How To Make Winning NBA Picks
10 Tips on How to Make Winning NBA Basketball Picks
Professional basketball has a six-month season where each of 30 teams plays 82 games. That means there’s a lot of opportunity for the sports bettor to make NBA picks each and every week. This isn’t like the NFL, which plays a fairly limited number of games. Thus, the bettor who focuses on pro basketball has to be ready to hit the ground running when the season starts. You really need to know your stuff so that you can discern what odds offer you value and are a good bet. Here are ten tips to help you make winning NBA picks.
Preseason homework—do it. Before the season ever begins read as much as you can and then some about the league, each team, players and coaches. Look at the teams that dominated last season and also those that had breakout years. Will they do the same last year? What about last year’s non playoff teams that bettors normally don’t pay as much attention to? Are they better, worse or the same?
Matchups are very important and these need to be addressed for every game that you bet. You may find a spread that you really like but after crunching some numbers you realize it’s actually a bad bet. Don’t bet based on what you already know about a team. Be sure to wager based on the latest information.
Start early. That means you should consider overnight lines at night when they are first set. These can be relatively soft and although betting limits are lower at night, they are still high enough for most sports bettors. They are low because books know the spreads are not as rock solid as they need to be. The overnight spreads are out there to generate action and interest. The closer you get to game time, the tougher the NBA betting line is to beat.
Do not discount top defenses, especially in the first half of the season. When offenses are struggling out of the gate they can keep totals down and they can win close games. Most teams can score in the NBA but not all can stop other clubs from scoring. Tight spreads favor such teams.
During the season look for that great team that was blown out the night before by one of the worst teams in the league. Chances are they are going to come out and try to annihilate their next opponent. And there is a good chance they will do just that.
Also, look for that topnotch team on a road trip that has won two straight in three days and is about to play it’s third game in four days. They could be prime for an upset. They’re tired, feeling sure of themselves and want to get home.
Betting on the second-half of a NBA game can turn out to be a lucrative venture. In second-half wagering you are putting money on the team that you think will post more points in those final two quarters. Often it’s the team that’s behind. This is especially true if the club that’s losing is a good one that has been underachieving in the first half. Also, a great team that has a huge lead will often let down in the second part of the game with the team that’s trailing outscoring them. That team that losing may not win the game but they may win the second half. Finding which team is going to give more effort in the 2nd half normally will net you a winner. Finally, lines for the second-half are made and posted very quickly. That’s to your advantage too.
As the season gets closer to the end and teams get run down their defenses tend to get more lax. Look for a game where a run and gun team may be going up against a club that loves to play defense but may just be tired. Also, this is a time to really consider the over in the over/under, as a tired defense tends to be less effective. Finally, look for teams that are out of contention a phoning it in. All of these letdowns could put cash in your pocket.
Consider the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Effect. This is the team that cannot be beat at home and cannot win on the road. They exist and you should bet on them when at home and also bet against them when on the road until the NBA oddsmakers make a home/road dichotomy adjustment.
Finally, it’s a good idea to use a professional NBA handicapper and to follow his advice. These guys are the pros who know all about the pros and who have the inside story on games, players and organizations. For a small amount of cash, you can really get a nice cushion from going with a professional handicapping service.
Use these NBA betting tips to make money and temper your choices throughout the season. Be on the lookout for the team that is prime for picking and for the situation that favors you as an NBA handicapper. Remember that although the players are professionals, they are also human and can have off nights and bad games. Wagering on the NBA is a daily process during which the league is constantly changing and evolving.