Maddux Sports Blog

Another week, another set of simulations from the PS2. It’s not the best way to pick games, but then it has probably at least as much merit as the methods used by most of the betting public. That’s why sportsbooks make lots of money.

Ohio State at Michigan State - I am surprised by what happened here, but in a very pleasant way. I really, really hate Ohio State, so any time they lose it is a good thing. That makes this a great thing. Michigan State jumped out to a quick lead when Javon Ringer broke a long TD run, and they never really looked back. The final score was reasonably close - 35-31 - but Michigan State never gave up their early lead, and Ohio State made it respectable only by scoring the last ten points. Terrelle Pryor was just okay, not putting up any of the eye-popping numbers that we are going to have to get used to in coming years unfortunately.

Missouri at Texas - I think my machine has a man-crush on Chase Daniel. That’s the only way I can explain what happened here. Daniel threw for seven touchdowns. Yes, seven. Colt McCoy had a pretty gaudy day himself, but it was nothing next to the Mizzou super-stud and, if the game has anything to say about it, future Heisman winner. Needless to say, Missouri was able to pull out the win behind that showing, coming out 59-35. The PS2 doesn’t have much respect for either of these defenses. My favorite stat to come out of ths one was that Daniel was bombing so much that he was making his defense work - the Longhorns won the time of possession battle by quite a bit.

Michigan at Penn State - I simulated this game because I obviously don’t like myself much. As a Michigan fan, I know that this one is going to go badly, but I wanted to see just how badly. Pretty bad as it turns out. As we have seen before from Michigan, they got out to a good start, opening up a 10-0 lead. Like they did against Illinois, though, they pretty much stopped there. Penn State scored, scored, and scored some more, and ended up winning a wild one 48-24. The only saving grace was that Michigan didn’t turn the ball over 15 times in the game like they seem to be so fond of doing this year. Still, not good.

So, there you go. The machine has spoked, and it has said Michigan State, Missouri, and Penn State.

Worst NFL Game Of The Week - No contest here. There are a few games that aren’t particularly interesting, but only one that is virtually assured to truly and epically suck. Detroit is terrible. The Texans have some bright points, but they aren’t ready for prime time yet. It’s a clear sign of just how bad this game could be that Houston is favored by nine. A 1-4 team should not be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone.

Best NFL Game Of The Week - Given the sudden resurgence of the Browns and the fall from grace of the Redskins maybe it is their game because we have no way of knowing what is coming. It could have been New Orleans and Carolina, but it lost some of its’ charm with the blowout loss by Carolina this weekend. That leaves us with San Diego at Buffalo. If the Chargers can look half as good as they did against New England ths weekend then this will be a very good way to get a sense of whether the Bills are contenders.

Game With Teams With The Most To Prove - Baltimore at Miami. Both teams have shown promise, and both are probably a bit better than expected, but both are at that point where they could either salvage a respectable season or things could get ugly. Both teams need a big performance here to recapture momentum.

Ridiculously Over-hyped - There really isn’t one that fits here this week. Have you noticed how the media and the public are finding it hard to find teams to hype this year? This is a crazy season, so it’s hard to figure out who to love, and as soon as you do you just end up disappointed.

Oddest Line - Dallas has lost two of three. They have covered once in their last five. Their soap opera unveils more twists and turns every week. Their quarterback is on the shelf for a month, and a guy who is old enough to have gone to college with Vince Lombardi is taking his place. It’s a clear sign of just how bad the Rams are that they are still 9.5 point underdogs here.

Best College Game - No contest here - it’s Missouri at Texas. The Tigers weren’t nearly as good as I expected them to be against Oklahoma State. The Longhorns had a second half against Oklahoma that I didn’t think they had in them. This is another measuring stick in the ridiculously tough Big 12.

Filling Me With Dread - I have no dread left in me for this year. Michigan can’t beat Toledo. We’ll get crushed by Penn State. I’ve come to terms with that. At this point I am braced for, and frankly expecting, 2-10. Anything beyond that is a bonus.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Western Michigan (+3) at Central Michigan. The MAC West is shaping up to be a dogfight. Ball State is ranked, but these two teams are right there with the same conference record. The winner here will be in good position to challenge. Stanford (+2.5) at UCLA. This one is only interesting for one reason - I’ll be siting in the 12th row in the Rose Bowl soaking up the rays and watching it. Any game is better when you are at it - even one with a team as bad as UCLA. UTEP (+17) at Tulsa. Tulsa shoots the light out in every game. No one plays offense better. UTEP doesn’t play defense, and they can score a bit, too. This one could go over 100. Or maybe 200. Georgia Tech (-2.5) at Clemson. Tommy Bowden is out on his ear. Finally. I expect the team to play much better than they have been this week just because they’ll be relieved to be rid of that idiot.

Biggest Line - USC (-42) at Washington State. The Cougars are really, really bad. I have a cousin who goes there. She loves her school, but even she couldn’t come up with a single reason to like this team. And that was before the team lost, and didn’t cover, six games. This game is ridiculous, but not nearly as ridicuous as the Cougars’ program has become.

1. Convinced that the Big 12 is the best conference this year yet? The conference is so loaded and tough that they absolutely cannibalized each other this weekend. Oklahoma State was the lesser Missouri before this weekend, but for now at least that has been reversed. Texas spent a lot of their game looking like they were determined to lose, but finished on a vengeance and, strangely, claimed the top spot in the poll. For now the power structure of the conference is clear, but you get the real feeling that that could all change several times over this year, starting next week when Texas and Missouri meet.

2. Speaking of the Big 12, I’ve said this before, but I am struck by what a bright coaching future Bo Pelini has in front of him. Nebraska got crushed and humiliated by Missouri last week. This week they took a very good Texas Tech team to overtime. Over the last few years Nebraska would have pouted and self-destructed after the first loss, but this team has poise and confidence that the team desperately needed. A few years from now we’ll be talking like Nebraska like we did in the Osborne era.

3. Wow, does it ever suck to be a Michigan fan. I knew things were going to be rough, but every time it seems as if we have bottomed out we find a new low. Toledo? really? Ouch. I’m undyingly loyal to my team, but I may just check out for the rest of the year for the sake of my blood pressure, and find another team to temporarily cheer for. I could follow my wife’s lead and go for Minnesota. They are surprisingly good this year, and that surely can’t last, so maybe I should take it while it lasts.

4. I don’t know if I am impressed by Florida or disappointed by LSU. All I know for sure is that I don’t know what to make of the Gators. Some weeks they look like world powers, and other weeks they look like they are starting a long and painful decline (for reference see: Wolverines, Michigan). I have to pass on this team for now because I am confused and frustrated by them.

5. What now Bill Belichick? There wasn’t a whole lot to build on in that massacre. Two months ago it would have seemed ridiculous to ask, but how strange would it be to see a playoff cycle that doesn’t include the Pats? Very strange, but increasingly likely. Here’s a sentence I never thought I would write about any team, ever: It’s time for the Kevin O’Connell era.

6. Every time I see Jeff Garcia get a chance to start and lead his team to a convincing victory, and every time I see how confident and calm the huddle looks when he is in it, I have to ask why the guy can’t seem to get a job. There are at least a dozen teams in the league that would significantly upgrade their QB play by starting Garcia. He’s a ridiculously underappreciated talent.

7. They must be breathing a massive sigh of relief in Indianapolis tonight. For the first time all year both the offense and the defense had the swagger that has made this team so deadly over the years. Manning wasn’t at his very best, but he was as close as he has been since his injuries. Marvin Harrison was a threat again - something I thought might never happen again. The defense finally seemed to believe that it could function without Bob Sanders. It should be interesting to see if they can maintain this momentum. On the other side of the field, Joe Flacco, after being named starter for the rest of the year, showed how far from looking like a starter he is. It must be a very tough decision as team management to throw away a season to give a quarterback the seasoning that may or may not lead to brighter days ahead. On the other hand, it’s not like this was a tough choice for the Ravens - they didn’t really have a better choice.

8. Charlie Frye is not a good quarterback. At all. I would be hard pressed not to bet against him automatically any time Seattle hands him the ball. That’s not much of a risk, though - I’m pretty tempted to bet against Seattle any time they hit the field. They are 1-4 ATS, and that’s flattering to their play.

9. 26/30 for 320 yards and three touchdowns. Even if it came against the Raiders that is a ridiculously good line for Drew Brees. The Saints are 3-3. 6-4 down the stretch would get them to nine wins. If they hit that and Brees doesn’t lose his arm then it would seem at this point that he should think about building a trophy case for that MVP hardware.

10. The NFC North is a lousy collection of football teams. Chicago is fading, Minnesota is deeply flawed and horribly coached, and Detroit is a waste of oxygen. Green Bay has to beat anything resembling a good team before I have any faith in them.Ugly and, more significantly, boring group.

Texas (+6) at Oklahoma - These teams both have underrated defenses (though the Longhorns quickly need to figure out how to stop the pass), and quarterbacks that are pretty much as good as it gets in the college ranks. The stakes are incredibly high - the winner is the temporary king of the incredibly tough Big 12, and the loser quite probably sees their national championship aspirations end. On top of that all, this is one of the two or three most heated rivalries in the country, and the neutral ground and evenly split crowd gives it a special feel. This should be a great one.

Nebraska (+20.5) at Texas Tech - This one won’t be nearly as great, but it should be educational. Nebraska had a disastrous outing last week - so bad that coach Bo Pelini apologized to the entire state after the game. He’s new to his post, but he is a very good coach, so it will be interesting to see what he can do in a week to get this team back together. On the other side, this is another chance for Texas Tech to prove itself, and we get another chance to what this freakish offense.

Michigan State (-1) at Northwestern - This one is noteworthy just because a lot of people won’t remember the last time that Northwestern was actually somewhat compettive. They are on the verge of making the AP poll, and are in the coaches’ version. This is their biggest test, and our chance to see, against a pretty solid team, if the Wildcats are for real. It’s also a good chance to see what Javon Ringer is made of, and what he can do against a team that has so far been fairly decent against the run.

Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin - After a very promising start, the Badgers find themselves in a freefall. They’ve lost two in a row, and they have to be desperte to turn things around and try to salvage this Big Ten season at least a little. Unfortunately, to do that they have to find a way to beat the hottest team in the conference. Penn State is firing on all cylinders, and this is our best chance yet to see if we need to consider them nationally, or if they have just taken advantage of a reasonably soft early schedule.

LSU (+6) at Florida - There has been something missing with Florida this year - that indescribable aura that has surrounded them throughout the Urban Meyer era. Before now, you just knew the team was going to be in form whenever the team took the field. Now you just don’t know what you are going to get. They have, at times, looked as good and as bad as a team can. This is a stout test, and similarly a chance to see if LSU, a team playing better than most expected, is as good as they appear.

Oklahoma State (+14.5) at Missouri - These teams are eerily similar, but only the home team is getting real attention. They both have QBs who can shoot the lights out, and receivers who make it look way too easy. Missouri has yet to take a misstep yet, and seems to be one of the most complete teams in the country. The Cowboys are upstarts, but upstarts that could give a team serious headaches if they are taken lightly.

My PlayStation prognostications got off to a terrible start in the first week, going 0-3, but it rebounded very nicely this week with a 2-1 mark. If you haven’t been following it, I am having my PS2 simulate three college games each week using NCAA 09. Let’s see what happens this week. The machine is feeling a little cocky.

Texas (+6) vs. Oklahoma - The Red River Rivalry is one of my four or five favorite games of the year. I don’t have a particular tie to either team, but as a general rule I hate Oklahoma less. Given that, the results of the simulation worked very well for me. Texas couldn’t get much going, and Colt McCoy made more mistakes than expected, as Texas lost to Oklahoma 38-14. Sam Bradford is my favorite QB in the country right now, and he showed why in this game, throwing for four touchdowns and running for a fifth. Texas turned it over four times, including two picks by McCoy. This game is such a big one, because it probably effectively ends the season of the losing team. Those stakes on top of the screaming, divided crowd should make this one a classic. My machine says Oklahoma will cruise to the easy cover.

Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin - My first thought when I saw this spread was that it didn’t give Paterno’s boys enough credit. My PS2 agrees. The spread HD has been a potent offense this year, and the prowess continued. Wisconsin got out to a strong early start, and was actually up 14-0 in the second quarter, but then the wheels fell off. Penn State had 31 unanswered points, and ended up winning it 45-24. Evan Royster was again a big part, adding 112 yards and two touchdowns. Daryll Clark had two interceptions that he probably wishes he could have back, but he made up for it with five TD passes. Paterno continues to prove that you don’t have to be able to walk or stay up past 6:00 p.m. to coach well.

LSU (+6) at Florida - The machine was loving the favorites so far, but the trend ends here. This was a hard fought battle that was more defensive than some might have expected, and in the end the Tigers lost, but just by a field goal - 17-14. Tim Tebow ran and passed for a TD, but turned it over twice as well. A further blow for the Heisman defense. Jarrett Lee passed for both LSU scores. Showing how realistic these simulations can be, the incredibly fragile and overrated Percy Harvin was injured in the game.

So, there it is. Covers by Olahoma, Penn State, and LSU - so says the wise machine.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - There are a couple that could fit the bill here. There’s an NFC North showdown between Detroit and Minnesota that doesn’t have a lot to offer. I know Minnesota is coming off a big Monday night win, but I am still stunned how a team can be outplayed that badly and still come out ahead. Detroit is just plain terrible. There’s another game, though, that I think has the potential to be even worse - the Holmgren Bowl. Green Bay is a struggling team - they lost to Atlanta, after all. Seattle’s just a mess. They won’t be at their worst because this isn’t in the eastern time zone, but they still aren’t very pretty. Two flawed teams in a funk meeting up - sounds like a recipe for a late afternoon nap.

Best NFL Game of the Week - Coming into the season it was clearly going to be New England at San Diego. I don’t trust the Pats, though, and San Diego is just coming off a loss to Miami. It goes from a must watch to one I’d skip if I got a better offer. In terms of pure fireworks, Dallas at Arizona should be fun - especially if you like scoring. I’m also personally intrigued by Carolina and Tampa Bay, though that might not be shared by most people.

Game With Teams With The Most To Prove - This is where San Diego and New England fit in. San Diego desperately needs to get their act together and prove that they are worthy of making the playoffs, never mind being a legitimate contender. New England needs to show that they are the team that beat San Francisco comfortably last week, not the one who got beat up by Miami in the previous game.

Ridiculously Over-hyped - There’s not really one that the media will get truly crazy about this week. The pick probably has to be the Dallas - Arizona game. The media has a lot to bite into here between Jerry Jones meddling with his bench during the game, and Kurt Warner rather publicly discusiing retirement.

Oddest Line - I understand that they are at home, but it seems very odd that a team that was not only beaten by Miami but thoroughly handled would still be favored by six over a New England team coming off a nice win. In my mind that’s a bit more respect than the Chargers have earned this year.

Best College Game - LSU and Florida will be interesting, and Oklahoma State and Missouri should have its share of fireworks, but there is no contest here. The Red River Rivalry, or Shootout, Or Showdown, or whatever we are supposed to call it now, is one of the great football rivalries. It is always interesting to watch, and especially so this year when Oklahoma may be the best team in the country, but we won’t know for sure until after this test. Both of these quarterbacks are at the top of their game, so it should be an offensive clinic.

Filling Me With Dread - Coming off an ugly, ugly win against Illinois, my beloved Michigan now plays Toledo. As rough as the season has been for Michigan, they should completely outclass Toledo. They are favored by 16.5. Given how they played in the last three quarters against the Illini, though, my real fear is that they will find a way to lose this one. That would hurt. A lot. I still have hopes for bowl eligibility - even if it means a meaningless pre- Christmas bowl - and thes is the kind of game we need to win to get there.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Minnesota (+12) at Illinois. A showdown between teams fighting to occupy the second tir in the Big Ten. Minnesota has played very well this year, and this is their chance to rpove that they are a changed team. To do that they will have to find a way to contain Juice Williams - no easy task. Notre Dame (+7.5) at North Carolina. Here are two overachieving teams. Only one can come out victorious. Obviously. The real difference here is that I don’t hate North Carolina. Arizona (-6.5) at Stanford. Arizona is putting together a decent season, and perhaps just in time to save Mike Stoops’ job. This is another decent test for them - the kind they need to win. Louisiana Tech (+7.5) at Hawaii. The Warriors showed a surprising spark last week in beating Fresno State. This s a chance to see if it was for real or just a fluke.

Biggest Line - Idaho (+34) at Fresno State. The Bulldogs are coming off an ugly loss to Hawaii. There are few better ways to break out of a funk than playing the Vandals. Despite the pathetic competition, Fresno State doesn’t inspire a lot of hope here - they haven’t covered n their last four tries.

A few things occupying my thoughts:

Monday Night Football is just a couple of hours away. I am torn in the game. The big thing that stops me from backing New Orleans enthusiastically is the loss of Sedrick Ellis. I have no idea what the impact of his absence will be, but I am very curious to find out. He’s really coming into his own, and he would have made it much harder for Minnesota to run. Since they can’t really pass, that would have been important. This isn’t going to be a classic game, but it is certainly an interesting one to consider. Talented but terribly flawed teams.

As I write this the Rays are running away from Chicago and look to be heading to the second round. I really can’t wait for their series against Boston. The home field will be huge for them, and I like their chances of going on. I wonder what kind of odds you could have gotten before the season started on a Rays-Dodgers series. Strange, but true.

I just read that Brian Westbrook has two broken ribs to go with his bum ankle. That’s a big blow for the Eagles. In my mind that puts them in the drivers seat to become the one NFC East team that doesn’t make the playoffs.

I laugh at Plaxico Burress. I’ve always thought he was a big baby, and that last game, with him out on suspension, sure didn’t do much to reinforce the myth of his irreplacability.

Rich Rodriguez ripped his Michigan offense for their inept play over the last three quarters, and the lack of desire they showed. Good job, Rich. That was embarrassing.

Mark Sanchez doesn’t have any structural damage in his knee. That’s good news. He’s sitting out of practice today and maybe longer, though, and he’s day-to-day for Saturday. I will be very interested to watch the line movement as things get closer to kickoff if his position is still unclear. As it is, a 25.5 point line against Arizona State seems pretty hefty. Think of how it would look with Mitch Mustain under center.

1. Alabama isn’t as good as we thought. I don’t like Kentucky much at all. This should be a rebuilding year for them. That makes it more than a bit concerning to me that they played the Tide as close as they did. Any team can have a bad day - just ask USC or Ohio State. My concern with Alabama, though, is that Kentucky was able to set the tone on both sides of the ball at times, and they were able to completely neutralize the passing game. That doesn’t bode well for a team that still has two or three tough games ahead. I know that they beat up on Georgia, but I don’t like them, either. My comfortable prediction - Alabama won’t finish the year in the top five.

2. The Big 12 is the best conference in the country. By far. Shut up SEC fans - I don’t want to hear from you. The Big 12 is loaded. Oklahoma and Mizzou have yet to take even a minor misstep. Texas Tech found their mojo in a big way this week. I have doubts about Texas that I think will come to fruition against Oklahoma this week, but so far they have been more than solid. Oklahoma State is clearly on the rise. Colorado and Kansas have issues, but both can do damage. I love the Big Ten, but there is no better group to watch, or bet on, than the Big 12.

3. Last weekend was an anomaly on the USC front. I can’t even begin to explain what happened against Oregon State, but I am confident that it won’t happen again. The team that shredded Oregon bore no resemblance at all to the one that lost to the Beavers. I might yet be proven wrong, but I now think that that game will be a momentary blip on a ferocious year.

4. Butch Davis is a very good coach. In only his second year, he has made North Carolina a legitmate team. In their last four games they have thrashed Rutgers and UConn, beat Miami, and narrowly lost to Virginia Tech. That’s a good month for any team, never mind one that has been as bad as the Tar Heels have been for as long as they have.

5. Okay, okay, okay. I admit it. The Titans are good. And the Giants, too. Just don’t ask me to like either of them much. Or trust them, for that matter.

6. I really, really misjudged the Redskins. I wrote them off before the year, and felt very smug in the decision after the first game. Since then, though, they have been the best team in the league. They have won four in a row against potental playoff teams. Most impressively, they have won consecutive road games against division rivals. That’s saying something in the best division in the league. Jim Zorn has to be high on the coach of the year list.

7. Seattle is doomed. Did you see a single redeemable thing they did today? There wasn’t one. Bad team, and awful at traveling. I can’t wait until their long trips to Florida - they have two left. I can’t help but think that the stupid situation around their coaching - Holmgren as a lame duck with Mora waiting in the wings - is damaging them.

8. The Lions are incredibly terrible. I don’t see how benching Jon Kitna is going to help, though. It’s not his fault that the team is so poorly assembled and ineptly coached.

9. The Falcons are making my head hurt. Every instinct I have is that they should be a year or two away from legitimacy. Yet here they sit at 3-2, with a win against a supposedly decent team this week, and a QB who is mostly solid. I respect the work they are doing, but I still won’t touch them until they beat a solid team playing well. That’s not the Pack at this point in my mind.

10. Norv Turner is a terrible, awful coach who immediately needs to find a job that has nothing to do with football. He is making a mess of the Chargers like only a few people on this planet could.

11. Matt Schaub just won serious job securty and he didn’t even play this week. There had been all sorts of calls in Houston for Sage Rosenfels, but his last three minutes of that Indy gamewere so indescribably bad that no fan of that team will want to see him ever again.

Once again, here’s a look at the games this week that are catching my eye. As always, I want to be clear that these are picked out because they have interesting storylines, not because I suggest that they are good bets, or that I am making a pick. When I am looking at games I definitely differentiate between the games that I am interested in betting and the ones I am interesting in exploring further. These games fit into the latter, and they are just fun to think about. Put another way - some games I only watch because I bet on them. These are the games I would watch whether I had any action or not.

Kentucky (+15.5) at Alabama - There is a strong sentiment out there that Alabama should be at number one. They humiliated Georgia last week, and they have looked absolutely flawless so far this year. As things go along it will continue to be interesting to see if they are as good as they look, or if they might falter at some point. Kentucky shouldn’t really be a strong test for them, but then this is a team that isn’t supposed to be undefeated at this point. Just ignore the fact that they have played a ridiculously soft schedule.

Texas Tech (-7) at Kansas State - The Red Raiders have been mostly deadly efficient, but they haven’t faced any hardcore tests at this point. Kansas State is hardly Alabama, or even Kansas, but they are a real team, and they can rise up and surprise teams from time to time. It will be very interesting to see if Texas Tech is up to the test, and what Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree can do now that a few more people will be paying attention to them nationally.

Auburn (-3.5) at Vanderbilt - I’ve been very disappointed by Auburn. They weren’t great against LSU, and they have played two of the dullest games of the year against Tennessee and Mississippi State. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has been surprisingly good. This is the best team that they have played, and this will be a good test to see just how good they are. They will have the boost of their home field fans, and that sure helped them against South Carolina.

Connecticut (-7.5) at North Carolina - This isn’t the first time I have said this - I love what Butch Davis is doing at North Carolina. He has that program going in the right direction, and in a hurry. UConn is ahead of schedule, too, and that’s also due to solid coaching. UConn is only barely ranked, but any win over a ranked team counts, so UNC will be playing their best. This one should be fun to watch. If nothing else, we can pretend that it’s a basketball game - this would be a classic.

Oregon (+16) at USC - The Trojans have a whole lot of redemption that they need to find. Oregon just needs to find a quarterback. Both of these teams have issues, but both will be very hungry to prove themselves and make something of a season that could get away from them.

Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin - Before the season this game was circled as a showdown for Big Ten supremacy. Now each team has had a humiliating loss, and Penn State may very well be the best team in the conference. Both of these teams need to make a serious statement here to salvage some dignity and self-respect heading into the rest of their schedule. It will be very interesting to see which team s up to the challenge, if they both can focus when it matters here unlike they have done in the past, and whether Pryor and Wells will be contained or if they will erupt.

Missouri (-10) at Nebraska - I was more excited about this one before Nebraska went out and had a frustrating loss to Virginia Tech last week. Still, Missouri is as exciting as any team in the country when they have the ball, and Nebraska has a lot to prove under their new regime. The Husker fans will be fired up, and Bo Pelini will pull out all sorts of tricks for his biggest game as a coach. This one could be fun. It could also be a total shootout, and that would be fun too.

Time once again to look at what NCAA 09 on my PlayStation 2 has to say about three of this week’s more interesting games. If last week was any indication, you might want to do exactly the opposite of what it says - the machine was an ugly 0-3 ATS. We’ll see if it can do better before we give up on it entirely. As with last time the machine will do all of the work, and I have updated the rosters accordingly.  Without further ado:

Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt - This one didn’t entirely mirror an Auburn game - there was actually scoring. It also wasn’t entirely typical because Auburn’s offense was more effective through the air than on the ground. QB Chris Todd had a ruthlessly efficient game, ending up with three TDs and a gaudy QB rating. Chris Nickson wasn’t nearly that effective, but that fits with reality - he is not a passing machine. In the end, Auburn came from behind to win 28-21 and cover the spread.

Oregon (+16.5) at USC - USC needed to bounce back in a big way from a terrible effort last week. Though it wasn’t pretty, they pretty much did. The final score was 20-0, so their fearsome defense was actually fearsome again. Oregon was truly terrible, managing just 75 yards in total offense. Their quarterback problems finally caught up to them. Mark Sanchez only completed 55 percent of his passes, and had just one TD, but at least he eliminated the mistakes that were so costly against the other team from Oregon.

Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin - The Badgers shouldn’t have lost to Michigan last week, and they played like they were still too ombarrassed by that to focus. They got behind early to the Buckeyes, and though they fought hard they just couldn’t come back to win. Ohio State ended up winning 24-17. They did it mostly on the ground. Beanie Wells had a solid game, complete with a touchdown. The star, once again, was Terrelle Pryor. He threw for a touchdown, and scampered 75 yards for another one.

So there it is - according to my wise piece of video game technology, Auburn, USC, and Ohio State are going to cover. It’s like a window into the future.

We’ll delay our PS2 simulations for a day because there are just too many interesting stories bouncing around out there that need to be looked at:

1. Lane Kiffin - I can’t believe what a bizarre mess this has become, and given that it was the Raiders I expected it to get ridiculous. By leaving Kiffin twisting so long, Davis seriously damaged any progress his team could ake this year. BY getting rid of him in the ridiculous way he did - refusing to pay him what he is owed and then unleashing in a bizarre, barely coherent press conference - he has alienated any players that were still loyal to Kiffin, and has ensured a split in the locker room. It’s almost as if Davis doesn’t want to exist. I certainly won’t be touching this team in their next game, but my guess is that they are going to come out flat. I just don’t know how they can play well through this circus.

2. Aaron Rodgers - This right here is why the Pack should have brought Favre back. The old man is an iron man, while Rodgers is made of glass. He has a sore shoulder, and has been limited to just doing handoffs in practice this week. I doubt he will play, and even if he does he won’t be at his best. That means that the team has to rely on one of two quarterbacks who just sn’t ready for prime time. This team just isn’t good enough to throw away a game or two, and Rodgers just isn’t durable enough for the long term. I don’t know what the long term answer is for the Pack - maybe they just hope that Brian Brohm is as good as people thought he would be after his junior year. Betting against Green Bay will be worth a look depending upon how this plays out in the next day or two.

3. Beanie Wells - Wells said he still thinks he can win the Heisman despite missing a huge chunk of his team’s season, and only being good, not superhuman, upon his return. Wells clearly does drugs. I would take bets at pretty much any price if someone wanted to bet that Wells is right.

4. Bo Pelini - Nebraska’s new coach gets points for ambition. He says that his team’s goal is to shut out Missouri. Clearly another heavy drug user.

5. Omar Minaya - The Mets are about to lock up their GM until 2013. Yes, the same Mets that have faded to miss the playoffs despite being in a comfortable position at the beginning of September two years in a row. The same Mets that have spent millions and millions and yet never managed to build a serious contender. Terrible, terrible move. I only hope that they change their mind before they make it official.

Worst NFL Game of the Week - This is harder to spot than most weeks - the matchups mostly have at least a little interest. That means that, more than any week so far, there really isn’t a truly bad game here. That means we have to pick the worst of a decent bunch. In my mind that’s going to be Cincinnati at Dallas. The Bengals are truly, absolutely awful, and they may not have Carson Palmer in action. Even if they do he won’t be healthy. The Cowboys had an off game, and I expect them to come back hungry and angry. This one should be a dull, lopsided mess.

Best NFL Game of the Week - As I said before, there are a lot of good games this week, but none that are true and obvious classics, so this is a tight competition. There are a couple or runner-ups. Tennessee at Baltimore is a battle of two teams that are better than they were probably expected to be, and it should be a classic defensive battle. Buffalo at Arizona is a good test of a team that has been an upstart and wants to prove that they are for real. For my winner, though, I have to go to the most consistently excellent division in the league so far this year - the NFC East. Washington and Philly are both promising teams that don’t quite have their acts completely together, but they both have obvious promise. It should be good.

Game With Teams With the Most to Prove - Indianapolis and Houston. Coming into the season the Colts were favored to win their division, and a lot of people had Houston picked as a wild card team. They have combined to go 1-5 so far. They both have a world of problems, but both present just enough points of optimism to keep fans interested. A loss here will be a huge blow to either team.

Ridiculously Over-hyped - Terrell Owens has assured that we are going to hear about the Cowboys way, way more than we need to. Thanks, buddy.

Oddest Line - Though I don’t have a real problem with it given what has happened this year, it would have seemed truly bizarre to see San Diego favored by less than a touchdown against Miami before the season started. The Chargers were supposed to be much, much better than they are, and Miami has looked pleasantly solid on their rebuilding path.

Best College Game - It’s a strange week in college - lots of interesting games, but again none that stand out as instant classics. My pick has to be Oregon at USC. The Trojans were inexplicably bad last time out, and they have a lot to prove against a team with troubles of their own, but which can cause all sorts of problems nonetheless. The Trojans are heavy favorites at 16.5 points, but that won’t be a lock if they haven’t recovered dramatically from last week.

Filling Me With Dread - Last week, my beloved Michigan Wolverines played the worst first half of any team all year (21 total yards, five turnovers), yet when the dust had settled they had somehow posted a miraculous comeback to beat the number eight Wisconsin Badgers by two. I certainly didn’t see that one coming, and I liked it a lot. Now, when we play Illinois, I have to worry that that one was just a fluke, and that we’ll go back to playing just like I thought we were going to last week. That won’t be pretty. As strange as it seems, Michigan is favored in the game. Though just by 2.5 at home, so it’s less than the home field advantage.

Four Interesting Games Between Unranked Teams - Duke (+14.5) at Georgia Tech. Duke won their first ACC game since about before their players were born last week, and they are clearly improved. Paul Johnson has made quite the impact in a short time at Georgia Tech. This is a way more interesting game than it would have been last year. Stanford (+7.5) at Notre Dame. The battle of the eggheads deatures two teams which are playing better than expected, and certainly better than last year. UConn (+6.5) at UNC. This would be one heck of a basketball game, but surprisingly it’s not a bad football game, either. UConn is ranked and on the rise, while Butch Davis is showing the world he is the real deal in Tar Heel country. Texas A&M (+25) at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are ranked and looking good, but the real  interest here is how bizarre it is to see a team with a reasonable legacy like the Aggies be this badly respected.

Biggest Line - The biggest we have this week is a relativey modest 28.5, and that mark is shared by two games. BYU travels to terribly outmatched Utah State, while the independent Western Kentucky travels to the frustratingly inconsistent Hokies of Virginia Tech. Neither will be worth watching in any way.

1. The polls are essentially meaningless at this point in the season. Ranked teams that played unranked teams were 6-9 ATS this week. Five of those ranked teams lost their games despite being double digit favorites. The lower ranked team won both games played between ranked teams.

2. I know this doesn’t mean much because I previously said I was confident that USC was the best team in the country, but I am confident that Oklahoma is the best team in the country. Sam Bradford decimated a stout TCU defense, and the team has the swagger of a team that is good and knows it. Many would argue that Alabama is better. I can’t dispute how good they looked against Georgia, but I haven’t felt good about the Bulldogs since before this season started, and Alabama is so far ahead of where I expected them to be right now, that I need to wait to see a bit more from them before I am confident that they are as good as they look.

3. I am not sure how my beloved Michigan beat Wisconsin after getting just 21 yards on offense, and I don’t want to examine what it means about the Big Ten too closely, but I sure like it. The stunning halftime adjustment was truly impressive, and a bright sign of a happy future in the Rich Rodriguez era.

4. Tim Tebow will not win two Heisman’s, but Terrelle Pryor just might given the way he has started. He couldn’t get much going through the air on Saturday, so he did it on the ground. Scary.

5. I am endlessly fascinated by how a guy like John Parker Wilson can be just barely average for three years and can suddenly look like Joe Montana as a senior. Confidence is a strange thing. And having Julio Jones to throw to certainly doesn’t hurt in this case.

6. I don’t know how a guy like Mike Shanahan has managed to be in the NFL for as long as he has without learning that at least a little attention to defense is a good thing. The Broncos play very solid offense, but they are bad as it is possible to be on the other side of the ball. They made the Chiefs look like last year’s Patriots. It will be a while before I trust that Denver team again.

7. The Favre performance was impressive, and I can’t take anything away from it, but it never would have happened if Kurt Warner were even sort of capable of protecting the ball. I don’t understand how a guy like Warner can pass so well but totally turn his brain off otherwise. I like Warner a lot, but I am beginning to think that the time for the Leinart era is here.

8. I like Carolina. Quite a lot.

9. I’m thinking it might be time for me to start believing in the Titans. I still don’t get it, but it is getting harder and harder to deny it. It’s not just that they are winning, but that they are covering with ease. I guess that that tells us that I’m not the only one who has had trouble coming to terms with the team.

10. The most impressive performance in a loss this week was Matt Schaub. His job was in serious jeopardy, with fans and the media calling for Sage Rosenfels, yet he stepped up huge. He completed almost three quarters of his pases for 307 yards and three touchdowns against a decent Jacksonville defense, and he continued to develop a promising relationship with Steve Slaton. The Texans still lost, and their season is in danger of becoming a real disappointment, but I liked what Schaub showed.

It’s time for another look at the key games of interest this weekend from among the top 25. As always, I haven’t picked these out because they necessarily represent the best bets, and I am not representing them as picks. They are merely the ones with the storylines that I find most interesting this weekend. Without further ado:

Minnesota (+20) at Ohio State - The Gophers aren’t getting a lot of respect - this game opened at 17 and has moved to 20 in some places. That’s interesting given the solid start that Minnesota has had (undefeated for the first time since man has been walking upright), and the high profile challenges that Ohio State has faced (forgetting how to play football against USC - a team that apparently isn’t invincible after all). The public loves flashy QBs, and Terrelle Pryor is certainly that. His emergence has made the fickle public forget some of what happened. This is one of the biggest games Minnesota has played in years, so it will be an intriguing test of where the Buckeyes are at.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn - The Tigers have to bounce back from a tough loss against LSU last week - their first at home in the battle of the striped cats in a decade. The Vols have to bounce back from sucking. It’s a much bigger task for Tennessee. The pollsters didn’t really punish Auburn for how they carried themselves. Both teams are facing adversity in their own way, and this game will tell us which one is handling it better. It will also tell us just how much trouble Phil Fulmer is in.

Wisconsin (-6) at Michigan - This one may only be interesting to people like me who like Michigan. I’m simultaneously scared and intrigued to see what kind of adjustments and corrections Rich Rodriguez will have pulled off in his week off. Lord knows that there is a lot for him to do. That will be interesting, and so is the line here. Wisconsin beat a good Fresno State team on the road last time out, and scored a ton in their first two. Michigan was embarrassed last time, and just hasn’t looked good. Despite that, the line is at a relatively modest six. It actually opened at five. That’s lower than I would have guessed, and a sign that from a distance people aren’t as horrified by Michigan as I am from up close.

TCU (+18.5) at Oklahoma - I love this game. Oklahoma has the fourth best offense in the league by the stats, and it may even be better than that when it comes down to it. TCU has the best defense in the country by the numbers. The stakes are huge for both teams - Oklahoma wants a chance to dance in January, and TCU wants to crash the BCS party. This game could be close or it could be a dominating blowout. No matter what, it is going to be fun.

Alabama (+6.5) at Georgia - The Tide have looked better than they were expected to, and Nick Saban appears to have them ahead of schedule. Georgia has been fine, but not nearly as good as people hoped. This is a chance for either team to make a huge statement and to climb on top of the pile for now in the tough SEC. Things could go any way, but if my dreams are answered then Saban will get humiliated - I hate that guy.

If there was any doubt that college football is the craziest, greatest, most heartbreaking sport there is it was all dispelled tonight in Oregon. If you live nder a rock and missed it, the Oregon State Beavers took a 21-0 lead into halftime against USC, and then held on to win 27-21. The game just ended, so here are my immediate thoughts:

1. Mike Riley is a very good coach, and he is a true master of recruiting and developing running backs. Steven Jackson, Yvenson Bernard, and now Jacquizz Rodgers. Despite the venerable USC defense, Rodgers torched the Trojans for 186 yards and two touchdowns. Most of the yards were right up the middle. This was Rodgers’ fourth career college game. I guess the pressure didn’t get to him.

2. This is why college football trigonometry doesn’t work - Oregon State was crushed by Penn State, USC crushed Ohio State, Oregon State beat USC. Therefore, is Penn State the best team in the Big Ten by a wide margin?

3. As happy as people are in Corvallis, I can only imagine that a celebratory beer or two is being consumed right now at Oklahoma, Missouri, Georgia, LSU and the other elite programs. It was going to be hard to displace and undefeated USC from that top spot.

4. Who does Pete Carroll kill first? Because someone is going to die over this one.

5. I didn’t think it would be possible, but it looks as if the Pac-10 could actually be sort of interesting. This development won’t do anything to shut up the league’s harsh critics, though.

6. Ohio State really sucks.

7. There was all sorts of craziness in baseball tonight, too, but I just don’t have thenergy to deal with it after this game.

8. I now have absolutely no idea who is good or bad in college football, and I may not even try to figure it out anymore.