Week Eight College Football Picks: Texas Tech Red Raiders at TCU Horned Frogs
#17 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #23 Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Saturday, October 20, 2012, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Amon Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas
Opening Line: TCU -2 1/2
Current Line: Texas Tech -1 1/2
Opening Total: 56
Current Total: 55
Opening Money Line: TCU -140 / Texas Tech +120
Current Money Line: Texas Tech -125 / TCU +105
Former Southwest Conference rivals Texas Tech and TCU meet for the first time as Big 12 foes Saturday in Fort Worth. The rivalry dates back to 1926, but they haven’t played since 2006. The Red Raiders lead the series 28-23-3, but TCU is 18-11 in Fort Worth, including a 12-3 win in the 2006 contest.
Texas Tech is 5-1 this season and 2-1 in the Big 12 under coach Tommy Tuberville. The Red Raiders are #17 in the initial BCS standings. The only loss for Texas Tech came at home to Oklahoma 41-20. The Red Raiders have home wins over Northwestern St 44-6, New Mexico 49-14, and last week against then #5 West Virginia 49-14. Texas Tech has road wins at Texas St 58-10 and Iowa St 24-13. The Red Raiders are 5-1 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season. Tech was a 3 point underdog against West Virginia and the total was 74.5.
Texas Tech is averaging 537.3 yards per game on offense, including 369 passing yards and 168.3 rushing yards. The Red Raiders are #10 in total offense and #4 passing. Tech is outscoring opponents 40.7-16.3 this season. The Red Raiders are in the top 20 nationally in both points scored and allowed. Texas Tech is -4 in turnovers. Texas Tech is averaging 63.2 penalty yards per game. The Red Raiders are 50/88 on third and fourth down conversions, and 28/32 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns. Tech has given up 8 sacks this season. It isn’t surprising to see the Red Raiders have a top ten offense, but most fans are shocked at how well Tech is doing on defense so far. The Red Raiders are #4 in total defense nationally allowing just 243 yards per game, including the #5 pass defense giving up a paltry 143.7 yards, and 99.3 rushing yards per game (#12 nationally). Red Raider opponents are 38/101 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/13 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. Texas Tech has forced 9 sacks this season.
Texas Tech quarterback Seth Doege has completed 159/225 passes (70.7%) for 1,891 yards with 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He has been sacked 6 times. Running back Kenny Williams has 62 carries, 376 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 8 catches, 75 yards, and a touchdown. Eric Stephens, Jr. has 58 carries, 319 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 26 yards. SaDale Foster has 55 carries, for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 36 yards. Six Texas Tech receivers have at least 16 catches and 166 yards. Tight end Jace Amaro has 23 catches, 394 yards, and 4 touchdowns. He is doubtful with an chest injury. Darrin Moore has 29 catches, 314 yards and 7 touchdowns. Eric Ward has 24 catches, 295 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Javon Bell, Bradley Marquez, and Jakeem Grant all get significant catches as well. Marquez is doubtful with a knee injury. Texas Tech has a ton of depth at receiver, but that will be tested with so many injuries.
TCU is 5-1 this season and 2-1 in the Big 12 under coach Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs are #23 in the BCS Standings. The only loss came at home against Iowa St 37-23. TCU has home wins over Grambling 56-0 and Virginia 27-7, along with road wins at Kansas 20-6, SMU 24-16, and last week at Baylor 49-21. TCU is 3-3 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season. The Horned Frogs were 6 point underdogs at Baylor last week and the total was 69.
TCU is averaging 429.3 yards per game, including 258.2 passing and 171.2 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are outscoring teams 33.2-14.5 this season. TCU is +6 in turnovers despite having 14 turnovers. The Horned Frogs are averaging 71.3 penalty yards per game, and have allowed 9 sacks. TCU is 44/98 on third and fourth down conversions and 21/30 scoring in the red zone including 17 touchdowns. The Horned Frogs are allowing 300.8 yards per game, including 205.3 passing yards and 95.5 rushing yards. TCU is in the top 15 nationally in total defense, against the run, and in scoring defense. The Frogs have forced 20 turnovers and 16 sacks. TCU opponents are 23/87 on third and fourth down conversions and 7/11 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns.
TCU quarterback Casey Pachall was suspended for the rest of the season after he was arrested for DWI several weeks ago. He withdrew from school to enter rehab. Freshman Trevone Boykin took over as the starter. Boykin has completed 54 of 80 passes (67.5%) for 605 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and 42 catches, 217 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back B.J. Catalan has 53 carries for 247 yards, along with 11 catches for 97 yards. Matthew Tucker has 56 carries, 229 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 5 catches, 48 yards and a touchdown. Aundre Dean has 45 carries, 181 yards, and a receiving touchdown on his only catch of the season. Running back Wayman James is out for the season with a torn ACL. Laderice Sanders only has 3 carries, but has 2 touchdowns. Receiver Brandon Carter has 26 catches, 425 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Josh Boyce has 30 catches, 381 yards with 4 touchdowns, and also has a rushing touchdown. Skye Dawson, LaDarius Brown, and Cam White will also get some catches.
Texas Tech hasn’t been shut out in 187 straight games. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS after scoring 40 points or more, 5-1 overall, and after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 4-1 after passing for 280 yards or more, 6-2 in road games, and 5-2 after a straight up win.
TCU is 7-1 ATS after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 2-5 in conference games, 1-4 after a straight up win, and after a win by 20 points or more, 0-4 after scoring 40 points or more, 0-5 after a cover, and at home against teams with winning road records.The Horned Frogs are 28-2 straight up in the last 30 home games.
Although TCU looked good on offense last week against Baylor, we really don’t know how good the offense is. Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the country. It will be much tougher sledding against Texas Tech’s top 10 defense, that just shut down West Virginia’s high powered attack last week. TCU is tough at home, but I like Texas Tech to pull off the road win.
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