This is a very interesting time when it comes to NFL win totals betting. They have been posted for a while now, so the initial action has bet out any obvious errors, but the public hasn’t yet paid a lot of attention to them. That likely means that the futures are somewhat more accurate now than they will be before the fans jump on the public teams. Because of that, looking at the odds right now shows us some very interesting trends and opinions. Based on the line movement and the prices available there are hints of some strong and interesting opinions held by those who have made bets so far. Here are 11 win totals that have seemed to have one-sided action so far. In each case the one-sided action can be a clue that the total is likely to change as the season nears, and it gives us something to think about when it comes to the teams (odds are form Bodog):
Buffalo under 5.5 – The action is heavily on the under here – the under is at -145 and the over is at +115 – and I can’t say I’m surprised. They made a questionable choice for a new coach, their quarterbacking situation doesn’t inspire confidence, free agents have little interest in them, they play in a tough division, and they have more holes than a block of swiss cheese. They just aren’t very good.
Denver over 7.5 – The action isn’t as one-sided here, but the momentum definitely seems to be on the over. It’s the second year of a new regime, and a change in defensive coordinator should put the coaching staff closer to the same page. They may not have a clear number one quarterback, but they aren’t hurting for options and potential. They won eight last year, and it seems like the majority so far think they can at least match that this year.
Green Bay over 9.5 – The over is at -155, so it’s clearly a widely held opinion that this total is too low. They won 11 last year despite a pretty lethargic first half which saw them at 4-4. Aaron Rodgers is a year older and more confident, and he has lots of tools around him. If this team can start playing to their potential right out of the gate then they have serious potential.
Indianapolis under 11 – The under is at -135, so early action has been bullish on Peyton and the boys. It’s unlikely that this team will ever truly struggle as long as Manning is in his prime. There doesn’t seem to be quite the magic around this squad this year, though. They haven’t improved as much as other teams have, and there are more questions than we are used to with this team.
Kansas City over 6.5 – I find this one very interesting. The over is at -140, so there is a lot of momentum on the over here. This is a team that won only four games last year, so this represents a huge step forward. With Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel newly arrived in town, though, optimism is high. Of course, optimism was high when Weis arrived in South Bend and we know how that turned out.
Miami over 8.5 – Momentum is on the over here, and I couldn’t agree more. Chad Henne is ready to make a step forward, and that step is going to be made a lot easier with Brandon Marshall in town as a target. This is a team with a lot of nice pieces, and I’m looking for them to make some noise.
New Orleans under 10.5 – With the under at -140 the early bettors clearly aren’t optimistic about the chances for the defending champs. It’s hard to argue with that opinion. They overachieved last year, they’ve lost some key pieces, and they can’t help but be distracted by all of the attention they have garnered since the win. Better teams than them have struggled after winning the title.
Philadelphia under 8.5 – The early action cannot be called Kevin Kolb fans. They won 11 games last year, but a fall of 2.5 wins isn’t enough for bettors after Donovan McNabb left and Kolb took over. With McNabb and likely Brian Westbrook out of town this team is going to have a totally new offensive face. This action would indicate that growing pains are expected during the transition.
Pittsburgh over 8.5 – Big Ben could be out for six games to start the season, but the early action doesn’t seem to worried. They won nine games last year, and since the over is at -130 it seems like the majority of bettors so far seem to think that they will at least match that. Despite all of the turmoil they have faced off the field, this team has built confidence by doing two key things – ensuring that there are good replacement options on board for Roethlisberger, and promoting stability by giving coach Mike Tomlin an extension.
San Francisco over 8.5 – I’ve been optimistic about the Niners for so many years now that it’s a bit of a joke – especially because they never seem to come through for me. This year, though, I am not alone in my optimism. The over is at -140, so action has clearly tilted towards the over so far. Their talent is impressive on both sides of the ball, and their division is prime for a takeover, so this is a very achievable total if they play like they obviously can.
St. Louis under 5 – This seems like a bizarrely optimistic total, so it’s not a wonder that the under has been solidly favored and now sits at -130. Sam Bradford is a huge step in the right direction for the team, but he has only barely played in the last year, and he is short of real weapons to make an impact this year. A jump from one win to six in one year would be massive – especially when the team didn’t really underachieve to get just one win – and this team hasn’t yet done enough to pull that off.
All NFL regular season win total odds were taken from Bodog who offers NFL betting this season and is a trusted name in the online sportsbook industry.
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