Maddux Sports Blog

Will the world end without Tiger? If you are the commissioner of the PGA you probably think so right about now. If you have been living under a rock today and missed the news, Tiger Woods will miss the rest of the season because he needs reconstructive knee surgery. Not that he needed, but he totally added to his legend this weekend - it turns out that he was not only playing with a torn ligament in his knee, but his leg had been fractured in two places when he was preparing for the tournament, yet he didn’t tell anyone and went out and won. It’s not a wonder he was wincing in pain from time to time.

This will change the dynamics of betting on golf until the big man returns next year. When I heard the news here are the few things that first ran through my mind.

1. Man, is Phil Mickelson ever a pansy. He had a sore wrist last year and the way he carried on you’d think that his arm had been ripped off by a crocodile. He was terrible and he milked it for all it’s worth. Tiger had and injury that was at least as bad for a golfer to deal with, and all he did was play 91 holes to win a major. It’s not a wonder that Phil can’t hold Tiger’s towel.

2. This could be a great thing for golf bettors. Public interest will fall off significantly without the biggest drawing card in sports. That should mean that the lines will be softer and there can be more mistakes to exploit. That being said, the one problem is that the odds of the favorites who aren’t named after big cats will be lower than we have become used to because there won’t be a heavy favorite sucking up the cash.

3. Things are going to be wide open, and it will take a shift in mentality to pick winners. Up until now, the bigger golf tournaments have involved just one major decision - are you with Tiger or are you against him? Now it will take more work and a more legitimate handicapping effort. In other words, we actually have to work now.

4. I am dreading the British Open broadcast. I am setting the over/under on Tiger references at 57 per hour, and I’d still take the over.

5. The odds that Tiger will win his first tournament back? About +185 in my book.

Four rounds and 72 holes weren’t enough to determine the winner of the U.S. Open. In most tournaments that would mean that they played an extra hole or two and ended up with a winner. Not at the Open. Their playoff is at least 18 more holes, and more beyond that if needed. On paper the final is a total mismatch. On one hand you have the greatest golfer ever born, Tiger Woods (I make that pronouncement confidently and without qualification). On the other hand you have a 45 year old guy in Rocco Mediate who hasn’t won a tournament since the Greater Greensboro Chrysler Classic in 2002. Tiger has won 13 Majors. Mediate has four top tens, and before this year had never finished better than fourth. In the last eight Majors, Tiger has three wins and three seconds. Over the same stretch, Mediate has only played in two - a withdraw and a cut. Woods is ridiculously more qualified. It isn’t even close.

Given all of that, it isn’t at all surprising that Tiger is an overwhelming favorite (-382 at Pinnacle). I wouldn’t give that a thought if it weren’t for the fact that Tiger is clearly not at 100 percent with hs knee. If he was then he would have eaten the rest of the field for lunch when he went into the final round with a lead. Instead he struggled and needed a miracle putt to force this playoff. That’s not how it was supposed to turn out today. It also means that you can’t help but wonder if the fat +352 price on the underdog is fat enough to make it worth a bet. Can he beat a guy who is so incredibly good, but was so obviously hurting on Saturday that there were legitimate rumors that he might not even play on Sunday?

Woods is the deserved favorite, but here are three reasons why Mediate may be worth a shot. It might not be the best bet ever, but at the very least it is more interesting betting on the cagey underdog than the robotic favorite, and it makes a much better story if you win:

1. Tiger’s injury - I am so sick of hearing about Tiger’s meniscus that I just might puke. No matter how overplayed and over-discussed the knee injury might be, it is crucially important here. He clearly isn’t healthy. If this were a short playoff then I wouldn’t be that worried because he could rely on adrenaline to play through it. It’s a full round, though, so this is a totally different thing. Tiger was worse physically on Saturday than Friday, and worse on Sunday than Saturday. There is a very real chance that he will be even worse on Monday. How big is that chance? Hard to tell, but if I had to quantify the chances it would be far more likely that he will struggle physically than these odds suggest. That’s a check mark in Rocco’s favor.

2. Rocco’s experience - Mediate isn’t a PGA superstar, and he never has been in his career, but he has been around the block. And around it again. And around a few more times. He turned pro in 1986, and he has overcome serious injuries and setbacks to win five PGA events. That’s more than a lot of guys can claim, including several major winners. He’s seen and done enough that he probably isn’t going to melt down under pressure. He’s been around Woods for a long time, he knows all about how to perform and what it takes, and he shouldn’t be intimidated in the playoff. Don’t get me wrong - Tiger has a massive edge in experience. It’s just that I have a lot more faith in Mediate when it comes to withstanding the pressure than I would in most guys. On the plus side, Mediate has never played an 18 hole playoff for a Major, but then neither has Woods. On that count they are in the same boat.

3. Nothing to lose - Mediate isn’t an idiot, so he knows that this is quite likely his last shot to win a Major. He’s 45, his back is a wreck, and he has struggled to make a cut this year, so his PGA career is on borrowed time and he knows it. That could be depressing, but he sure isn’t playing like it this week. If he has the right mindset on Monday then he will be able to let it all hang out and aggressively go for it because there is truly no reason to do anything else. I can’t profess to know much about Mediate, so I can’t say how he will respond in the final. The chance that he will rise up and shine (like he already has) combined with everything else that is a factor here, makes him an entertaining and not at all disastrous bet. It’s not the way to get rich quick, but I don’t think it is throwing money away, either. I look at it this way - there is no way in the world I would bet on Tiger at his price, so Mediate can’t be that unattractive.

• I don’t know what is wrong with Barry Zito, but it is something big. The guy has a world of talent, but he just isn’t right. In fact, he’s a mess. He blew up again today at home against the Diamondbacks - three earned runs and one more unearned in six innings. Of most concern he walked five and only struck out two. You can blame some of his woes on the fact he plays for a lousy team, but by far the bigger issue is that he just isn’t very good. He’s a space cadet, so this can’t be good on his mind, and I can’t be confident in his ability to overcome the problem. Maybe it will turn around, but it is much harder to find a precedent for that than it is to find one for him being done for as an elite pitcher.
• Memphis has lost a lot with the departure of Derrick Rose and probably Chris Douglas-Roberts and the graduation of Joey Dorsey. Things just got a whole lot easier for them today, though, with the signing of another one-and-done superstar. Tyreke Evans is a shooting guard out of Philadelphia who was the MVP of the McDonald’s All-American game this year. He is pretty much a perfect fit for Calipari’s system, and he will make it unpleasant to play in Conference USA for another year.
• Alfonso Soriano is on the DL after straining his calf making a catch. That’s not good news for the Cubs - at least theoretically. Soriano has been brutal so far this year, but he is much better than he has been playing and should be due for an upward adjustment.
• It is curious that Tiger hasn’t really used his knee injury as an excuse for his flat showing at the Masters. It was obviously serious if he went ahead and had the surgery so soon afterward, but I wonder how much of an impact it really had? He didn’t look like he had a bad knee, but he didn’t look right, either. We’ll have to wait for a month or more to get our first clue, I guess.
• I was more than a little surprised that Keno Davis bolted Drake so soon to take over at Providence. That is a step forward, but he’s not stepping into a program in great shape, and he had a family link at Drake and a good deal of success in a short time. Maybe he just knew when to get out when he was ahead. It will be very interesting to watch to see whether he just caught lightning in a bottle, or if he is the real deal. If it is the latter then Providence will be back in the coaching market in just a couple of years.

As I sit here thinking about the tournament, and about the sports betting world in general, here are 10 questions that are bouncing through my mind:

1. Can Western Kentucky be remotely competitive against UCLA? - Their center is Jeremy Evans, a 6′9″ sophomore who weighs in at a whopping 190 pounds. Kevin Love is taller and 70 pounds heavier. I think I fear for Evans’ life.

2. Is Lofton’s injury for real? - Tennessee’s heart and soul is reportedly wearing a walking cast after suffering a light injury against Butler. Maybe. Everyone says he will be fine for the game, and I wouldn’t put it past Bruce Pearl to mess with Louisville’s heads by overplaying the injury. At the very least it takes attention off the fact that the Vols don’t have a point guard.

3. Can Davidson do to Butch what it did to Hibbert? - Davidson’s speed and brilliant guard play frustrated Hibbert all day and rendered him close to useless. That’s almost entirely why they won. That was against the best team in the country at defending the field goal. Now they have to do it all over again against the third best team. Butch is a bit more versatile than Hibbert, but if Davidson can work the same magic then this game could be very interesting. If Davidson can turn it into a shooting contest then they win. And then Stephen Curry could run for president and win.

4. What will Mitch Johnson do? - The Lopez twins get the attention, but Stanford beat Marquette because point guard Johnson got 16 assists. His previous season high was eight. Texas is a huge step up in class, and Johnson will have to perform well again to help his team. Can he? What can we expect? He obviously won’t have 16 again, but Marquette plays solid defense and Johnson only turned it over once, so he is obviously in a zone of some sort. Good play from Johnson will allow the Lopez boys to exert their serious size advantage over Texas.

5. Is Xavier being disrespected? - Xavier is a three seed and West Virginia is a seven, yet the Mountaineers are favored by as much as 1.5 points. Is that unfair or is it a reflection of reality? I like Xavier much more than West Virginia in general, but depth-on-depth I don’t see how the Musketeers don’t have an edge. I also think that West Virginia is in for a shock because unlike Duke this team actually plays very tight defense and actually gets a rebound or two. I’m explaining West Virginia’s unexpected (to me) favoritism away by them beating Duke, the ultimate public team, and because Joe Alexander is way more visible than any of Xavier’s players.

6. Is David Padgett ready for the big time? - I don’t want to oversimplify, but if the Louisville big man steps up and has a huge game then Louisville will win because Tennessee has no good answer for him. Padgett definitely can do it. It’s just a question of whether he will.

7. Does Villanova have a chance against Kansas? - The odds say no given that the spread is 11.5, and my instinct is the same, but then I didn’t think they had much of a chance in their first game, either, and that turned out just fine. Scottie Reynolds is firing on all cylinders, and he will give Kansas a test. I’m not saying I am picking Nova by any mens. I just think it could be interesting.

8. Was Josh Howard making a statement? - In the first game without Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas’ de facto leader came out and had a huge game with 32 points. I’d say that that was a statement game, and that he is showing he is readying to lead a team that desperately needs a leader, but I have two reservations. First, it was only against the Clippers. I think I could get 15 against the Clippers, and I haven’t played on a team since junior high. Second, Howard was sent to the line a ridiculous 15 times, and he was perfect in those attempts. Lower the opportunities and his shooting percentage down to more reasonable levels and you are left with a more pedestrian game. Howard could certainly step up, but I am still reserving judgment over whether he will because this game proved nothing.

9. Can we fold the NBA East? - The Nuggets are sitting outside of the playoffs in the West at 43-28. The Hawks have the eighth spot in the East at 30-40. That is wrong on so many levels. There is a decent chance that a 50 win team won’t make the playoffs in the West. In the East that would get you home court advantage.

10. What’s wrong with Tiger? - How bizarre is the world of golf when a guy finishes fifth in a tournament out of well over 100 guys and you have to wonder what went wrong?