Archive for the ‘NFL Handicapping’ Category

Wednesday’s Thoughts

Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

I am impressed to the point of being shocked by the start that Brandon Jennings has gotten off to. In three games for a reasonably crappy Bucks team the point guard has averaged 22 points, .3 assists, and four boards. I have only seen him play part of one game, but he looked the furthest thing from a rookie point guard. The game I saw them play was against Chicago. I am a huge Derrick Rose guy – couldn’t be a bigger believer. That being said, Jennings flat out outplayed him in the game. I was very skeptical of Jennings ‘ decision to play in Europe instead of college, and the reports coming out of Europe weren’t universally great, but early indications are that he could be a serious draft steal. The downside to his early strong play in my mind is that it further legitimizes his decision to skip college and turn pro in Europe. If it continues to turn out so well for him then other players will surely follow, and that will only hurt college basketball. I’d obviously rather not have that happen.

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12 Questions That Will Be Answered Before Today Is Over

Sunday, November 1st, 2009

1. Will Denver ever lose? If they are going to do it then this is a good place for it to happen – in Baltimore. The Ravens have been impressive in a lot of ways despite their 3-3 record. Really a few breaks either way and these teams could easily have the opposite records. I have a feeling that whichever team wins this one will really have proven something in the process.

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State of the Union – Quarterbacks

Tuesday, October 27th, 2009

Yesterday I touched on how uneven and uninspiring so many teams have been in the NFL has been this year. It’s really striking how large the gap is between the good teams and the not-so-good ones – bigger than usual, I think. As I was thinking about that earlier I was particularly struck by the sad state of quarterbacking in the league. There are always some QB problems, but I’m not sure that there is also this many teams in such a hopeless situation. Here’s a look at the worst offenders:

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A Mix of Monday Thoughts

Monday, October 26th, 2009

So, when did the NFL become less competitive than non-conference college football? Six of the 12 games played yesterday were decided by at least four touchdowns. That’s preposterous. It makes for ridiculously uncompetitive action, and therefore mostly uninteresting football. The good news, I guess, is that at least we aren’t taking bets on the games – books are getting absolutely killed by favorites covering monster spreads like this. The favorites were 8-3-1 ATS this week, and the three biggest spreads, usually the public money magnets that the books feast on, all covered. Ouch. The disparity in the league this year is amazing. For the first time ever we have three undefeated teams through seven weeks of the season. On the flip side, we have three teams that could quite conceivably not win a game, and for a couple more it seems impossible to believe that they have already won one (or more). I thought salary caps were supposed to bring competitive balance?

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Mid-Game Sunday Thoughts

Sunday, October 25th, 2009

It’s early in the first set of Sunday games , and a lot of thoughts are running through my mind already:

1. What is the point of this farce in London? The field isn’t ideal, the crowd sounds like they are at a funeral, the broadcast doesn’t look or sound quite right, and the Bucs are pretty much the worst ambassadors for the league possible. Josh Johnson has thrown two interceptions already in the first quarter, and the game is already over. Of course, it was all but over before the kickoff. It can’t be long now until we see Josh Freeman start to play for the Bucs – it’s not like they have anything to play for, and Freeman can’t be much worse than the alternative.

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Notes From All Over

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Potentially interesting story brewing in Gainesville. Florida is favored by 22.5 as they travel to Mississippi State this week. The problem, though, is that they are beat up on defense. Linebacker Brandon Spikes and defensive tackles Jaye Howard and Lawrence Marsh are three starters fighting injuries, and all are questionable for next week. Spikes is battling a groin injury that he suffered last week, and when he was out his absence was definitely noted. Florida also has some depth injuries on the d-line already, so that could make for an interesting situation – Mississippi State has the 11th ranked run offense in the country, so they could potentially be in position to exploit Florida’s issues. I’m not at all convinced that that is enough to put the Bulldogs over the top, but it at least makes the game more interesting than it would be if the Gators were operating at full intensity and effectiveness on both sides of the ball.

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Random Thursday Notes

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

It is not a good time to be a referee. Or at least a bad referee. We have seen bad calls happen at at least the same rate as usual, but league’s are doing something about it. First, the SEC announced this week that  they have suspended the crew that made the bone-headed mystery calls against Arkansas in the Florida game. Now, MLB has changed their policy for selecting the World Series umpire crew. Typically they include at least one ump making his World Series debut so that they can add to the total of experienced World Series umps in the league. The large number of very poor calls in the playoffs so far, though, has forced them to get nervous about the situation and attempt to ensure the best refereeing they can get. To do that they are reportedly going to establish a crew made up mostly of crew chiefs, and entirely of veteran, experienced umpires. That won’t mean that there won’t be problems, but it is nice to see the league take things seriously and try to do something about it – at least until they can get a workable instant replay system in place.

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Random Thursday Notes

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

It is not a good time to be a referee. Or at least a bad referee. We have seen bad calls happen at at least the same rate as usual, but league’s are doing something about it. First, the SEC announced this week that  they have suspended the crew that made the bone-headed mystery calls against Arkansas in the Florida game. Now, MLB has changed their policy for selecting the World Series umpire crew. Typically they include at least one ump making his World Series debut so that they can add to the total of experienced World Series umps in the league. The large number of very poor calls in the playoffs so far, though, has forced them to get nervous about the situation and attempt to ensure the best refereeing they can get. To do that they are reportedly going to establish a crew made up mostly of crew chiefs, and entirely of veteran, experienced umpires. That won’t mean that there won’t be problems, but it is nice to see the league take things seriously and try to do something about it – at least until they can get a workable instant replay system in place.

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Mid-Week NFL Notes

Wednesday, October 21st, 2009

Every week the Browns’ story just keeps getting crazier and crazier. This is better than fiction. Two more twists in this twisted tale. First, linebacker D’Qwell Jackson has been placed on the IR. He’s one of the few highlights on this team defensively. He leads the team in tacklesths year, and topped the whole league in that category last year. The Browns’ defense was already nothing to write home about, and this certainly won’t help. The other news is that Cleveland has been overrun with a flu bug, and it has affected six starters so far, including nose tackle Shaun Rogers, one of the other few defensive highlights. The players – 12 in total – missed practice on Wednesday, and could miss more – especially if it turns out to be H1N1. This puts a serious kink in the team’s preparations for Sunday’s game against the Giants. Given that they were already in deep in that game this is bad news for them – and entertaining for us.

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Monday Night Football Reflections

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

1. Norv Turner should be fired now. With cause – willful and incomprehensible waste of talent.

2. The first thing the new coach should do is work on covering kick returns. It’s not even like Eddie Royal was an elite kick returner before today.

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