When you are betting on the UFC there are two very distinct types of cards to choose from – the pay-per-view events and those that are available on broadcast television. The PPV events are at the core of the business model for the UFC, and are where most of the high profile fights are, but Dana White and company are getting far more aggressive recently in their pursuit of broadcast outlets – including a contract with an American network. For bettors there are some distinct differences between betting on PPV cards and betting on others. Here’s a look at five of those differences to keep in mind to improve your success with UFC betting:
Card are higher profile on PPVs – As a general rule the PPV cards are where the titles are contested, and where the highest profile fighters fight. That may change as the broadcast outlets develop, but for now it is certainly true. There are a number of different impacts that come with higher profile fights. First, obviously public interest is going to be higher for the fights. It only makes sense that he biggest names draw the most interest. Along with the public interest the media attention will also be also be more intense for higher profile cards. It’s important for bettors to keep track of media interest and the storylines they are most focused on because of the impact that can have on public opinion, and therefore on line movement and where value can be found. Higher profile fights also typically feature more experienced fighters, and perhaps more evenly matched opponents as well, so the more high profile a fight is the less likely that there is a mismatch that gives one fighter a big edge over the other.
Betting volumes are higher on PPV – As public and media interest grows in events the betting volume will increase for the fights. The majority of that volume growth comes from the betting public – people who aren’t frequent MMA bettors but are drawn to bet on the biggest and most highly promoted fights. Public bettors tend to rely more on hype, reputation, emotion, and media coverage than on sound handicapping. That often makes them very predictable. When the oddsmakers can predict what the public is likely to do they are able to set the odds in order to exploit those biases as well as they possibly can. The higher the betting volume is, and the more public interest there is, the more smart bettors need to pay attention to what the public is likely to think and what that means for the odds.
Spontaneous bets could be higher on free events – A spontaneous bet is one that a bettor wasn’t planning on making. These happen when someone happens upon an event on television, or sees a commercial for an event that coming up soon. The more spontaneous a bet is the less intelligent it is likely to be, and the more likely it is to be on the more obvious fighter. These bets will come close to the actual event, so could be an explanation for late line movement.
More media coverage likely on PPV events – We’ve talked about this already, but it’s important enough to look at more closely. The more high profile an event is the more media coverage there will be. The hardcore MMA outlets will cover every event, but the more mainstream outlets will only cover the higher profile events. When coverage is only part time the analysis isn’t likely to be as insightful and the conclusions are likely to be more obvious and more targeted at the general public. That means that the more media coverage there is the more likely it is that the public biases will be reinforced.
Quality of free depends on where it is broadcast – Not all free broadcasts are equal. Those that are shown on a broadcast network in primetime are going to be better than those on a cable channel, and those shown for free online will be of a lesser level than anything on TV. The less prestigious an outlet is and the less reach it has the less public exposure there will be in a fight, and the higher percentage of bettors will be informed and prepared because only the hardcore fans and bettors will be drawn to bet.