Maddux Sports Blog

It’s another big weekend of college football action. Here are the storylines that are the most intriguing:

Tennessee (+6) at Mississippi – The large majority of the bets have been on the Vols, but the line is on an elevator up – from 3.5 where it opened to six now. That isn’t what you would expect, and that means that some smart money is hitting Mississippi fairly hard. It will be interesting to see if Mississippi can back up the faith.

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I’m not sure that anyone out there is still cutting Jay Cutler any slack, but anyone who still is needs to stop it immediately after last night. There are a lot of excuses for why he is struggling – the team has no running game of note, their offensive line is deeply troubled, and they can’t seem to consistently snap the ball. None of those can account for why Cutler is leading the league in interceptions, though, or why the Chicago offense no longer seems to exist. A couple of Cutler’s interceptions yesterday weren’t entirely his fault, but at least two – including the last one – definitely were. Cutler insists on trying to force his passes into places where he should know better than to try anymore, and he is getting locked n on a receiver and not looking past him – even when clearly better options exist elsewhere. We knew that there was going to be an adjustment period for Cutler in Chicago, but this is way beyond acceptable. This year is lost, and next year he very likely will have to get comfortable with a new coach and a new system. The guy already clearly doesn’t seem to adjust well to change, so it’s hard to be optimistic about next year, either. It’s obviously way too early to say that the Cutler trade was a mistake, or that it won’t work out, but you definitely could look at this as a warning against elevating a player to a level that he isn’t deserving of. The interceptions have reached a new level of ridiculousness this year, but Cutler has always forced his passes and turned it over way too much, so why did people assume that he would suddenly be a superstar when you put him on a team with a weaker offense line and significantly worse receivers?

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We don’t talk about swimming here much for obvious reasons, but a story today caught my attention. Michael Phelps is currently swimming at a World Cup meet in Stockholm. He’s not at his peak fitness by his own admission, and he’s sporting a beard, so he clearly isn’t looking to set world records. He’s still Michael Phelps, though, so it is very significant that he failed to qualify for two of his first three finals at the meet. The most glaring explanation for this is the swim suit. Swimming is doing the right thing next year by banning the ridiculous high tech swimsuits that have so changed the sport over the last couple of years. In anticipation of that, Phelps is using a regular suit at this meet while his competition uses high tech ones. This is a clear example of just how much of an impact the suits have. It seems ridiculous that a sport would allow something that would change the sport so fundamentally. It would be like MLB suddenly deciding to allow aluminum bats, or using softballs instead of baseballs. Those changes would make a mockery of hitting records just like the new suits have destroyed the meaning of world records.

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It was a great day at the Breeders’ Cup on Saturday. Zenyatta’s win in the Classic was, without exaggeration, one of the top five racing moments of my life – and I have seen a lot of them. She is truly an all-time great. She should be the horse of the year in my book without question – and that’s no insult to Rachel Alexandra. Rachel won a Triple Crown race and beat older horses, but Zenyatta’s win over older horses was far more impressive, and it came in the richest race in North America – one a female horse had never won. The field in Zenyatta’s race was far deeper than Rachel’s as well. I’d be fine with a split award this year, but if there is one winner it has to be Zenyatta.

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I won’t be watching too much college football today because of the Breeders’ Cup, but that doesn’t mean that I won’t be keeping an eye on the scores and the summaries, and probably clicking over to some games for a bit between races. Here are the stories I’ll be most interested in following:

Purdue (+6) at Michigan – I will be watching this one with fear in my heart. I have so little faith in my Wolverines right now that I am terrified of what could happen here. This is probably their last chance to become bowl eligible, so it’s an important one. There are about a million ways we are capable of losing this one right now.

Central Florida (+34.5) at Texas – Texas is looking great right now, and are back in the good graces of the media and the public. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain the momentum now that they have probably read the headlines about how great they are again. The Knights are dangerous enough that they could make this interesting if the Longhorns aren’t into it.

Northwestern (+15.5) at Iowa - The Hawkeyes need to keep winning, and Northwestern really needs a career-defining win as they attempt to rebuild their program.

LSU (+7.5) at Alabama – The Tide need a big win to gain back the public opinion that they have been losing gradually. LSU needs a big win to get back into the BCS Championship picture. Both teams will be fired up for this one.

Ohio State (+5) at Penn State – If and when the Hawkeyes falter the winner of this game is going to be there to try and pick up the pieces. This is the battle for second best in the Big Ten.

Wake Forest (+14) at Georgia Tech – The Wreck is quietly playing some fantastic football and are increasingly relevant nationally. This would move them to 9-1 if they win. If they play as well as they can then 11-1 is perfectly possible, and that’s when things get interesting.

Oregon (-7) at Stanford – This one is interesting for a couple of reasons. We get to see how the Ducks will react to a big win – if they can stay focused and on task. The Cardinal isn’t a team to be taken lightly, though, and they have a track record for killing giants.

TCU (-24.5) at San Diego State – Boise State had a bit of a scare on Friday night, and it could hurt their reputation. A big win here by TCU would further increase the gap between them and Boise State, and would make the road to the BCS all the more clear.

Vanderbilt (+35) at Florida – Florida needs to win this one in a big, big way or, if Texas or Alabama wins big, it is going to get harder and harder for Florida to justify their position atop the polls. Tebow and the team need to play like 35 point favorites here.

Houston (-1) at Tulsa – This one is going to be a good old fashioned shootout. I love that.

UConn (+17) at Cincinnati - The Bearcats need to keep winning to prove themselves, and they could stand to win by a really big margin to improve their public perception and try to move higher up the rankings.

USC (-10) at Arizona State - How do the Trojans bounce back from being blown out? We have no idea because it has never happened before under Pete Carroll. This will be educational.

The games that have me looking forward to football this weekend:

Cincinnati (-15) at Syracuse – The Bearcats need to keep winning and winning big if they want to maintain their very slight national championship chances. On the other side, this is Greg Paulus’ last and best chance to make a lasting impression as a college athlete.

NC State (+10) at Florida State - Both of these teams have been very disappointing in the face of high expectations this year. Like watching a train wreck, it will be fun to watch how bad it could get.

Ole Miss (-4) at Auburn – Both of these teams are holding on to SEC relevance for dear life. A loss here will end that for one team. I wish it could somehow be both of them.

San Jose State (+36.5) at Boise State - The Broncos need to win this one by about 100 to keep their BCS hopes alive. A tight game here would be disastrous.

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So, when did the NFL become less competitive than non-conference college football? Six of the 12 games played yesterday were decided by at least four touchdowns. That’s preposterous. It makes for ridiculously uncompetitive action, and therefore mostly uninteresting football. The good news, I guess, is that at least we aren’t taking bets on the games – books are getting absolutely killed by favorites covering monster spreads like this. The favorites were 8-3-1 ATS this week, and the three biggest spreads, usually the public money magnets that the books feast on, all covered. Ouch. The disparity in the league this year is amazing. For the first time ever we have three undefeated teams through seven weeks of the season. On the flip side, we have three teams that could quite conceivably not win a game, and for a couple more it seems impossible to believe that they have already won one (or more). I thought salary caps were supposed to bring competitive balance?

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Here are the stories capturing my attention for today:

Minnesota (+16) at Ohio State - The Buckeyes need a big win here in order to salvage something from this season. They also need Terrelle Pryor to look like the player that he is supposed to be.

South Florida (+6.5) at Pittsburgh – Neither of these teams can afford a win as they try to stick close to Cincinnati and keep the Big East BCS bid in their sights.

Arkansas (+6.5) at Ole Miss – Both these teams still have a chance to finish the season ranked, but a loss here would be a blow to those chances.

Boston College (+7.5) at Notre Dame – I don’t have a whole lot of love for Boston College, but I couldn’t possibly be cheering for them more. A third Notre Dame loss would be, hopefully, a nail in their BCS coffin. That would make me very happy.

Clemson (+4.5) at Miami – Miami goes back to playing real competition after a couple of easy weeks. The Hurricanes are by far the better team, but Clemson is playing well right now and can be pesky. This will be a test of Miami’s concentration.

Penn State (-4.5) at Michigan – A win by the Wolverines at the Big House would be a clear sign that this team is on the right track – a fast one back to respectability. Penn State’s defense has been very good, but this is by far the best offense they have faced. Surprisingly, this one could be a contest for second or third in the Big Ten.

Oklahoma (-7.5) at Kansas - The Sooners could actually be below .500 with a loss here. Hard to believe, but these guys haven’t had a single piece of luck.

Louisville (+17.5) at Cincinnati – If the Bearcats want to prove that they belong in the discussion with the big boys then they can’t get caught looking past lightweights like the Cardinals have sadly become.

Oregon (-10) at Washington - Washington has been playing well – better than their record, really. They will be desperate to keep the momentum rolling, and knocking off Oregon would certainly do that.

Tennessee (+14.5) at Alabama – I don’t for a second think that Alabama will lose. I certainly hope not, because Lane Kiffin is hard enough to take now. With a win here he would be unbearable.

Iowa (+1.5) at Michigan State – The Hawkeyes are in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten, but this is a dangerous spot for them. The public thinks so, too – the game opened with Iowa favored by 2.5.

TCU (-2.5) at BYU – With a win here TCU will likely finish the season undefeated, and will have a real chance of earning a BCS bid. BYU wants to make sure that that doesn’t happen. This one will be one heck of a war.

Florida (-22.5) at Mississippi State – Florida is badly depleted in their defensive front seven, and Mississippi State can run the ball. This could get interest. It probably won’t, though.

Texas (-13) at Missouri – If Texas plays their typically lethargic, disinterested style of this year then the Tigers may be good enough t make them pay for it.This is a big test – probably the biggest they have had this year given the injury situation at Oklahoma.

Oregon State (+21) at USC – You know that Oregon State is dreaming of another Trojan upset.

Potentially interesting story brewing in Gainesville. Florida is favored by 22.5 as they travel to Mississippi State this week. The problem, though, is that they are beat up on defense. Linebacker Brandon Spikes and defensive tackles Jaye Howard and Lawrence Marsh are three starters fighting injuries, and all are questionable for next week. Spikes is battling a groin injury that he suffered last week, and when he was out his absence was definitely noted. Florida also has some depth injuries on the d-line already, so that could make for an interesting situation – Mississippi State has the 11th ranked run offense in the country, so they could potentially be in position to exploit Florida’s issues. I’m not at all convinced that that is enough to put the Bulldogs over the top, but it at least makes the game more interesting than it would be if the Gators were operating at full intensity and effectiveness on both sides of the ball.

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As always, there are all sorts of great storylines in today’s college football action. Here are my favorites:

Oklahoma (-3) vs. Texas – Both teams desperately need this win, but for very different reasons. Texas dropped out of the second spot in the polls last week, and their play hasn’t been particularly impressive. They need an impressive win over a good team in order to prove that they are a good team and that they belong in the BCS Championship game. Oklahoma has had a very rough year – two losses, the injury to Sam Bradford, and so on. This team is better than a 3-3 team, or at least they should be. They won’t be if they don’t win here, though. There is real desperation on both sides, and that leads to good drama. It also doesn’t hurt that these teams don’t exactly like each other.

Iowa (+2.5) at Wisconsin – Iowa is still undefeated and poised to keep climbing up the charts. They face a tough rival here, though, and they aren’t exactly coming off a tour de force performance in their narrow win over Michigan last week. They need to win, and win big, here to continue to gain respect and climb the polls since they are burdened by playing in a pretty underwhelming conference this year.

USC (-10) at Notre Dame – This is being painted as the game of the week. Like so many games of the week featuring USC, I expect this one to be a bust. Notre Dame has a largely one-dimensional offense, and they haven’t run up against a defense as good as USC has. Notre Dame has played very close games against teams that it should be totally outclassing. For all their faults this year, the Trojans are significantly better than any team they have faced. I don’t see how the Irish can measure up. This could be the end of yet another Heisman campaign – Jimmy Clausen’s.

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