Worst NFL Game Of The Week – No contest here. There are a few games that aren’t particularly interesting, but only one that is virtually assured to truly and epically suck. Detroit is terrible. The Texans have some bright points, but they aren’t ready for prime time yet. It’s a clear sign of just how bad this game could be that Houston is favored by nine. A 1-4 team should not be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone.
Best NFL Game Of The Week – Given the sudden resurgence of the Browns and the fall from grace of the Redskins maybe it is their game because we have no way of knowing what is coming. It could have been New Orleans and Carolina, but it lost some of its’ charm with the blowout loss by Carolina this weekend. That leaves us with San Diego at Buffalo. If the Chargers can look half as good as they did against New England ths weekend then this will be a very good way to get a sense of whether the Bills are contenders.
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Month: October 2008
1. Convinced that the Big 12 is the best conference this year yet? The conference is so loaded and tough that they absolutely cannibalized each other this weekend. Oklahoma State was the lesser Missouri before this weekend, but for now at least that has been reversed. Texas spent a lot of their game looking like they were determined to lose, but finished on a vengeance and, strangely, claimed the top spot in the poll. For now the power structure of the conference is clear, but you get the real feeling that that could all change several times over this year, starting next week when Texas and Missouri meet.
Texas (+6) at Oklahoma – These teams both have underrated defenses (though the Longhorns quickly need to figure out how to stop the pass), and quarterbacks that are pretty much as good as it gets in the college ranks. The stakes are incredibly high – the winner is the temporary king of the incredibly tough Big 12, and the loser quite probably sees their national championship aspirations end. On top of that all, this is one of the two or three most heated rivalries in the country, and the neutral ground and evenly split crowd gives it a special feel. This should be a great one.
There is always all sorts of news about injuries in the sports news, but there is a particularly large amount today that directly affects betting decisions through the weekend:
Charlie Manuel: This isn’t directly an injury, but the Phillies’ manager lost his 87 year old mother today. He is staying to manage the game against the Dodgers. Manuel is very well liked by hos players, so I expect this to be a boost to the team. They will be playing for him. It’s also not that likely that he will be too distracted to be at his best – his mother had had a heart attack earlier in the week and wasn’t doing well, but he still managed a heck of a game in game one. I don’t know which team you like in this one, but I think that this is a check mark to put in Philadelphia’s column.
Continue reading “In and Out: Injuries and Other Happenings For The Betting Weekend”
My PlayStation prognostications got off to a terrible start in the first week, going 0-3, but it rebounded very nicely this week with a 2-1 mark. If you haven’t been following it, I am having my PS2 simulate three college games each week using NCAA 09. Let’s see what happens this week. The machine is feeling a little cocky.
Texas (+6) vs. Oklahoma – The Red River Rivalry is one of my four or five favorite games of the year. I don’t have a particular tie to either team, but as a general rule I hate Oklahoma less. Given that, the results of the simulation worked very well for me. Texas couldn’t get much going, and Colt McCoy made more mistakes than expected, as Texas lost to Oklahoma 38-14. Sam Bradford is my favorite QB in the country right now, and he showed why in this game, throwing for four touchdowns and running for a fifth. Texas turned it over four times, including two picks by McCoy. This game is such a big one, because it probably effectively ends the season of the losing team. Those stakes on top of the screaming, divided crowd should make this one a classic. My machine says Oklahoma will cruise to the easy cover.
Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin – My first thought when I saw this spread was that it didn’t give Paterno’s boys enough credit. My PS2 agrees. The spread HD has been a potent offense this year, and the prowess continued. Wisconsin got out to a strong early start, and was actually up 14-0 in the second quarter, but then the wheels fell off. Penn State had 31 unanswered points, and ended up winning it 45-24. Evan Royster was again a big part, adding 112 yards and two touchdowns. Daryll Clark had two interceptions that he probably wishes he could have back, but he made up for it with five TD passes. Paterno continues to prove that you don’t have to be able to walk or stay up past 6:00 p.m. to coach well.
LSU (+6) at Florida – The machine was loving the favorites so far, but the trend ends here. This was a hard fought battle that was more defensive than some might have expected, and in the end the Tigers lost, but just by a field goal – 17-14. Tim Tebow ran and passed for a TD, but turned it over twice as well. A further blow for the Heisman defense. Jarrett Lee passed for both LSU scores. Showing how realistic these simulations can be, the incredibly fragile and overrated Percy Harvin was injured in the game.
Continue reading “WWMPD – What Would My PlayStation Do This Week?”
Worst NFL Game of the Week – There are a couple that could fit the bill here. There’s an NFC North showdown between Detroit and Minnesota that doesn’t have a lot to offer. I know Minnesota is coming off a big Monday night win, but I am still stunned how a team can be outplayed that badly and still come out ahead. Detroit is just plain terrible. There’s another game, though, that I think has the potential to be even worse – the Holmgren Bowl. Green Bay is a struggling team – they lost to Atlanta, after all. Seattle’s just a mess. They won’t be at their worst because this isn’t in the eastern time zone, but they still aren’t very pretty. Two flawed teams in a funk meeting up – sounds like a recipe for a late afternoon nap.
A few things occupying my thoughts:
Monday Night Football is just a couple of hours away. I am torn in the game. The big thing that stops me from backing New Orleans enthusiastically is the loss of Sedrick Ellis. I have no idea what the impact of his absence will be, but I am very curious to find out. He’s really coming into his own, and he would have made it much harder for Minnesota to run. Since they can’t really pass, that would have been important. This isn’t going to be a classic game, but it is certainly an interesting one to consider. Talented but terribly flawed teams.
1. Alabama isn’t as good as we thought. I don’t like Kentucky much at all. This should be a rebuilding year for them. That makes it more than a bit concerning to me that they played the Tide as close as they did. Any team can have a bad day – just ask USC or Ohio State. My concern with Alabama, though, is that Kentucky was able to set the tone on both sides of the ball at times, and they were able to completely neutralize the passing game. That doesn’t bode well for a team that still has two or three tough games ahead. I know that they beat up on Georgia, but I don’t like them, either. My comfortable prediction – Alabama won’t finish the year in the top five.
Once again, here’s a look at the games this week that are catching my eye. As always, I want to be clear that these are picked out because they have interesting storylines, not because I suggest that they are good bets, or that I am making a pick. When I am looking at games I definitely differentiate between the games that I am interested in betting and the ones I am interesting in exploring further. These games fit into the latter, and they are just fun to think about. Put another way – some games I only watch because I bet on them. These are the games I would watch whether I had any action or not.
Time once again to look at what NCAA 09 on my PlayStation 2 has to say about three of this week’s more interesting games. If last week was any indication, you might want to do exactly the opposite of what it says – the machine was an ugly 0-3 ATS. We’ll see if it can do better before we give up on it entirely. As with last time the machine will do all of the work, and I have updated the rosters accordingly. Without further ado:
Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt – This one didn’t entirely mirror an Auburn game – there was actually scoring. It also wasn’t entirely typical because Auburn’s offense was more effective through the air than on the ground. QB Chris Todd had a ruthlessly efficient game, ending up with three TDs and a gaudy QB rating. Chris Nickson wasn’t nearly that effective, but that fits with reality – he is not a passing machine. In the end, Auburn came from behind to win 28-21 and cover the spread.
Oregon (+16.5) at USC – USC needed to bounce back in a big way from a terrible effort last week. Though it wasn’t pretty, they pretty much did. The final score was 20-0, so their fearsome defense was actually fearsome again. Oregon was truly terrible, managing just 75 yards in total offense. Their quarterback problems finally caught up to them. Mark Sanchez only completed 55 percent of his passes, and had just one TD, but at least he eliminated the mistakes that were so costly against the other team from Oregon.
Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin – The Badgers shouldn’t have lost to Michigan last week, and they played like they were still too ombarrassed by that to focus. They got behind early to the Buckeyes, and though they fought hard they just couldn’t come back to win. Ohio State ended up winning 24-17. They did it mostly on the ground. Beanie Wells had a solid game, complete with a touchdown. The star, once again, was Terrelle Pryor. He threw for a touchdown, and scampered 75 yards for another one.
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