and the Broncos.
Jacksonville – The Jags are one of two 7-8 teams that are still alive. The obviously need to beat the Browns in Cleveland. If they do that then they still need a lot of help. If Baltimore and the Jets both lose then they also need losses from Denver and Pittsburgh, or Houston and Pittsburgh, or Denver and Houston. If just one of the Jets or Ravens loses then they need Denver, Houston and Pittsburgh all to lose. In other words, if you are a Jacksonville fan don’t plan your playoff trip just yet.
Miami – The Dolphins can get into the playoffs in one very unlikely scenario – if they win (which means Pittsburgh loses), and the Jets, Ravens, Texans, and Jaguars all lose. They don’t exactly control their own destiny.
Here’s what’s crossing my mind as I get ready for a day of football action:
1. The Saints are favored by 10.5 in Atlanta. Can you imagine how crazy you would have thought I was if I had told you that that was going to be the spread back in July. Crazy, crazy stat – In the last eight years every team in the NFC South has gone from last one year to first the next – including New Orleans this year.
Three big personnel moves occurred in the NFL yesterday, and each of them is worth a discussion:
Ronnie Brown – The Dolphins’ impressive but fragile running back has been put on the IR, and that means he’s out for the season. This time it his right foot that is the problem. Back in 2007 it was his right leg. Maybe he should just amputate that leg and start over again. Needless to say, this is a big blow for an already fragile team. Only three teams have run better than the Dolphins this year, while only two teams have passed worse. Add in Brown’s impact as one of the only players in the league who can effectively run a wildcat and you have a big hole. They aren’t totally without hope – they still have Ricky Williams and he has looked good this year. Williams is a far more straight ahead, less versatile back than Brown is, though, and it’s doubtful that Williams will be able to lead a similarly effective running attack – if he can even stay healthy for the rest of the season.
Ryan Fitzgerald – Perry Fewell needed to make an impact quickly as the new head coach of the Bills, and he found the easiest way to do it – he changed his quarterback. The ineffective Trent Edwards has been benched in favor of the ineffective Ryan Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has had significant play in three games so far this year, and the team has earned two of their three wins in that time. He has thrown twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, and has completed less than half his passes, so it’s not a perfect solution. The Bills have been a truly terrible passing team this year, though, so it won’t hurt. None of it gives me any reason to even consider backing the Bills now or into the future.
Bruce Gradkowski – It took far too long, but the Raiders have finally come to their senses. They have benched JaMarcus Russell and given Gradkowski the reins. It’s not just a fleeting thing, either – coach Cable says that Gradkowski will be given a real chance to settle in and play. Gradkowski is not a great QB and he is in a brutal situation, so this isn’t going to make a significant change for the team. It still was the only thing to do. Russell has been absolutely terrible, and he is making absolutely no progress while he is playing. He probably won’t make any progress when he isn’t playing, either, but at least he won’t be making more truly terrible plays and crushing his final shreds of confidence and self respect. I can’t imagine that the team will be anything other than relieved by the change – it might even give them a boost. The good news is that Gradkowski barely has to do anything to be just as good as Russell.
1. How in the world does anyone lose to Washington right now? Denver should be ashamed. It’s a sign of just how good Kyle Orton has been this year – the team self-destructed when he was hurt and the terrible Chris Simms had to take over.
1. There isn’t a game on the schedule in which the two teams both need to win more than the Washington – Atlanta game. The Redskins need to stop the bleeding and get the focus off of what a circus their team has become. The Falcons need to stop the bleeding after their tremendous early promise was derailed bytwo losses in a row. 5-3 isn’t a bad place to be, but 4-4 would be a disaster.
1. Will Denver ever lose? If they are going to do it then this is a good place for it to happen – in Baltimore. The Ravens have been impressive in a lot of ways despite their 3-3 record. Really a few breaks either way and these teams could easily have the opposite records. I have a feeling that whichever team wins this one will really have proven something in the process.
Yesterday I touched on how uneven and uninspiring so many teams have been in the NFL has been this year. It’s really striking how large the gap is between the good teams and the not-so-good ones – bigger than usual, I think. As I was thinking about that earlier I was particularly struck by the sad state of quarterbacking in the league. There are always some QB problems, but I’m not sure that there is also this many teams in such a hopeless situation. Here’s a look at the worst offenders:
