NBA Playoffs Betting Picks: Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Game Two

2016 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Quarterfinals Game #2
#6 Dallas Mavericks vs #3 Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Lead Best of Seven Series 1-0
Monday, April 18, 2016, 8:05 pm Eastern, TV: TNT
Chesapeake Energy Arena – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Opening Line: Oklahoma City -12 1/2
Current Line: Oklahoma City -13 1/2
Opening Total: 203 1/2
Current Total: 200
Opening Money Line: Thunder -1300 / Mavericks +800
Current Money Line: Thunder -1450 / Mavericks +950

The Oklahoma City Thunder look to take a commanding 2-0 lead against the Dallas Mavericks.
The Oklahoma City Thunder look to take a commanding 2-0 lead against the Dallas Mavericks.

In the four Western Conference first round games over the weekend, the home teams won by an average of 29 points. The #3 seed Oklahoma City Thunder crushed the #6 seed Dallas Mavericks, 108-70 in game one of the first round Saturday. Game two is Monday night in Oklahoma City.

Dallas is coached by Rick Carlisle. Dallas went 42-40 and tied for second in the Southwest Division with the Memphis Grizzlies, but both teams were 25 games behind the San Antonio Spurs. The Mavericks won the tiebreaker over the Grizzlies for the #6 seed in the Western Conference. Dallas is 45-37-1 ATS and the total is 39-43-1 this season.

Oklahoma City is coached by Billy Donovan. Oklahoma City is 55-27 and won the Northwest Division by 11 games over the Portland Trail Blazers. OKC is 38-44-3 ATS and the total is 39-44 this season.

In game one Saturday, Oklahoma City was a 12 point favorite and the total was 206. The Thunder jumped out to a 9-0 lead and never looked back in a 38 point rout. OKC led by as many as 44 points. In fact when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook left the game midway through the third, the duo had outscored the entire Mavericks team 47-42. Dallas shot a dreadful 29.8% from the field.

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Dallas is being outscored 102.6-102.2 this season. The Mavericks are shooting 44.4% from the field and 34.4% from three point range. Dallas is #20 or worse in both categories. The Mavericks make 79.4% of their free throws and are #3 in the league. Opponents are shooting 45.1% from the field and 34.2% from three point range. Dallas averages 43.1 rebounds per game and opponents average 45.8 per game. Dallas averages 22.1 assists, 12.3 turnovers, 6.8 steals and 3.7 blocks per game.

Forward Dirk Nowitzki averages 18.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Deron Williams averages 14.1 points, 2.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. He is out with a hernia. Forward Chandler Parsons is out for the season with a knee injury. He averaged 13.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Wesley Matthews averages 12.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1 steal per game. J.J. Barea averages 10.9 points, 2.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He is out with a groin injury. Raymond Felton, Zaza Pachulia, David Lee and Devin Harris will also get minutes in the rotation. Lee is out with a heel injury. Jeremy Evans is out for the season with a shoulder injury.

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Oklahoma City is outscoring teams 110-103 this season. The Thunder are #2 in scoring in the league. OKC is shooting 47.6% from the field and 34.9% from three point range. The Thunder are #3 in field goal shooting. Oklahoma City makes 78.2% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 43.8% from the field and 34.2% from three point range. The Thunder are #8 or better in both categories. OKC averages 48.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 40.2 per game. The Thunder are #2 in rebounds allowed and #1 in rebounding. Oklahoma City averages 23 assists, 15.5 turnovers, 7.4 steals and 5.9 blocks per game.

Kevin Durant averages 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal and 1.2 blocks per game. Russell Westbrook averages 23.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 10.4 assists and 2 steals per game. He had 18 triple doubles this season to tie Magic Johnson in 1981-82 for the most in the last last 40 seasons. Center Enes Kanter averages 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Forward Serge Ibaka averages 12.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Dion Waiters averages 9.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal per game. Steven Adams, Randy Foye, Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Nick Collison, and Andre Roberson will also get minutes in the rotation. Payne and Collison are both probable.  Forward Mitch McGary is questionable for personal reasons.

Dallas is 5-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more, after failing to cover, and against Northwest teams, 4-1 after a straight up loss of more than 10 points, 7-2 in Monday games, 6-2 against teams with winning home records, 8-3 in road games, and 1-6 in first round games. The road team is 35-17-2 ATS in this series recently. The underdog is 28-13-1 ATS recently. The Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in OKC recently.

Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in Monday games, 5-1 after a straight up win by 10 points or more, overall, against Western Conference teams, and on one day rest, 9-2 against teams with winning records, 4-1 at home, against teams with losing road records, and after scoring 100 points or more, 3-1 in first round games, 5-2 after a straight up win and after a cover. While the over is 5-2 overall in the series, six of the last eight games in OKC between the teams have gone under the total.

Without Williams or Barea, it could get even worse for the Mavericks than in game one. Nowitzki is a first ballot Hall-of-Famer but he can’t do it alone. I like the Thunder to win in another rout.

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