NFL Week 5 Picks: Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 10/7/12, 1:00 PM EST, TV:  CBS
Opening Point Spread:  Cincinnati -5.5
Current Betting Line:  Cincinnati -3
Opening Total:  44
Current Total:  45.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the better QB-WR combos in the NFL

Miami has suffered back-to-back overtime losses to the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals, while both games went OVER the posted total.  The Dolphins really killed themselves in last week’s 24-21 setback to the Cardinals despite winning the statistical battle by 183 yards, as they committed three turnovers in the final nine minutes.  “That’s not a good recipe to win games,” commented Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin.  The franchise owns a 14-5 series lead over Cincinnati, including a 22-14 victory as one-point road favorites on Oct. 31, 2010.  Miami is 9-2 ATS after losing two of its previous three games.

The Dolphins have leaned heavily on running back Reggie Bush offensively, gaining 369 yards on the ground, but rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill is starting to show signs of becoming a quality player in the National Football League.  On the defensive side of the ball, Miami has limited opposing signal-callers to a 77.9 passer rating, which should provide more victories.  The seven teams that rank ahead of them in that category are a combined 22-6 entering this week’s action.

Cincinnati is 3-1 for the first time in franchise history when three of the first four games have been played on the road.  The Bengals face a major challenge in playing the Dolphins inside Paul Brown Stadium, as their opponent is allowing just 56.8 yards per game on the ground.  Defensively, the team entered last week’s 27-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars with one of the league’s worst units, but allowed only 212 yards.  Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS versus AFC East competition the last two-plus seasons.

The Browns continue to be led by their second-year combo offensively, with quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green putting up great numbers.  They connected six times for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars.  Dalton has been incredible in the fourth quarter this season, compiling a 151.7 passer rating, throwing for 313 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions.  It’s important to note that this club currently leads the NFL with 17 sacks entering another round of action.

Sports bettors will likely back the Bengals due to their 4-0 ATS mark in October, while the Dolphins are just 4-4 ATS after suffering two or more consecutive losses.

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