2016 NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals – Game #2
#7 Indiana Pacers at #2 Toronto Raptors
Pacers Lead Best of Seven Series 1-0
Air Canada Centre – Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Monday, April 18, 2016, 7:05 pm Eastern, TV: NBA TV
Opening Line: Toronto -7
Current Line: Toronto -7 1/2
Opening Total: 193
Current Total: 194 1/2
Opening Money Line: Raptors -320 / Pacers +255
Current Money Line: Raptors -340 / Pacers +280
In all the game ones of the NBA playoffs, the home team went 7-1. The only loss came for the Toronto Raptors who lost at home to the Indiana Pacers 100-90 Saturday. It was the third straight season Toronto lost game one at home in the first round of the playoffs. In each of those seasons, the Raptors went on to lose the series. Toronto looks to rebound in game two Monday night.
Indiana is coached by Frank Vogel. The Pacers finished 45-37 and were in second place in the Central Division behind the Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 games. Indiana is the #7 seed in the Eastern Conference. Indiana is 42-40-1 ATS and the total is 37-46 this season.
Toronto is coached by Dwayne Casey. The Raptors won the Atlantic Division for the third straight season with a 56-26 record by 8 games over the Boston Celtics. Toronto is the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference but they were only a game behind the Cavaliers. The Raptors are 45-36 ATS and the total is 42-40-1 this season.
In game one Saturday, Toronto was a 7 point favorite and the total was 195. Toronto led 45-43 at halftime but Indiana dominated the second half in a 10 point win. Toronto had 19 turnovers and shot 38% from the field. Indiana forward Paul George had a huge game with 33 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds and 4 steals. Toronto stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan went a combined 8/32 from the field.
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Indiana is outscoring teams 102-101 this season. The Pacers are #8 in points allowed in the league. Indiana is shooting 45% from the field and 35.1% from three point range. The Pacers make 76.4% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44% from the field and 33.4% from three point range. The Pacers are #6 or better in both categories. Indiana averages 44.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 44.5 per game. The Pacers average 21.2 assists, 14.3 turnovers, 9.1 steals and 4.8 blocks per game.
Forward Paul George will likely win the Comeback Player of the year after missing all but a handful of games last season with a horrific broken leg. He averages 23.1 points, 7 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. He is probable with an ankle injury. Guard Monta Ellis averages 13.8 points, 3.3 rebounds 4.7 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Guard George Hill averages 12.1 points, 4 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Forward C.J. Miles averages 11.8 points and 2.7 rebounds per game. He is probable with a shoulder injury. Forward Myles Turner averages 10.3 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Ian Mahinmi, Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen and Ty Lawson will also get minutes in the rotation.
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Toronto is outscoring teams 103-98 this season. The Raptors are #3 in points allowed this season. Toronto is shooting 45.1% from the field and 37% from three point range. The Raptors are #5 in three point shooting. Toronto makes 77.7% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 37.3% from three point range. The Raptors are #29 in three point defense. Toronto averages 43.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 40.8 per game. The Raptors are #4 in rebounds allowed. Toronto averages 18.7 assists, 12.1 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 5.5 blocks per game.
Guard DeMar DeRozan averages 23.5 points per game, 4.5 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 steal per game. Guard Kyle Lowry averages 21.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Center Jonas Valanciunas averages 12.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. Forward DeMarre Carroll averages 11 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. Terrance Ross, Luis Scola, Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, Bismack Biyambo and James Johnson will also get some minutes in the rotation.
Indiana is 4-0 ATS overall and against Eastern Conference teams, 4-1 after a straight up win and in Conference quarterfinal games. Four of the last five games in Toronto in this series have gone over the total.
Toronto is 5-0 ATS after failing to cover, 4-0 after a straight up loss, 4-1 after allowing 100 points or more and at home, 3-7 in Monday games, 5-15-1 in conference quarterfinal games, and 2-6 on one day rest. The Raptors are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games against the Pacers and have covered 22 of the last 30 at home in the series.
Lowry and DeRozan simply have to play better. George was by far the best player on either side Saturday. Toronto likes to think they are a contender to challenge Cleveland in the East, but they certainly didn’t look like it on Saturday. If this team is as good as they think they are, they rebound with a convincing performance in game two against a team they beat three out of four times in the regular season. I think the Raptors take a split before the series shifts to Indianapolis.