Maddux Sports Blog

Wow, is the weather ever ugly at the British Open. If I showed up at a course and the sky looked like that I would turn around and go home. A links-style course does nothing to make the day look any nicer, either.

Phil Mickelson finished the first round at nine over. Way to grab an opportunity with the absence of Tiger and run with it. Seeing Phil choke is an all too common occurrence. On the plus side, I guess, he is a stroke ahead of Ernie Els and Vijay Singh.

As I write this, Greg Norman is one stroke off the pace through eight holes. Imagine the story if he could keep that pace up. He’s also tied with Anthony Kim. That guy is on fire.

Adam Scott is the first player to be under par at the turn. It’s way too early, obviously, but I like his chances on Sunday. He was and is a bargain at 25/1.

James Posey left the Celtics to sign for four years and $25 million with the Hornets. This is a bit odd. The Celtics were very vocal about how key he was to their success, and he was willing to stay, but he wanted four years and they would only offer him three. The money was essentially the same - Boston was offering the full mid-level exemption - so the fact that they wouldn’t go for one year seems like a bad one. Either that or they were overstating Posey’s impact.

Now the Packers are accusing the Vikings of tampering with Favre. This whole story is never, ever going to go away. I don’t have kids, but I know that my grandkids will still be hearing about this attention whore and his  latest flirtation with a comeback.

Riccardo Ricco won two stages if the Tour de France this year. And now he got busted for doping - EPO. What a shock.

Magglio Ordonez has been activated and will rejoin the Tigers. That should be a huge boost for a team that I still like to win the AL Central.

Yao Ming returned to action in an exhibition game China played against Serbia. It was his first time in a game in six months. I bet that the Rockets wish that there was some way that they could keep their giant out of Olympic action.

The more I think about it, the more I think that there might be some value in taking the Raiders over 6.5 regular season wins given that it is at +147 at Pinnacle. I may be spending too much time in the sun without a hat.

Casino Drive, the intriguing Japanese star who missed the Belmont with a bruised foot, is in quarantine in Japan preparing for a return to the U.S. It appears that he will run a prep race in California, perhaps the Goodwood, en route to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This horse is such a strange situation - he hasn’t raced since the Peter Pan in May. He’s just so darned talented, though, that you can’t entirely discounted. I have Breeders’ Cup tickets for Santa Anita this year, so I really hope he makes it.

I’m going to avoid talking about the All-Star game before it happens because, well, it bores the hell out of me. I love baseball as much as the next guy, but I don’t think it lends itself particularly well to an exhibition format - especially one that none of the players really care about. If pitchers were all supposed to only pitch an inning a game then they’d all be called closers, and each team would have 18 of them. If I had to I would bet on the American League, but I would rather bet on cricket.

While I am avoiding that topic I need another, and I want to revisit something I discussed yesterday - my nemesis, Peyton Manning. There are a few more details coming out of Indianapolis about his situation, and it makes for some interesting pondering.

Given how private Manning and the Colts usually are, it struck me as odd that a story appeared in the Indianapolis Star suggesting that Manning might miss the first game of the season. That struck me as the kind of thing that doesn’t appear accidentally. Even though the team has repeatedly said Manning will be ready, the article struck me as potentially a way to at least advance the possibility that he won’t be. It also points out a problem that Indy has had ever since Manning arrived in town - he pretty much has to stay healthy because they have no other options. Let’s play a little game. Which one of these guys isn’t an Indy backup - Jim Sorgi, Ryan Dawson, Josh Betts? It’s Dawson, but you probably had to think about it, didn’t you? Manning has been ridiculously healthy, but that may not last in this league. Brett Favre is obviously a complete fluke, not a guy to model a franchise after.

Sorgi has obviously never had a start, and he has never played meaningful time in a game that matters when it was on the line. Betts replaced Ben Roethlisberger at Miami of Ohio, but he was undrafted when he graduated. He’s never appeared in a regular season game, and he spent his first season on the practice roster. Neither guy is anywhere close to ready to step in and fill in if Manning isn’t ready.

I really don’t understand why the Colts would put themselves in a situation like this. It makes no sense for their team, and it is very frustrating for bettors - at least teams with an adequate backup might present some value if the starter is hurt. The public will immediately bet any value out of a Manning-less Colts game.

Just one final thought. How excited to do think that the Colts organization would be about opening their fancy new stadium against the Bears on national TV with Sorgi under center. No one will be cheering for him to get healthy more than owner Jim Irsay.

We learned  couple of things from the Home Run Derby tonight - it can incredibly entertaining, and the overall format is flawed. Watching Josh Hamilton’s tour de force was one of the coolest things I have done in a long while. The problem, though, is that no one cared about the result after that all happened. Justin Morneau is a fellow Canadian, and I am proud of him for coming through, but he didn’t deserve to win, and no one cares that he does. Instead of making it a three round contest like it is which just tires out batters and pitchers and rarely builds to a dramatic finish, it is time they tweak it a bit. They should invite a few more guys to participate, give each guy a few more outs, and just have one round. It didn’t matter what happened after Hamilton did his thing, so the format should be such that he didn’t have to do anything. The way it is now, Morneau hit fewer home runs in three rounds than Hamilton did in one, and he still won.

Interesting news out of Indianapolis today - Peyton Manning had knee surgery to remove an inflamed bursa sac. He’s been trying to recover since February, but surgery finally became the best option. He is expected back at his best in four to six weeks, and his consecutive game streak shouldn’t be threatened. It is amazing how some guys operate under the microscope while other mega-stars can totally elude scrutiny. Obviously being in Indianapolis has something to do with it - we know nothing about what Manning does when he isn’t on the field, and we knew nothing about Marvin Harrison until his alleged shooting incident in the spring (which has conveniently seemed to have gone away).

Again, I must qualify this next story by saying that summer league basketball is virtually meaningless. That being said, a couple of interesting performances came out in the first game for Minnesota and Dallas. The T-Wolves cruised to an easy win on the strength of an impressive showing by Kevin Love. The start was rocky, but he ended up with 18 points and 13 rebounds. I have reasonably high hopes that he will exceed expectations as a pro, so this was a good start. The other one to note was Dallas’ Shan Foster. The former Vanderbilt star had 17 points. Foster didn’t get the respect I think he deserved in the draft. He’s a bit one-dimensional, but he just knows how to score. He joins DeAndre Jordan and Chris Douglas-Roberts as guys who could wind up being major steals in the second round.

Strange story from the Islanders’ camp. They fired Ted Nolan today after two years as coach, citing differing philosophies between coach and management. Nolan was out of coaching for about a decade after winning coach of the year in Buffalo. He reportedly feuded with his goalie there, and many say he got his GM fired as well. In New York he got more out of the team than they deserved with the talent they had, but he reportedly feuded with his goaltender, and he obviously couldn’t get along with his GM. It will be very interesting to see if he will get another job, or if the emerging pattern will put him squarely back on the black list. Things must have been pretty bleak if they warranted his firing this long after the season ended, and this close to rookie camps and, as hard as it is to believe, the start of training camp. The new staff will be starting from behind.

Jeff Borris, the agent for Barry Bonds, says his client has not received a single offer from a team looking for his services, and that the prospects look bleak for him to play this year. I hate when bad things happen to good people.

I was passing some time tonight by browsing around the odds at Pinnacle looking for anything interesting (it was a slow night, obviously). As I did that a few lines of interest popped out that are worth a comment:

Men’s Olympic soccer - Anything can happen in a short tournament, but it would be a major upset of the winner of this tournament wasn’t either Argentina or Brazil. They are just that much better than anyone else. Interestingly, they are priced in such a way that you could bet both if you wanted and still make money if you were right. Argentina is +188 and Brazil is at +238 to win them all. That’s not bad for heavy favorites at this point.

Men’s Olympic basketball - There is a prop asking whether the U.S. will win gold. Yes is -297 and no is +277. I absolutely think that the Americans should be favored, and they will have to have a good excuse not to win, but I still think that there is probably value in betting against them here. With the quality that is in this tournament and their performance in recent international play this is just too small a price.

Indianapolis Colts season win total - 11 - This one is interesting to me. I cant stand the Colts, but they are a public team. It’s surprising, then, that they are favored to go under their total. They are at +133 to go over 11, and -149 to go under. I’m pleasantly surprised to see that the public isn’t buying into them this year. It would be nice to not have to see them as a major contender for a while.

Carolina Panthers season win total - 7.5 - This is another surprising one. They are at +147 to go under this total. They are just one quarterbackk injury away from another unimpressive season, and recent history would suggest that that isn’t nearly the longshot that this price would suggest it is.

Men’s Olympic badminton - Chunlai Bao (-119) vs. Jin Chen (+109) - Just kidding - I may be a bit of a degenerate, but nearly enough of one to dig this deep into the barrel to find some action. All I know about badminton is that shuttlecock used to be a really funny word when I was in grade school.

This is shaping up to be a strange day full of somewhat surprising news. Only one item is truly shocking, but all are of interest.

First, the shocking one. Baron Davis is a Clipper. Huh? After saying repeatedly that he wasn’t going to opt out of the final year of his contract in Golden State that’s exactly what he did. The only theory that I can say makes sense is that his agent told him that the L.A. team that plays in the Staples Center wanted him, and he signed before he did more digging. Why else would he go to the Clippers at this point in his career. He is an elite player, but he’s not a youngster anymore, and he doesn’t really have the luxury of time to build a contender. And there is a lot of building to do in L.A. - especially sine Elton Brand and Corey Maggette opted out this week. Brand may be back, but that’s not certain. In Golden Sate he had a team that was returning its core and had won 48 games last year. They were in trouble because they were in the very tough West, but so are the Clippers. This is a step back. A giant one. Davis is in the movie business, and he is from So Cal, but I honestly don’t understand why the lure of home would be this strong. It says pretty strongly to me that winning isn’t as important to Davis as I thought it was. He traded proximity to the film business for 25 fewer wins last year, and he has joined one of the worst run teams in existence.

Now the one that is totally ridiculous but not at all surprising. Brett Favre has reportedly told the Packers that he has the itch to play this year. Shocking. Not surprisingly, the Packers only comment was to say that they don’t have a comment. The fact that Favre didn’t see this coming means that he has the self awareness of a mosquito. Favre has to realize that the Pack moved on because he told them to move on. I suspect he will spend the season in Mississippi, but it would be kinda fun to see him in a different uniform. How about going to Minnesota for one year to lead his new team past his former team? Or maybe to Kansas City - they need a QB, but since they have no one to protect him and no one to throw to that seems unlikely. I guess the thing is that I don’t really care, and I really hope that this isn’t the beginning of another annual installment of the Favre soap opera.

Finally, kudos to the Pittsburgh Penguins. They sounded like they were going to make a serious mistake, but they avoided doing so. They were reportedly shopping Evgeni Malkin so that they could sign Marian Hossa, but ultimately they let Hossa go and extended Malkin for five more years. This is absolutely the right decision. Malkin is younger, he has more upside, and he showed by how he stepped up when Sidney Crosby was injured that he is a real player. Hossa has been on two teams that couldn’t win, and the fact that Pittsburgh made the final with him has as much to do with the rest of the team as him. Malkin had a lousy Stanley Cup final, but he will only learn from that, and he is going to get better. You can’t say the same about Hossa - what you see is what you get. Malkin has had trouble with the coaching staff reportedly, but that can be dealt with as it needs to be. They weren’t going to get good value by dealing Malkin, so this was the right move, and a positive move for the future. On the other side, Hossa took a surprising risk. He signed for one year with the Red Wings, the team that beat him in the Stanley Cup finals, and he signed for $7.4 million. It makes sense in the sense that the Wings probably have another deep run in them, but they couldn’t afford to sign him long term because of the other players they will have to pay starting next year, so this was the only way he could sign wit the team. If he has a good year then it will work out for him because he will be able to sign a rich long term deal with another team next year. It’s a huge gamble, though. More money and a longer term were on the table from several teams, so if he has a bad year this year or he gets hurt then it will cost him a fortune. In balance, though, I like the move - it shows that Hossa is hungry to win, and that makes me respect him more as a player than I previously have.

Finally, here’s something that you don’t see every day - Mats Sundin was offered a two year contract to be the highest paid player in the NHL, and it appears that  he has passed on it. Vancouver was the team that offered him the preposterous contract, and Montreal and Toronto were among the teams that were also interested. He says that he wants time to think on it, and that that may take several weeks. That seems to sound like he may retire or play in Europe. That’s not surprising given that he is 37, but it is surprising in that the delay almost certainly means that the big deals won’t be on the table any more if and when he does want to return. The move makes sense on some levels, but it’s not every day that you see a player turn down an obscene amount of money.

We are still several months away from the start of the NFL season, and there is a whole lot of quality sporting action between now and then. For a huge number of sports bettors, though, the NFL is the only thing that really matters. If the players aren’t currently dancing with other stars then they are in the weight room and on the practice field getting ready for next season. There’s no reason that you shouldn’t be doing the same. Don’t worry - you don’t have to break a sweat to get ready. Here are five things you can do to get ready to be at your best and most profitable when the season starts for real, though:

Catch up on player movement - It’s easy to keep track of the high profile players and their new addresses. Football is the ultimate team sport, though, so it’s more than just the stars that impact how a team will perform. Now is a great time to study the depth chart of teams and how they have changed since last we saw them. The rosters aren’t cast in stone yet, obviously, but studying now can give you a good sense of which teams have truly improved and which still have work to do. The media will spend lots of time between now and then talking about the same thing, but they will focus on the stars and rarely delve into what really matters. You’ll have an edge on the public if you work hard to form your own opinion.

Do your reading - There are hundreds of websites devoted to handicapping, dozens of forums filled with good information, and a small library of worthwhile football books as well. The more you read and learn, the better you will be as a handicapper. You won’t agree with everything you read, and you might not even change what you do, but you’ll learn to avoid mistakes or do things differently. Instead of rading a John Grisham on the beach, read something that will make you some money down the line.

Improve your record-keeping - Most bettors don’t keep very good records. They probably know if they win or lose, but they can’t necessarily tell you how they do it. Spending the time setting up a better, more comprehensive record-keeping system is perhaps the biggest single thing you can do to help you make more money. If you closely track your bets you can find the leaks - the bets that you consistently make that aren’t profitable. You probably have bad habits that you aren’t even aware of - maybe you play the over more than you should, or you think that the Bears are better than they are. You can only fix the problems when you first identify them. Spend some time making friends with Excel this summer.

Plunge into the stats - You probably spend a lot of time looking at stats during the season, but there are also a lot of stats that you probably ignore. You should spend the time now getting familiar with some stats that you don’t use in your handicapping now. Look at individual boxscores, find a stat that sticks out as being particularly good or bad, and see how the game turned out. Then look at other games to see if the same stat had the same impact. If you do start to see a trend then you can look deeper. If not then move on to the next one. You might just find another way to find and edge in a game or two over the season.

Get to know the rookies - New players are on their way, and many of them will be making a serious impact. The media has been talking about them since long before the draft. They certainly don’t plunge very deep into reality when they do it, though. If you want to really form valuable opinions about the new players you need to ignore all that you have heard and form your own ideas. Read articles from the local papers in the towns the player’s schools were located in. Look for scouting reports from real draft analysis sites that do their own research. Go to Youtube and find highlights packages to see the players first hand. Maybe you’ll spot something that you really like about a player, or something you really don’t. There is no such thing as too much knowledge.

Sportsbook.com has become the first book to release NFL season totals for next year. I’m not generally a fan of these bets, and especially not in the NFL when the possible range is so small because of the number of games they play. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t anything to learn from the bets, though. By looking at the numbers and the juice required we can get a good sense of how oddsmakers are feeling about some teams. If any are a surprise then we have lots of time to figure out if they seem right or wrong. Here are the strongest opinions based on the first numbers posted:

Buffalo over 7.5 (-180) - The Bills are the heaviest favorite on the board. Books are obviously pretty confident that they will improve on their seven wins of last season. It’s not hard to justify that opinion - their quarterback has more much needed experience, their injury woes will hopefully be a thing of the past, the offense reloaded in the draft, and they seem to be moving in the right direction. Their division schedule will be tougher than last year, though, because the Pats are still the Pats and the Jets and Dolphins have improved. The rest of the schedule could be tough, too, including San Diego, Cleveland, and Jacksonville. I like the Bills, but certainly not enough to make this bet.

Oakland over 6 (-170) - The second biggest price on the board isn’t very attractive to me, either. To pay off here the Raiders need to find three more wins. Their running game should be improved (though it was pretty much the lone bright spot last year), but they will be relying on a brand new quarterback who isn’t surrounded with overwhelming tools. It could happen, but I don’t love the chances, and I think that this price is just an attempt to sucker in the suckers that call themselves Raiders fans.

Indianapolis under 11 (-165) - Books are down on the Colts. They would have to drop by three wins here. The arguments can be made - the receiving corps has questions (including whether Marvin Harrison will end up in an orange jumpsuit), and Tony Dungy doesn’t seem to be committed to his job for the long term. I don’t know whether I believe in this one or not, but I would be more than a little thrilled if it were true.

Dallas over 10.5 (-160) - I wonder if America’s team has ever been anything other than a heavy favorite to go over. The public can’t seem to be objective about this team, and the books take advantage of it. The number doesn’t seem that unreasonable, but the price sure does.

Atlanta over 4.5 (-160) - The Falcons need to find one more win than last year to pay off here. They have a new quarterback who has to make a gigantic leap up from the ACC, a coach who has never been at the helm of a team before, a GM who has to rebuild the team almost from scratch in his first year as a GM, and players have defected from several key positions. I have no doubts that this team is on the right path and will figure things out eventually, but I don’t think that their improvement this year is nearly the lock that this price would suggest.

People will look at the draft from a thousand different ways over the next couple of days. I will certainly resist the temptation to deliver meaningless draft grades, but there are a few things worth mentioning from a betting perspective about this draft:

• First, let me whine for a bit. My football fan rules are very simple - I am fiercely and blindly loyal to Michigan, and I hate anything to do with anyone named Manning. You can imagine my joy, then, that Mario Manningham went to the Giants and Mike Hart is a Colt. I’m not sure what I did to deserve that.
• I hope people keep saying lots of nice things about Kansas City. They had a great draft, and they improved significantly, but they are still going to be pretty lousy this year. The more nice things that are written about them the more the public will  like them and the harder it will be for them to cover spreads. Most significantly, this draft tells us that Brodie Croyle is still seen as the best option. Ouch. I love overly enthusiastic support of NFL teams.
• It’s pretty obvious what the Patriots are blaming for their late-season comparative weakness - the defense. They picked three outside linebackers and two corners. It makes sense - the average age of their linebacking core is about 142. It’s also pretty bad news for the other teams out there - the Pats are very good at continuing to fill their gaps and stay competitive.
• I’m probably going to live to regret this, but at this point the Bills are going to be a team I expect to rise this year. They had a very strong draft - the first corner off the board, the big, impressive receiver they need with a great value pick in the second round, and a ton of bodies to fill needs. On top of it all they are like a new team because they get back the ridiculous number of players that were hurt last year. They won’t win their division, but they will be in the wild card hunt.
• I guess the Jets believe in Kellen Clemens. The only quarterback they picked was Erik Ainge, and he’s a third stringer if he’s lucky. I didn’t see anything at the end of last year to make me that that was a good idea.
• Proof that the draft can be cruel - despite what seems like a ton of picks, lots of good players go undrafted. Prime example - Adarius Bowman was a beast of a receiver at Oklahoma State with 20 touchdowns in 24 games, and he was athletic enough to play basketball  for the Cowboys as well, but he went unpicked. He had a problem with the cops and pot a couple of times, but bigger things haven’t scared teams off of other players.

My draft thoughts as they occur:

1:02 p.m. - To the shock of no one (I hope), Jake Long was the first pick. New York fans stayed classy by booing him. Nice.

1:12 p.m. - Chris Long goes to St. Louis second. The draft definitely isn’t as interesting to watch when the picks are already known. I’m fairly confident that we know that Matt Ryan is going next, too, but we’ll see what happens.

1:17 p.m. - Matt Ryan is kissing his mother, so the Michael Vick era is about to end. A good pick, and it should make things very interesting now. Teams could be active to get Glenn Dorsey. The guy who benefits most from this is Chad Henne - I see him getting picked inside the top 20 now because there are a lot of teams who need a QB.

1:23 p.m. - Darren McFadden is tempting, but I am not completely sold on him, or on Oakland’s need to get a running back this high. If I was the Raiders I think I would have to go with Dorsey.

1:27 p.m. - Goes to show what I know. The best part of McFadden going to Oakland is that it pissed off the Jets fans. I don’t really have any problem with the Jets. It’s just their fans that are so unlikeable.

1:31 p.m. - That means that JaMarcus Russell will be handing off to Mcfadden. It’s handy when players I don’t really believe in are concentrated in the same place.

1:34 p.m. - Dorsey goes to Kansas City. Good pick and good value in that spot. He could have easily gone in any of the first five spots. The only guy left in the green room is Vernon Gholston. There’s a decent chance that he could be there for a while. It depends how badly teams want Sedrick Ellis. If I had to guess I would say that the Jets would trade down to New Orleans or Cincinnati, and that the Patriots are trying desperately to move down as far as they can. On the other hand, the Jets may not be able to resist the perceived value of Gholston.

1:43 p.m. - Gholston it is. I expect him to be a mild disappointment in his career. When he’s good he’s really good, but that’s not all the time.

1:45 p.m. - I’ll be surprised and verging on boredom if the Pats don’t make a trade here.

1:46 p.m. - It’s more fun watching Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn go through hell than it is seeing the green room empty out early. Is that wrong?

1:51 p.m. - The trade did happen. New Orleans is on the clock and should take Ellis.

1:53 p.m. - Ellis it is. Now Baltimore should trade down to pick a QB.

1:54 p.m. - Sure enough - Jacksonville trades up. Baltimore is in 26 now. I could see them try to move up a few spots to make sure they get Henne or Flacco - their guy may be gone by then. Jacksonville needs D-line help, so Derrick Harvey would be my guess. I like Harvey more than Gholston.

2:01 p.m. - It is Harvey. Third defensive end gone in eight picks. So far the draft has been pretty predictable, but it should get more interesting now as players get a bit more interchangeable.

2:06 p.m. - Wow, that Jacksonville move was expensive - two thirds and a fourth. I still expect Baltimore to use one or two of those picks to move back up a few spots.

2:07 p.m. - Keith Rivers goes to Cincinnati. Good day for USC so far. Given that they couldn’t get Ellis I like the pick. This pick will work out well as long as the Bengals keep building their defense. He’s a piece, not a complete answer.

2:10 p.m. - Cornerback if the biggest need for New England, and that would likely mean McKelvin. They could have a good corner further down, though, so I would suspect a trade or a pick of Mayo or Albert.

2:13 p.m. - Jerod Mayo is the pick. I love this pick - Mayo is a gem at this spot. Buffalo is next. I will be shocked if it isn’t Devin Thomas. I don’t love that choice, but I think it is the choice. It could be a corner - McKelvin - too. I wish that the Bills would trade down a bit instead.

2:17 p.m. - It was McKelvin. I feel relieved. I like the Bills, and I think that this pick pays off better now and in the future than Thomas. They can get a receiver later on that is not a major step down from Thomas.

2:19 p.m. - Branden Albert can’t fall past Denver, can he?

2:22 p.m. - Yep. Ryan Clady is the pick instead. I’m glad, actually - it’s good to see that Albert isn’t getting rewarded just for being a Combine freak.

2:27 p.m. - Carolina is next, and Johnathan Stewart is getting the buzz. I saw this guy play in person and he was impressive. He’s excellent value here.

2:28 p.m. - He was the pick. I like it. Bears next. Probably an offensive tackle, but we could make this really interesting if they took a quarterback. Won’t happen, but I can dare to dream.

2:37 p.m. - Chris Williams from Vandy is the OT of choice. he and Jeff Otah were fairly interchangeable, so this pick addresses a need. I just hope that the long term plan isn’t for him to protect Rex Grossman and block for Cedric Benson.

2:39 p.m. - Lions next. My first thoughts for them are all gone. I would love to see them take Rashard Mendenhall. They need a running game, and I am really high on this guy. If they don’t take him then Arizona probably will. If Mendenhall ends up behind a decent line I could see him having the top running year of the nice rookie crop.

2:43 p.m. - Finally something out of the blue. The Chiefs traded up into this spot to take Branden Albert (presumably). I like Albert here better than higher up because he is athletic and versatile. He’s very solid value at this pick. Great draft for the Chiefs so far. Great week really - they got maximum value for Jared Allen, and they are so far using their assets well. Mendenhall should go to Arizona now.

2:52 p.m. - If Arizona takes a corner, which is a real possibility, then Matt Millen may have just made the first really good move of his career - trading down for more picks and still getting his guy.

2:53 p.m. - Sure enough - Arizona takes Dominique Rodgers- Cromartie and his one kidney. No complaints about that pick. They can get a second running back later on to complement James.

2:57 p.m. - Wow. The Lions surprised me with that pick - Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. If that was who they wanted they could have traded further down to get better value. I don’t like the pick - not the best available player, nor does it fill the biggest need for the team. That saves me from having to say something nice about Matt Millen at least.

3:00 p.m. - Houston is next. My guess is Jeff Otah, the tackle from Pittsburgh. They need line help. I’d really like to see them move down a bit - say with Baltimore - because they aren’t getting a slam dunk here, and they need lots of help.

3:01 p.m. - Sure enough. Baltimore moves up to get Henne or Flacco. Great move either way. I would love it to be Henne, but my guess is Flacco. Henne will contribute sooner, but Baltimore will probably fall in love with Flacco’s arm.

3:04 p.m. - It was Flacco. Very good day for Baltimore. They got their guy (not my guy, but their’s), and they gained some picks doing it.

3:07 p.m. - Strange how this game works - Flacco is being worshipped as the next coming now, but he left Pitt after two years because he couldn’t beat out Tyler Palko.

3:09 p.m. - Iggles are up. Wide receiver? I like James Hardy and Mario Manningham, but they both have baggage, so Devin Thomas would probably be the choice.

3:10 p.m. - Scratch that - the Panthers traded up for the pick. I would love to see them take Chad Henne.

3:11 p.m. - Nope. They took Jeff Otah to shore up the line and make room for Johnathan Stewart. Not sure I love them trading back into the round for that, but it’s not a total disaster by any means. A decent deal as long as they didn’t have to sell their souls to do it.

3:13 p.m. - Now the Bucs are up. Jeff Garcia could use a target, so I would guess receiver. See my earlier comments regarding the Eagles - I would like it to be Hardy or Manningham, but think it will be Thomas.

3:15 p.m. - I can’t believe we are at number 20 in just over two hours. This isn’t nearly painful enough to be the first round of the draft.

3:16 p.m. - Okay, I hate the Jeff Otah pick. The Panthers gave up next year’s first round pick plus a second and fourth this year. Too much for a team that is more than a player away from being competitive - especially when that player is talented but not polished.

3:20 p.m. - Wow. Another surprise. Aqib Talib of Kansas goes to Tampa Bay. I thought his attitude issues would drop him behind Mike Jenkins. My complaint about this guy is that he takes too many risks that leave him out of position. This pick really tells us what teams think of this year’s receiver crop - not much.

3:22 p.m. - Washington is next. My guess would be Calais Campbell, but the last hour or so has shown how sharp my guesses are lately.

3:27 p.m. - Another trade. After a slow start this is getting very interesting. My guess is that someone is moving up to take a running back.

3:28 p.m. - Atlanta is the team that traded back up. Probably not a runner, then - they have Michael Turner. Could be anything - they have holes almost everywhere.

3:30 p.m. - They took Sam Baker, the OT from USC. I like the guy, but I am surprised that they had to move this high to get him. Still, nice to see them spending to protect Ryan and Turner. No complaints. Dallas is up next. Now they have the fortunate situation of picking whatever running back they want now that Mendenhall has fallen. They might even pick someone else with this pick and take a running back with their next one if they don’t have a strong preference between Mendenhall and Felix Jones. If they did that I would guess Mike Jenkins - Pacman Jones can’t be trusted. If I had to make one pick it would be Felix Jones.

3:38 p.m. - It’s good to get one right again. It was Jones.

3:40 p.m. - Someone is going to get a steal with Mendenhall.

3:42 p.m. - Pittsburgh next. They would have loved an OT but there isn’t one worth taking. A receiver? James Hardy would look good in these colors.

3:43 p.m. - They took Mendenhall. Had to take the best player on the board. He and Willie Parker will be a great backfield. I like the pick, obviously.

3:48 p.m. - Tennessee up next. I’ll make two guesses - they’ll either go receiver with Thomas or defensive end with Campbell. I’d list them in that order.

3:50 p.m. - Wow. The Titans stretch a bit to take Chris Johnson, the ridiculous fast guy running back from the Combine (4.24). A stretch for a team that has plenty of needs. Nice kick return potential, though. Again, this tells us how little people think of the receivers.

3:52 p.m. - Seattle is up. I have had Kentwan Balmer penciled in for quite a while for them and he is available so I won’t change my opinion.

3:59 p.m. - Seattle figures they can drop and still get their guy. Dallas moves up to take someone. Either a receiver or a corner. I guess Jenkins, but wouldn’t be surprised if it was Thomas or Desean Jackson.

4:00 p.m. - Jenkins it is. Nice pick.

4:01 p.m. - Houston is up now in Jacksonville’s spot which they got from Baltimore. Either they stretch a bit for the O-line or they take the best available. DeSean Jackson and Andre Johnson would be a pretty fun duo. I think it is O-line, and I’m pretty sure I won’t like it.

4:05 p.m. - Sure enough - Duane Brown from Virginia Tech is the pick. He’s a guy they probably could have had without worry 20 picks later. It’s not too hard to figure out why Houston has struggled for so long. Lousy pick in my eyes.

4:06 p.m. - San Diego up next. I have had Brandon Flowers here for a few weeks. My opinion hasn’t changed, but surprises are everywhere.

4:10 p.m. - Right position, wrong guy. Antoine Cason of Arizona. No complaints - I like the guy, too. Good pick to fill one of the few needs on the team.

4:12 p.m. - Seattle up next. Still going to stick with Kentwan Balmer.

4:16 p.m. - Lawrence Jackson of USC. Wow. The world loves the Trojans - that’s the fourth one. A bit of a reach in my mind. They could have traded down again if that was their pick.

4:17 p.m. - Still no receivers gone. San Francisco is on the board. I think that they will take Balmer because he is available. It will be someone in the defensive front seven. I would guess.

4:19 p.m. - There it is - Balmer. Very nice pick for them. This defense is getting better and better.

4:20 p.m. - Green Bay up next. Have to think they would love to trade down a bit. A team wanting a QB could be a partner. If they keep it my guess is Kenny Philips of Miami.

4:24 p.m. - Sure enough, Green Bay trades down with the Jets. The trade is to pick Dustin Keller. Nice tight end and nice pick.

4:27 p.m. - Last pick of the round - the Giants. They could do several things - a linebacker like Dan Connor, a safety like Kenny Philips, or whichever receiver they want. I have no clear choice, but I’ll guess DeSean Jackson just because he is flashy and fun. Personally, I just wish that the Giants would fold.

4:35 p.m. - It was Philips. Can’t complain about a guy from the U in the first round.

That’s it for the first round. It was a very interesting one - predictable up top and crazy down below. A lot of teams filled some big holes. It’s obviously way to early to figure out who did well, but kudos to the Chiefs and Baltimore.

I’m going to leave you now. It’s been fun. I’ll be looking to see where the rest of my Michigan boys go - there is some real value in them in my incredibly biased view.

The NFL Draft is just a couple of days away (50 hours and 42 minutes if anyone is counting), and like many of you I am in the violent final throes of draft fever. I’ve read (and written) so many mock drafts that I am almost blind, I’ve changed my mind on most players several times, and I have firmly embraced my biases (as a Michigan fan you can imagine how giddy I am right now - take that Suckeyes!). The only thing left for us degenerates to do is to figure out if we can make any money from this thing. Of course the sportsbooks are more than happy to help us out in that pursuit, offering us dozens of different props to throw our money at. Here are some of the most interesting:

First pick - I can’t find odds to bet that it will be Jake Long anywhere. Too bad - I’m feeling pretty good about that one.

Atlanta - There are reports out there that the Falcons aren’t going to pick Matt Ryan even if St. Louis picks Glenn Dorsey (incidentally, there are other reports saying that St. Louis is favoring Chris Long). I don’t see how that makes any sense at all, but if that is the case then there are some nice odds out there. Chris Long is 9/2 to be Atlanta’s pick, and Vernon Gholston is 10/1. The field is at 17/4. I still think tha tthe safest bet is Matt Ryan, but the price isn’t that attractive - 20/23.

Oakland - Darren McFadden is a decent fit here, but I am surprised by how heavily he is favored - 10/17.

Jets - Vernon Gholston is the favorite here at 1/1. I could see that unless McFadden is available (6/5). I also don’t want to rule out seeing the Jets trade down - if Ryan is still available then this will be a prime trade spot because New England would likely trade, too, and Baltimore wants him.

Baltimore - Their favorite is Ryan at 17/10. I don’t love that bet at that price - I don’t see how he is still available there. If he’s not my bet would be for them to trade down, but that’s not a choice.

Buffalo - I’m not positive I understand why they are doing it, but it seems pretty clear that Devin Thomas is their pick. That means that 11/10 is a decent price.

Rashard Mendenhall - You can bet on which team he will end up with. Detroit seems like the most likely choice, but it isn’t as likely as the odds suggest - 1/1. I’ll pass on this one.

Second QB drafted - I think that there is some value here. Brian Brohm is the favorite at 5/9, but I like Chad Henne’s chances a bit better, especially given he is at 9/5. The buzz is big around him, and I especially like the chances if Baltimore doesn’t get Matt Ryan. I don’t think they will, so I llike the Henne bet quite a bit.

Will New England trade their first pick? - I don’t see anyone that they are in love with, and they probably would rather have more picks than a high one. More importantly, New Orleans and Cincinnati could be interested in moving up to get Sedrick Ellis, and there will be a frenzy if Matt Ryan is still alive. The Pats are 13/10 to move down, and that’s worth a look.

Looking back on the first round of the NFL draft last year, there were really only a few players that were relevant from the start of the season. Adrian Peterson was a star from the first snap, contributing more than 100 yards in his debut. He revolutionized the Minnesota running game, and changed how you had to look at the team. Joe Thomas was incredibly reliable right from the start, and his play was a big contributing factor to the success of Derek Anderson and the Browns’ offense. Patrick Willis stepped right into the San Francisco defense and played like the Pro Bowler he became. The Niners were truly lousy, but Willis made them significantly better than they otherwise would have been. Marshawn Lynch caught Denver off guard in the first week of the season, and added more than a thousand yards on the year. Calvin Johnson had two of his four best games of the year right out of the gate, and immediately improved the Lions’ passing game. Others put together decent years and some nice stats, but those are basically the ones that handicappers needed to compensate for right from the start of the season.

That made me think - which of the likely first rounders this year will hit the ground running and significantly impact the outcome of their team’s game from the start? It depends on the team that drafts them, of course, but here are five that strike me as possibilities:

Jake Long, OT, Michigan - Long is a left tackle, but he will possibly be moved to the right side in the pros. Wherever he plays he has the ability to step in and contribute immediately much like Thomas did last year. With the proviso that he ends up on a team that has a quarterback who has the potential to improve immediately if he is protected, Long will be able to help give a passer more time, and should have a quick and lasting impact on the stat sheet.

Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State - Of all the receivers that have first round potential Thomas may not end up being the best pro, but he has a very good chance of being the one who starts off best. There are couple of reasons for this - he has a great mix of size and speed, and he showed a great deal of improvement between his first and second years out of junior college. Most importantly, he excels more than any other receiver at the draft at catching short passes and gaining yards after the catch. He is likely to go high to a team that needs a good first or second passing option, and Thomas will mesh right away as a trustworthy short to mid option.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois - Just looking at this list so far makes me think that those that say I have a Big Ten bias might have a point. Regardless, I really like Mendenhall. He won’t be the first back off the board, but he can step in and start immediately for whoever takes him. He is shifty and very tough to tackle, and I think he should have a very solid rookie year. More importantly, he will go mid to late in the round, so he will end up with a team that is decent and can capitalize on his talents from the start. This is a ridiculously deep draft for runners, but Mendenhall is my choice as the early contributor. Darren McFadden may end up having a better career (maybe), but not in the first year.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal - I wouldn’t want my team to draft Jackson. His size and durability don’t make me believe he has a long career ahead of him. Regardless, I expect big things from him early in his career. That’s because of his versatility. He can be ridiculously dangerous as a kick returner, and he can fill any number of receiving roles. I think that opposing teams will figure him out eventually, but until they do he could make a splash.

Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt - As always, teams are valuing the immediate and lasting impact a strong tackle can have on the offense. After Long is off the board, others like Williams, Branden Albert of Virginia, Jeff Otah of Pittsburgh, and Ryan Clady of Boise State should all come off the board in the first half of the round. Of that group I like Williams best - Albert is a project because he is likely to be moved from guard to tackle, and I like the smarts Williams plays with and the competition he has faced playing in the SEC. If he ends up in front of a quarterback that is worth protecting than that QB should be improved right off the bat.

Okay, here’s the skinny on the end of the NFL post season—the New England Patriots lost because the offensive line had more holes in them than a sieve.

(more…)

Finally, the big game is almost here. We are on the cusp of finally seeing if the New England Patriots, who seem to have become the New York Yankees of the NFL, can have a perfect season and post season or if the New York Giants will pull a Partiot-like Super Bowl upset.

(more…)

Okay, as of now, the Pats at favored by plus-12. That down one point. The cause may by the Brady foot cast that Brady was in a few days ago. Brady has a minor high ankle sprain and two weeks to recover from it. I could recover from something like that in row weeks, so I imagine an athlete like Brady who has the finest medical care in the world should be okay and 100%.

(more…)

Neither team covered in the AFC or NFC championship games. Here’s how it played out.

(more…)