Maddux Sports Blog

Once more with a look forward to the weekend:

Worst NFL game of the week - This is getting pretty easy. You just look at the games involving Kansas City and St. Louis and decide which one is more painful. That has worked so far, but I am actually going to do something different this time around. Kansas City hosts Denver. That won’t be exciting, and the Chiefs won’t win, but the Broncos have an explosive offense and should be able to burn up the scoreboard. Scoring is fun to watch. Buffalo visits St. Louis. That one will be interesting for a couple of reasons - we can see what Trent Edwards can do in a glorified practice, and we can see if Trent Green still has any game. That leaves me with my choice - Cleveland at Cincinnati. Two broken teams with enormous problems. The potential for true terribleness.

Best NFL game of the week - Washington and Dallas is an interesting divisional battle, and Philly at Chicago could be good, but my clear choice is one that wasn’t even on the radar at the start of the year - Minnesota at Tennessee. The Vikes are hungry and desperate for wins. The Titans are strong defensively, and surprisingly competent on offense. Probably won’t be an offensive thriller, but should be interesting, and will really be well coached.

Games with teams with most to prove - San Diego at Oakland. The Chargers have to rebuild from their horrible start, and keep the momentum going from Monday night. Oakland might have some pride, but their coach, if he is still their coach, is on a personal vendetta to make his owner look like the ridiculous moron he is.

Ridiculously over-hyped - No game specifically fits into this category, but you can rest assured that the Dallas hype machine is going to shift into an extra gear with every win.

Oddest line - Dallas (-11) vs. Washington. I get it that Dallas is very good, and I truly believe in them, but Washington is a decent team and a division rival that will be fired up with a coach that has a lot to prove. Dallas should certainly be favored, but I see it as a sign of public euphoria and nothing more that they are favored by this much.

Best college game of the week - The obvious choice would be Alabama at Georgia, but I am still on strike from the SEC until they prove that they can play interesting football with at least a hint of offense. This game should probably have that, but I’m still hesitant on principle. Instead, I am going to go out on a limb and pick one that the bookmakers think will be lopsided - TCU (+17.5) at Oklahoma. I am of the current but obviously fluid opinion that the Sooners are the second best team in the country. I’m also of the opinion that the Mountain West is very good - the fourth best conference in my eyes behind the SEC and the Big’s 12 and Ten. TCUhas played well on both sides of the ball this year, and will be on a mission. It could be close, or Oklahoma could put on a real show. Either way it is very interesting.

Filling me with dread - Michigan opens their conference schedule this week against Wisconsin. The Badgers are really good and Michigan really isn’t. Unless the Wolverines used their week off to recruit new players and learn to play football this one could get really ugly for my boys.

Four interesting games between unranked teams - North Carolina (+8) at Miami. Two ACC teams on a steady climb. Both have been better than expected this year so far. Only one can survive here. Fresno State (-6.5) at UCLA. Just how low can the Bruins go? It seems almost impossible to believe they started their season with an upset win. Buffalo (+6.5) at Central Michigan. This is a potential thriller between two impressive MAC teams that know how to score. The stakes are high in this one which could be a preview of the MAC Championship. Virginia Tech (+7) at Nebraska. So far, Bo Pellini has made it look easy. This is his first real test, though, so this is our chance to see just how far the Huskers have come.

Biggest line - Texas A&M is favored by 28 in a game that I can’t find any merit in whatsoever. Army is outclassed by virtually anyone in Division I, and the Aggies have been weak so far. Not a good game by any definition.

We’re going to try another new feature for the football season. Each Monday we are going to look back at some of the teams that the large majority of people weren’t backing that nonetheless managed to cover the spread. We’ll look back at their stats or their performance coming in to see what could have tipped us off to the eventual outcome. In other words, we’ll go back and make a case for betting on the eventual winners. This is my way of saying ‘I knew it all along’, even when I didn’t necessarily. This isn’t to suggest that the underdogs were always the right pick. It’s just that doing this can fulfill two important roles - it can potentially help us learn for next time, and it can be therapy to ease the pain of losses. Without further ado:

Tampa Bay (+3) at Chicago - Two thirds of bettors were on the Bears. They were wrong. The Bears made it into overtime, but they couldn’t pull it off in the end. Finding reasons to have backed the Bucs is easier than it will be in some cases. Brian Griese was getting the start, and he kew the Bears defense well from practicing against it. There was no way of predicting that he would throw the second most passes in NFL history, but it did seem reasonable to think that he would be fine. The Bears offense had been fine, but not great. Tampa Bay showed in week two that they could contain and frustrate a quarterback who has some talent but isn’t necessarily ready for prime time.

Carolina (+3.5) at Minnesota - Again two-thirds of bettors went the wrong way by backing Carolina. Again you could make a compelling case that they made the wrong decision (results aside). Minnesota needed a win badly, and has the talent and character to perform when their backs are against the wall. Gus Frerotte isn’t the best player in the league, but he has shown the ability in the past to step in in his first game and manage the game calmly. The Panthers had two nice wins coming in, but they hadn’t been dominant in either, their chemistry was going to be changed by the addition of Steve Smith this week, and they hadn’t faced a front seven this good yet. The Panthers would have been happy before the season if someone said that they would be 2-1, bu the Vikings wouldn’t have been at all pleased with 0-3, especially the way it had happened.

1. I think that I’m not yet convinced that Chase Daniel is the clear Heisman leader that people say he is. Sure, the stats are compelling - he’s top five in the country in completion percentage, passing yards, yards per attempt, yards per game, and touchdowns. He’s only been sacked once, and he’s thrown just one pick. On top of all that, he completed 20 in a row against Buffalo. Here’s the thing, though - he’s only played one BCS team - Illinois - and his stats in that game were significantly worse than the rest - his completion percentage was 25 points worse, his yards per attempt were much worse, and both the pick and the sack came in that game. It’s not exactly like the Illini are known for their stout defense, either. Don’t get me wrong, I like him and his team. I just want to hold judgment until he gets through his tough stretch of next four games - Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, Colorado. That’s a much better test of where he is at than what we have seen so far.

2. As a Michigan fan, few things have been a bigger kick in the gut than watching Terrelle Pryor do his best Joe Montana imitation in Buckeye colors. For a guy making his first start, and a guy who is supposed to be a run-first QB, he looked as little like a raw, run-first QB as a guy can possibly look. He looked really, really good, all things considered. Of course, he’d look much, much better in maize and blue.

3. Teams like Vanderbilt are what makes college football simultaneously endlessly compelling and insanely frustrating. They enter the rankings at number 21 this week after starting out at 4-0. They’ve beaten two decent SEC teams already, and they are 4-0 ATS. Chris Nickson has been a decent two-dimensional QB who has avoided real mistakes. So what’s frustrating about that? The last time this team was ranked was briefly in 1984. More incredibly, the last time the team had a winning record was back in 1982 - well before an of their players was born. They are putting together a ver solid season, yet there wasn’t a lot of indication that it was coming, and there is no real way of knowing how long it will last. This team has gone from underdogs against Miami of Ohio to a ranked team. That’s not how the script was supposed to play out.

4. The Oregon quarterback situation is like something out of Disney. One of those ridiculous, totally unbelievable Disney flicks with Angels and that crap. They put in their fifth string QB on Saturday. Yes, fifth. Freshman Darron Thomas was going to redshirt, but they needed him after a stunning string of calamities. Nate Costa had a knee injury that ended his season. Justin Roper has had his bell rung too many times. Jeremiah Masoli is hearing bells, too, after a concussion. Chris Harper, a freshman, was next. He didn’t get hurt, he just wasn’t very good. That left it to Thomas, and that should have gone poorly. Very poorly. Instead, Thomas threw for 210 yards and three touchdowns. In one quarter. We can only assume at this rate that the guy in the Duck suit is going to be forced into action by game nine, and he’ll toss seven touchdowns or something.

5. The key to Atlanta’s success is obvious - play truly awful teams. They looked almost as good against Kansas City this week as they did against Detroit in the opening week. It was only when they played a fairly decent Tampa Bay team that things went awry. They have Oakland on the horizon, so that’s their chance to shine again. The problem, though, is that they have to get through Carolina, Green Bay, Chicago and Philadelphia before they hit the Raiders. I’m not even remotely fooled into believing that there is any legitimacy to the Falcons’ 2-1 record.

6. So much for writing off Ronnie Brown. A couple of weeks ago we were hearing rumblings that the Dolphins were sick of his act and that he could be on his way out of town. Not any more. If you missed it, Brown ran for four touchdowns on just 17 carries against the Patriots, and capped it off by throwing for a 19 yard TD, too. It was just one aspect of a stunningly dominant and wildly unpredictable runaway win by the Dolphins over the Pats - the first regular season loss for New England in 21 months. The craziest part of the very crazy game was that the Pats were able to exploit the same gimmick - a direct snap to Brown - six times, and the Pats weren’t able to adjust to it. Now the AFC East is a mess. New England is out of first place, and the Bills are in. The only problem is that the Bills are only there thanks to a last second win over lowly Oakland that was  much harder than it should have been. Their last second heroics are fun to watch, but sooner or later it will get the best of them. Or maybe not. Look at their schedule - 7-1 is a real possibility heading into their first game against New England. Like I said, the AFC East is a mess.

7. Who is that taking snaps for the Colts, and what has he done with Peyton Manning? The alarm bells should be sounding in that fancy new stadium of theirs.

8. Dallas is the best team in the league, and I don’t think that it is even close. I hate Marion Barber’s two fumbles, but that can be fixed. What I liked most about their win over Green Bay was that they beat a pretty decent team when Tony Romo was only okay.

9. Matt Schaub is not the answer in Houston. Not even close. He has only gone backwards since he took over the reins there, and the team won’t be any more than uninspiring with him at the helm without a major, major change. I can’t come up with a single good reason not to give Sage Rosenfels his shot. On the plus side, Steve Slaton had a heck of a game, and gave us yet more proof of how impressively deep this freshman running back class is.

10. Marvin Lewis is still the worst coach in the pros. It’s not even close, and taking the Giants to overtime does nothing to change that. Charlie Weis maintained his grip on worst college coach, too, though Bill Stewart is staking his claim.

If you guessed that today we would be looking at the 0-2 teams then give yourself a pat on the back. There are ten winless squads, and those range from the absolutely inevitable to the absolutely shocking. We’ll go alphabetically agan:

Cincinnati - Let me say it yet again - Marvin Lewis is the worst coach in professional football, and he has wasted a stunning amount of offensive talent. He seems to have lost the respect of his team, they can’t score, they don’t play defense, and this season is lost. I hope they play so badly this year that Lewis never gets another job - no other team’s fans deserve to go through what he has put Cincinnati through. I don’t even like the Bengals, and I have never been to Cincinnati, but I’m still offended by this guy.

Cleveland - I though that the Browns’ fans were being a bit premature with their Super Bowl chants in the preseason, but I am surprised by how bad this team has been. The defense is non-existent, Braylon Edwards has been terrible, and Derek Anderson has come back to earth. Of course, it doesn’t help that they opened with Pittsburgh and Dallas - the toughest one-two punch of any team in the league. Things will get better for this team and the start will just be a bad memory, but the playoffs are a longshot.

Detroit - Matt Millen is the Marvin Lewis of general managers. I don’t understand how this team is as bad as they are, and I don’t know why I keep getting sucked into thinking they are better. They are going to win a few games this year, but not enough to justify giving Millen even an ounce of respect.

Jacksonville - I boldy predicted that this team would not only win their division but also the AFC. Moron. Their offensive line has been as bad as any a contender has fielded in a long, long time. That has meant that the running game has been stifled, and that David Garrard has had to run for his life regularly - something he doesn’t do a good job of at all. Injuries will heal and this team will improve, but I don’t think they will reach their goal of finishing ahead of the Colts.

Kansas City - Tyler Thigpen is their third starting QB of the year. This is only their third game. The team has consciously chosen to start Thigpen. What else do you need to know. After getting blown out by the Raiders last week, this team has a look at 0-16. I know how hard that is, so I am not getting my hopes up. Still, this team is really, really, really not good.

Miami - Some people seemed to expect more than this, but I can’t understand why. They are making good progress, and they have certainly looked better than they did at times last year. They still have all sorts of issues, though, and they are a long way from complete. They will be some sort of respectable this year, but they are a couple of years away from being good, and that’s assuming Chad Henne figures out how to play. He looked good in late action last week.

Minnesota - I had high hopes for the Vikings coming into the season. That was before I knew just hw little progress Tarvaris Jackson had made, that their left tackle situation would be such a mess to start, or that their defense wouldn’t gel immediately. I like the move to Gus Frerotte, and I expect the losing ways to come to an end soon. Like this week.

San Diego - Stop me if you have heard this before - amid high expectations the Chargers have struggled out of the gate. That’s been the same story in five of the last six seasons, and I am getting sick of it. They can blame the officials all they want, but it really comes down to the fact that something in their locker room is broken. Probably the mirror, because that’s where the problem is. If the past is any indicator, they’ll soon get their act together and coact along until the playoffs - their playground for underachievement.

Seattle - Before the season I thought it seemed lie a bad idea to operate with a lame duck coach. Two games into the season I am even more convinced of that. They have had laughably bad luck with receivers, but that doesn’t explain their lackadaisical play elsewhere on the field, or their seeming disinterest. This team will do fine, but for the first time in what seems like decades I am far from convinced that they will win their division.

St. Louis - My computer’s thesaurus doesn’t have enough synonyms for bad to describe this team. I won’t even try. Needless to say, there are not a lot of reasons for hope.

Based on the title of this article a detective could probably figure out what we are going to look at tomorrow. Before then, though, let’s assess which of the 2-0 teams seem like they are for real, and which ones are lucky to be where they are. There are ten teams that have yet to lose. We’ll take a quick look at each of them, and we’ll do it alphabetically to avoid any claims of bias:

Arizona - I’m happy to see the Cards off to a strong start, and am especially pleased to see Kurt Warner playing as well as he is. That being said, their record is a bit hollow. You don’t get a lot of style points for beating San Francisco and St. Louis. The problem, then, is that we don’t know how good these guys are, and that’s troubling now that they are heading into a much tougher schedule up to their bye week. In their first two games in October they host Buffalo and Dallas. That will be a telling stretch. I think that the Cards have what it takes to win the NFC West, but that doesn’t take much.

Buffalo - I spent some time in Buffalo before he season, and the city was incredibly optimistic. Their recipe for success so far isn’t much of a surprise - the defense has been very good, and Trent Edwards is playing well within himself. A comeback win in Jacksonville is impressive even if the Jags don’t have an o-line. With Oakland, St. Louis and Arizona up next this team could easily head into their bye at 5-0. That would make things very interesting. I am confidently going to say that this is a playoff team - it doesn’t take too much imagination to find 10 or 11 wins on their schedule.

Carolina - You have to give a team big credit when they win twice without their best player. They haven’t run over easy opponents either, and they needed to come back in their opener against San Diego. I liked this team coming nto the season, and  like them even more now. Jake Delhomme is a perfect game manager, and I mean that as a compliment. The defense is stout, and the team is playing well together. I don’t think they will stay on top of their conference, but I do think the playoffs are a real possibility.

Dallas - So, so much has been said about this team, and much of it is true. Their ofense is as good as any in the league. Their defense isn’t yet as good as its parts, but it will improve. They will win the NFC East and have a first round bye. Nothing this team does until January matters at all. I have no problem at all right now calling this the best team in the league, and I was saying that before Tom Brady was injured, too.

Denver - I have to admit that I am a bit surprised by this one. I didn’t love their defense coming into the season, and I still don’t. I underestimated just how far Jay Cutler had progressed, and how much of a impact Eddie Royal would have right away. They won last time in part because of a terrible call, but I think they deserve real credit for being in position to benefit from that call - the Chargers should have had them firmly under control. I still don’t think that his is an elite team, but I’m not convinced that they will be nable to hold off San Diego given a two game lead, either. I don’t love them, but I am learning to respect them. Their last three - at Carolina, Buffalo, at San Diego - are brutal, and could be a real test of their legitimacy if they are still in the picture by then.

Green Bay - I have been wrong about this team all along, so I don’t know why you would listen to me now. I like a lot of the pieces, but I have a hard time believing that Aaron Rodgers can make a smooth transition to starter, or that he can stay healthy all season. So far I have been proven completely wrong, but I still hold out some hope that I haven’t completely missed the boat. Regardless, I think they will pretty much win their division by default given the problems with the Vikings.

New England - Even with Matt Cassel at the helm they still have a huge skill edge across the board on virtually every team in the league. The rumors of their demise post-injury have been ridiculously exaggerated. I still think their playoff spot is a total lock, and I give them a solid edge over Buffalo to win the division. Matt Cassel has shown he can manage the game very well, and this is an offense designed to make a QB look good.

New York Giants - I absolutely do not believe in this team. They didn’t look great against an awful Washington team in their opener, and then they picked on a useless St. Louis team. Incredibly, their schedule doesn’t get much harder for another month. But then it gets tough. I have looked silly in the recent past counting this team out, but I will fearlessly do it again. I would be more surprised if they made the playoffs than if they didn’t.

Pittsburgh - How is Big Ben’s shoulder? That’s the only big question I have here. I don’t like any of their other options nearly as much as Roethlisberger at this point. If he is okay then I like this team. A lot. They will win their division by default, and are in contention for a bye. I think - we’ll have a much better sense after they play Philly on Sunday.

Tennessee - I’ve been stymied by this team this year. They have had distractions galore, yet they have overcome them all. In retrospect, their wins weren’t as hard to see as I made them - Jacksonville is flawed, and Cincinnati is terrible. Their schedule is pretty average and manageable if they play well, so it all comes down to how well Kerry Collins can play. I’m not sure how confident that makes me feel.

Stories about people are usually the most interesting parts of sports, and today we have all sorts of interesting people stories to keep us interested:

I’m not surprised to hear that the Vikings have decided to put Tarvaris Jackson on the bench. He hasn’t been helping his team at all so far, and the team has to do something now before it is too late to salvage the season. That seems ridiculous to say after just two games, but that’s how the league is. What I am surprised about, though, is that the team has name Gus Frerotte the starter for the rest of the seasonn. If the team was willing to get rid of Jackson that easily then why did they wait until now, and why didn’t they find a better option than Gus Frerotte? This move doesn’t give me a ton of faith in a coaching staff that I thought was ready for big things before the season started.

Gilbert Arenas has gone through a third knee surgery and is out until the end of November. I wish that that was more surprising. I like Agent Zero a lot, and I don’t think the Wizards made a bad move by signing him to a big new contract this year. I just don’t like to hear about this. He rushed back from his first surgery. That necessitated the second, and now the third is because the second hasn’t responded as well to rehab as hoped - some debris in the knee is causiing problems. I hpe that he can get back to top form, but I will be holding off betting on him when he returs until we get a good assessment of where he is at. I know that his problems are much different than micro-fracture surgery, but I can’t help but think of how long it took Amare Stoudamire to return to top form after he came back from a knee issue. Some of that was physical, but a bigger part of it was mental. Arenas is as explosive and creative as Stoudamire, so a mental impediment from not entirely trusting the knee could be a problem for a while.

Bob Sanders is going to miss at least six weeks with knee and ankle problems. Needless to say, this is not good news for the Colts. It goes bigger than a hole on the defense, though. The Colts have been lethargic and disinterested this season (except for in the last few minutes of the comeback against the Vikings). Sanders is a spark plug player, and the type of guy who can fire up a team that needs firing up. I have been less optimistic than most about the Colts anyway, but this makes my view even dimmer.

The Tigers announced yesterday that Kenny Rogers wouldn’t pitch any more this year. I laughed when I read a couple of media sources saying that the team had declined to disclose any injury information about Rogers. I can tell you exactly what the injury information is - Rogers is a dick and the Tigers, in the midst of a horrible year, are sick of his crap. He’s not under contract, and my guess is that the name plate is already off his locker.

Time to look forward to what the football weekend has to offer again:

Worst NFL game of the week - I was tempted to go with Kansas City ay Atlanta, because the Chiefs are awful and the Falcons aren’t ready for prime time yet. The Falcons should be able to run and score some points, though, and that is always fun to watch. That rules out this game. Many would argue that it is Detroit at San Francisco, but my well documented soft spot for the Niners eliminates that possibility. Besides, San Fracisco isn’t as bad as people think. My choice is St. Louis at Seattle. The Rams are terrible and seemingly self-destructing, and even with two new additions today the Seahawks won’t have a full, healthy, operating receiver corps. They have looked listless so far, and I am not hopeful for a dramatic turnaround.

Best NFL game of the week - Before the season I would have guessed that it would have been Jacksonville at Indy, but neither team has been particularly inspiring so far. The clear pick now is Dallas at Green Bay. This is Aaron Rodger’s biggest test yet, and our chance to see if he is actually human.

Game with teams with most to prove - This is where that Jacksonville - Indy game comes in. Indy needs to prove that they have an offense, and they can replace the productivity of a suddenly aged Marvin Harrison. Jacksonville has been terrible offensively, and needs to run or pass or avoid getting sacked or quit throwing interceptions or do something that at least somewhat reflects the actions of a decent team.

Ridiculously over-hyped - Pittsburgh at Philadeplphia. I know this is just my pre-existing biases talking, but the Battle of Pennsylvania bores me. And especialy now that Big Ben has shoulder issues.

Oddest line - Unlike last week, none really jump out. One interesting thing, though - last week there were six road favorites, this week just one. Too bad, too - they were 5-1 ATS last week.

Best college game of the week - Unlike last week, we don’t really have a marquee matchup here. The top game in terms of ranking is LSU at Auburn, but after last week I refuse to get excited about SEC football. Call me when you learn to score. Before the season I was excited about Georgia at Arizona State, but the Sun Devils’ loss to UNLV last weekend popped that balloon. In terms of pure layers of intrigue, the West Virginia - Colorado game on Thursday is as good as any. Troy at Ohio State could be interesting, too - Troy is solid, and it will be fascinating to see how Ohio State bounces back from their debacle. I’m going to take the coward’s way out, though, and not call one clear winner in this category.

Filling me with dread - Thankfully, I am dread-free this weekend because Michigan will be sitting at home - hopefully with balls taped to their rosin covered hands so they can learn not to fumble on every touch.

Four interesting games between unranked teams - Florida Atlantic (+7) at Minnesota. Last Year Florida Atlantic won teh Sun Belt and seemed to be on the rise, but they have struggled to find their way so far. Minnesota has been a pleasant surprise. These teams met last year and the Owls sprung the upset, so the Gophers will be out for revenge. Arizona (-2.5) at UCLA. Two disgraced conference rivals who have to bounce back from serious embarrassment. Virginia Tech (+2) at North Carolina. The Hokies have fallen so far from their preseason perch that they are dogs to the Tar Heels. Ouch. This is Butch Davis’ chance to see how close his team is to respectability. Notre Dame (+8.5) at Michigan State. My favorite team from Michigan couldn’t get it done, but the Spartans sure will. The Irish won’t know what hit them  - it’s not as easy t win when the other team doesn’t do all the work for you. Javon Ringer will go for about 7,000 yards in this one.

Biggest line - Buffalo (+34) at Missouri. I wish ths wasn’t so. Anyone who has been reading along here knows that I am high on Buffalo. They are fun to watch and very well coached. They are feisty and could be tough. On the other hand, Missouri has just looked like a machine all year, and likely will again here. My inclination is to think that this line is too big, but I fully acknowledge that that could just be wishful thinking on my part.

Excellent defensive display in the NFC East tonight. The line movement was interesting in that one, especially on the total. Three quarters of bettors were on the over, yet the total opened at 48 and dropped down to 46.5 or lower. A move like that generally indicates either that either a good deal of smart money is on the under, or that the books favor the under, so they want to do everything they can to encourage bets on the over. Either way, the books would have had a bad night on that front - the teams didn’t just go over, they obliterated the total.

Strange vibes coming out the Yankees camp. Jorge Posada came out in an interview this week and suggested that Joba Chamberlain would be better coming out of the bullpen than as a starter. He said that the tendinitis that kept Chamberlain out of action for a month or so was a sign that he can’t hold up to the strains of being a full time starter. I think that Posada s exactly right, but that’s not the point. What is surprising is that Posada would come out and say it when the organization has seemed committed to the starting path. That’s not the kind of thing that would have been tolerated back in the day, but now it was said in an interview on the Yankees’ own network. That’s all a round-about way of saying that I don’t have a lot of faith in this current admnistration in the Bronx.

Very interesting move by the Brewers today in firing their manager with two weeks left. It was the right move, I guess - they were in freefall and needed a shake-up. It just seems very risky and could backfire. On the other hand, I’m not in the clubhouse so I don’t know how Yost’s relationship with the team was going, and so my opinion isn’t worth much here. Either the brass in Milwaukee will look brilliant or this will look monumentally stupid. The best hope, it seems, would be for the Brewers to hope that some of the karma is ther stadium rubs off on them - The Cbus went for seven hitless innings today after a no-no yesterday while they were borrowing Milwaukee’s stadium because Houston’s was in the path of Hurricane Ike.

The Pac-10 stinks. Sure, they have a ridiculously scary at the top that should cruise to an undefeated record, but beyond that there is pretty much nothing. All ten teams played this weekend, but only three won, and only two covered. The conference played the Mountain West four times this weekend, and neither won nor covered once. Two of their teams dropped out of the top 25, and there isn’t a team in there that appears to be a serious threat for anything. Oregon is the one team that is maybe promising, or at least they were until they lost yet another quarterback to injury. My beloved Big Ten gets a lot of abuse, but we look good compared to the Pac-10. And yes, I know about the Ohio State debacle, but I only barely consider them a part of the conference. The part of the conference that isn’t in Ohio went 7-2 on the weekend.

By the way, the lowly Big East was 2-2, and the lousy ACC was 6-3, though they played two conference games so they were 4-1 out of conference. The SEC was very strong - they went 8-2, and the only two losses were in conference games. The Big 12 was dominant, too - they went 6-2, and 6-1 ATS. If you’re following along, you’ll notice that the Pac-10was the only BCS conference that didn’t win the majority of their games. They don’t have the excuse of tough opponents to fall back on, either.

Maryland confounds me. I like them and they are terrible. I write them off and they pull a huge upset. They’ve earned a spot on my never-play list, and they’ll have to work hard to get off of it.

Oklahoma is spectacular.  I am fairly certain that USC is the best team in the country, but I have no doubt that Oklahoma deserves their new number two ranking. Sam Bradford is a beast, and the defense s terrifying. I can’t believe that Bradford wasn’t the designated starter at the beginning of last season. It’s way, way too early to do so, of course, but I am already looking forward to the prospect of an Oklahoma-Missouri Big 12 Championship game. Bradford and Chase Daniel could cause the scoreboard to explode.

As a Michigan fan, I have decided that the easiest thing to do is to just pretend that that game never happened. It was proof of just two things. First, you can’t win a game when you turn the ball over every time you touch it. Second, Notre Dame isn’t ready for prime time. The Wolverines made them look good, but they still have more problems than anything reasonably approximating a good team can have. This win might get the public more excited about Notre Dame football, but they really shouldn’t be.

Wow, do I ever hate SEC football. I respect the conference, and I think they are probably the best conference out there, but when their teams get together they redefine boredom. Georgia and South Carolina took 60 minute to accomplish little, but their 14-7 game looked like an offensive explosion compared to the 3-2 mess that was the Auburn - Mississippi State game.

Let me say yet again what I say every week and will keep saying until he is replaced - Marvin Lewis is a truly awful football coach who is wasting a stunning amount of offensive talent. The Bengals were as bad as a team can be this weekend. Again.

I’d been calling Oakland the worst team in the league. Now I have Kansas City and St. Louis in a tie. The Rams are so bad I can’t even find words for it. Kansas City has already used three QBs in two games, and none have been worth a damn.

I’m getting tired of apologizing to Aaron Rodgers, but I have to do it again. Again, I have no idea where that performance came from, but I have to give him credit. He was spectacular, Favre was bland with the Jets, and people are about to forget that there was ever a controversy. I’m going to learn from this experience and keep my opinion that he will crash down to earth sooner or later to myself.

I guess we don’t have to fear too much for the Pats. Matt Cassel was fine, and their talent advantage pretty much everywhere else on the field was enough was enough. The thing to watch, though, is how Randy Moss behaves. He only had two catches today, and that won’t be anywhere near enough to please him.

I was really high on Jacksonville and Minnesota in the AFC. They are a combined 0-4. Oops.

Buffalo is a good team. Clearly the second best n the AFC East, they have clear playoff potential.

It turns out that Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are only superhuman when they aren’t playing against a defense.

JaMarcus  Russell - 6/17 for 55 yards. Unbelievably far away from acceptable. The worst part wasn’t how he played. It was thatit’s hard to see signs that he might improve any time soon. It doesn’t help that Oakland is such a mess. I hope Lane Kiffin does get fired this week as reported - not because he deserves it, but because the whole situation is obviously broken - shattered - and maybe a new coach can turn things around a bit. Of course, Al Davis isn’t going anywhere, so the prospects are bleak.

If I was the Vikings’ GM I would be calling Tampa Bay now and every three minutes until the Bucs agree to trade Jeff Garcia to Minnesota. It shouldn’t be hard to make happen - Garcia is out of favor. He’s not going to perform miracles, but he is stable and more than competent, and he is so much better than Tarvaris Jackson it isn’t funny. Jackson might develop eventually, but Minnesota is too talented to waste this year waiting for him to come around.

Greg Schiano should have taken one of the jobs he was offered before he quit looking like a genius at Rutgers. That loss to North Carolina last night was very, very ugly. Butch Davis is going to turn NC around, but not that quickly or dramatically.

Until Beanie Wells steps on the field or the game ends I am not going to believe a single thing that is said about his status. He’s fine, then out, then uncertain, then fine then out again, then maybe fine. Ridiculous. Frustrating for everyone but those who are Buckeyes’ backers. This will only make the underdog line more attractive.

This whole Vince Young situation is a mess, and a good example of how the media doesn’t make things better. He says he is fine and the whole thing has been blown out of proportion, but I can’t imagine that Jeff Fisher would have involved a psychiatrist or the police if things were hunky-dory. I don’t see how the team can not be distracted, but then it’s not like Young is a big loss right now given his play. The only thing I know for sure is that the Titans will likely be a pass until the dust settles a bit.

I’m really looking forward to when the USC - Ohio State game is over. The hype and coverage is out of control.

I feel like the Kansas - USF game isn’t going to be close. I just can’t convince myself which team is going to come out ahead.

I’m glad we don’t have hurricanes where I live.

The more news I hear out of San Diego, the more concerned I get about the Chargers. Is there a healthy player on that roster?

What’s wrong with the NL Central? The Cubs can’t win, the Brewers can’t take advantage of it, and now the Astros are mounting a charge. Of the three I’m most concerned about the Cubs - they got this far partly due to pitching, and the pitching is getting harder and harder to trust.

I was just about ready to count out the Rays. They were going to make the playoffs, but I was seriously doubting that they would do anything once they got there. But then the last two game happened. Twice they got into tight spots against the Red Sox, and twice they found a way to win. It wasn’t easy, either. The first time they had to beat Jonathan Papelbon. That rarely happens. The second time around they hung around in a 1-1 game until the 14th before erupting for three runs. I’m still not viewing the Rays as my favorites, but they keep showing guts that I wasn’t sure they had, and that will be very useful in the playoffs.

I’m generally not one to overestimate the impact of injuries or panic when a player gets knocked out, but as a guy who was looking forward to betting the Saints this year I am worried about the Marques Colston injury. He’s been by far the favorite target of Drew Brees, and losing a target like that can be hard for a guy to get over. New Orleans has lots of receivers, but none that obviously can step up and fill the gap left by Colston. That being said, Colston emerged from basically nowhere, so who knows what could happen. It’s about time that Robert Meachem started to earn his millions. The injury won’t turn me off of the team, but it will probably make me pass on them next week until I see what happens. On the other hand, I’m not sure it matters who is at receiver when they play the Redskins given how Washington looked in their first game.

The Pirates secured their 16th consecutive losing season today. How is that possible? How has the team not folded? How has someone not bombed the team’s headquarters? That’s the most ridiculous, incomprehensible stat I have ever seen.

Manny Ramirez may be the best deadline acquisition ever. He’s hitting the lights out, and the team can’t lose with him. They are running away from the Diamondbacks, and the playoffs are theirs for the taking. Man Ram will bring a very interesting element to the playoffs as well - something that the NL is going to need since the Mets are dreary, the Cubs are slumping badly, and the Brewers are only fearsome when Sabathia is pitching.

The betting public is composed of suckers. That, of course, is why sportsbooks exist. I’m sure that every time a reasonably unexpected player has a big performance the books just laugh and figure out how they are going to spend all of the extra money that they are going to make. That’s because the public assumes that any performance, no matter how gaudy or unexpected, is completely sustainable. If a players has a huge game this week, public logic dictates that they wll do it again the next week, and they bet accordingly. They usually won’t, obviously, and that will often cost the overly eager public some cash. Here are five players (six, actually) who could prove costly:

Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos - This second round receiver out of Virginia Tech was a true beast on Monday Night. He had nine catches for 146 yards and a touchdown, and he made the secondary look consistently ridiculous. That was only against the Raiders, though. DeAngelo Hall played as bad as a corner can play, and the Raiders were confused and generally useless. Royal isn’t going to find it that easy from now on, and neither will the Denver offense.

Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons - I’ll group these two together for obvious reasons. Both guys had much better debuts than I expected, but they are going to come back to earth. First, they were only playing Detroit last time out. I could have looked good against the Lions given how they looked. I expect both guys to have decent years, and perhaps more than that in Turner’s case, but it isn’t always going to be as smooth and easy as it looked on Sunday. THe public doesn’t agree with me - more than 70 percent of bets so far have been on the Falcons as they make their first road start in Tampa.

Dante Rosario, Carolina Panthers - Rosario is the tight end who made the huge, game winning catch at the end of the game against San Diego. He’s a second year player out of Oregon. He didn’t play much last year, but he had a huge first game this year. The media, predictably, is being ridiculous. I have now twice read people comparing him to Antonio Gates, and telling readers how he will revolutionize the Carolina offense. He almost certainly won’t, but you won’t be able to tell that to the public if they don’t want to listen.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Rodgers had a very good debut for the Pack, and suddenly many in the media are writing as if Favre is a distant memory and the team has made a serious upgrade. I have high hopes for Rodgers in the long term, but he isgoing to struggle along the way.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - This second round runner out of Tulane is the real deal. He was the MVP of the Senior Bowl. He had a heck of a pro debut, too - 23 carries for 123 yards and a TD. In the eyes of many, the Bears’ running woes have been solved. Maybe, but I’m not convinced yet. The Bears played a surprisingly listless Colts team, and they clearly benefitted from that. Things won’t always be so easy for Mr. Forte.

Shawne Merriman is done for the season. He’s chosen to get the surgery on his knee because he is ineffective without it. Only a genius could have seen this shocking development coming. Ridiculous. I want the last two weeks of my life back - all I heard was talk about him, and all for nothing. Listening to all that made me long for Favre talk.

We’re starting something new. Every Tuesday during the football season we are going to do a look ahead at what the coming weekend has to offer - the highs and lows, the betting intrigue, the clear stay-aways, the fun stories. Without further ado…

Worst game of the week (and perhaps ever) - There is absolutely no contest here. Kansas City is a four point favorite at home against the Raiders. I could spend every minute between now and kickoff trying to come up with a single nice thing to say about each team and I couldn’t do it. Terrible, awful, thoroughly irredeemable game. The sad part is that this used to be such a classic rivalry. Pathetic.

Best NFL game of the week - The obvious choice would be the Monday night Philly-Dallas game, but choosing that wouldn’t be very original, and I’m not sure it will live up to the hype. Pittsburgh and Cleveland has promise, but I am justifiably scared of Cleveland after the Dallas game. That leaves me with my choice - Buffalo at Jacksonville. Buffalo played one of the three best games of the first week (along with Dallas and Pittsburgh). Jacksonville was embarrassed by Tennessee and will be looking to bounce back strong. This one could be a classic. Jacksonville is favored by six.

Games with teams with most to prove - San Diego at Denver. The Chargers were should be disgusted by how they started and ended their opener against Carolina. They have a clear chance to be the class of the AFC now, but they have to be much, much better to do so. Denver looked surprisingly complete on Monday night, but that probably doesn’t mean much since it only came against Oakland. They will be looking to prove that they are legitimate, and nothing would do that better than a win here. San Diego is only favored by one.

Ridiculously over-hyped - The Jets - Pats game is still five days away and already I am sick of hearing about it. I will obviously watch the game, but likely with the sound off - the announcers will be tripping over themselves finding new ways to describe the Brady situation.

Oddest line - At first glance it seems odd that Seattle is favored by nine over the Niners. San Francisco has all sorts of troubles, but so does Seattle. The Hawks have more receiver problems than seems possible, and now the story has come out that Hasselbeck has a bulging disk. On top of that they are coming off a truly awful performance on both sides of the ball. It’s hard to see a reason I would want to trust them to win by 10.

Mildly interesting stat - The Patriots are currently underdogs against the Jets. They were never underdogs last year. It only happened three times the year before, and they covered all three times.

Truly strange - I have started as many football games in my life as Matt Cassel has since he graduated high school. I have never played football.

Best college game of the week - A no-brainer, obviously. I truly believe that the winner of the USC - Ohio State game will be in the BCS championship game. The public clearly thinks that that will be USC - they are favored by 10.5. If it weren’t for that one then my vote would be for Wisconsin - Fresno State. The Bulldogs are for real, and this is their chance to prove it against a very good team in their home stadium. Kansas - South Florida is another interesting one between two teams that have to prove that last year was no fluke. I’m also ver interested to see if BYU looks better this week, and how UCLA comes back from a huge upset win.

Filling me with dread - I watched Notre Dame play San Diego State. It was a painfully inept, thoroughly disgusting display of shoddy football. Awful. But now the Irish play my beloved Wolverines. If Michigan can’t beat that hopeless team it will be very hard to take. I’d probably even cry. Sadly, the odds reflect the reality of the situation - the game is currently a pick ‘em.

Four interesting games between unranked teams - Florida Atlantic (+17) at Michigan State. The Spartans have been surprisingly solid, and Florida ATlantic’s QB Rusty Smith is an underappreciated talent. Georgia Tech (+7) at Virginia Tech. The Hokies have a lot to prove after losing to East Carolina, and they have to do it against a team riding high under a new coach and a new system. Southern Miss (+2) at Arkansas State. Southern Miss scored 51 in their first game. Arkansas State racked up 83 last week. This one could be a shootout. Rice (+7) at Vanderbilt. A battle of the upstarts.

Biggest line - LSU is favored by 41 over North Texas. They last met in 2005, and the Tigers won by 53. The trick here will be to get the game in. For the second straight week a hurricane is impacting LSU fotball. They had to cancel last week, and they may have to move the game this week. The next biggest is for Texas Tech, which is favored by 36.5 over SMU. SMU isn’t good (obviously), but June Jones is in his first year on the job there, and you can guarantee he’ll have his team at their best (for what that’s worth). If they can disrupt Graham Harrell like Nevada dd last week then this one could be mildly interesting. I’m not suggesting a possible upset, or even a likely cover by the dogs, but at least this one is vastly more interesting than the North Texas one.

I was going to call this post Monday’s Insights, but this first weekend of the NFL has made it perfectly clear to me that insights are an endangered species. The Vikings were the latest problem. I have been high on this team for more than a year now. Tonight they rewarded my faith by looking very, very average. Tarvaris Jackson made it increasingly difficult to imagine he has a bright future with a lackluster performance that was short of compelling excuses. Adrian Peterson was Adrian Peterson, with 103 yards and a touchdown. I have one huge question for the Minny staff after watching the game - why in the world did Peterson only get 19 touches? He was effective. Not much else was. What were you waiting for? You only lost by five, so another 10 carries could have made the difference.

I have to give Aaron Rodgers credit. 18 of 22, 178 yards, a touchdown. 35 yards and a TD on the ground. Nothing wrong with that. Much, much better than I expected of him. Another brilliant insight on my part.

It’s only halftime of the second game, but I have seen enough to emphatically declare Oakland a total nightmare. They look dazed and confused, they are getting torched by Eddie Royal, a rookie receiver, DeAngelo Hall is embarrassing himself, there appears to be no gameplan, and no ability to achieve it even if there was one. Lane Kiffin is in a terrible situation, but he still should be embarrassed by the team he put on the field.

I find the Seahawks receiver situation hilarious, and I know that that might make me a bad person. Nate Burleson tripped over his feet in Buffalo and tore his ACL. Bye-bye season. That’s too bad - he’s a good receiver and he had a TD already. Burleson joins pretty much every other receiver the team has on the injured list. Bobby Engram won’t be back from a broken shoulder until next month. Deion Branch is out indefinitely with knee problems of his own. Ben Obomanu is on the IR. The team now has three active receivers on the roster, and I guarantee that casual football fans will never have heard of any of them. THe team is looking for a veteran, shifting players off the practice squad, and apparently seriously considering moving backup QB Seneca Wallace over to wideout. Very, very strange situation.

I caught Roger Federer’s final at the U.S. Open this afternoon. Ridiculously, indescribably dominant. He made Andy Murray look like a little girl. That should shut the critics up a bit. It was getting frustrating hearing how he was done - he ended the year with a grand slam, two more grand slam finals, and a semi in the fourth. Not bad for a guy with mono. The good part of the criticism was that you could bet on him in the final at -190. That’s a ridiculous price for the guy, and one I jumped at.