Week 4 NCAA Football Picks: (4) LSU Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores

(4) LSU At Vanderbilt

Time: 11 AM CST Saturday

Spread: LSU -23.5

Total: 62.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

No. 4 ranked LSU improved to 3-0 with its 65-14 stomping of Northwestern State last week. It defeated then-No. 9 Texas in Week 2 by a score of 45-38, and its season opener was a 55-3 ride over Georgia Southern. Now it faces SEC rival Vanderbilt as heavy 23.5-point favorites despite being on the road. The betting total is set at 62.5 total points according to NCAA Football oddsmakers at 5dimes.

LSU

LSU’s only real test thus far was its win over Texas, but it has amassed some gaudy stats in the wake of its opening three wins. Joe Burrow has already thrown for 1,122 yards this season with an almost absurd 83.3 percent completion ratio. He is averaging 12.5 yards-per-attempt with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions on his 90 throws. Even backup Myles Brennan has fully thrived with a 71.4 percent ratio and 187 yards on 15 of 22 passing.

The receivers are having a field day, particularly Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall Jr. That duo has 374 and 229 yards, respectively, while having accounted for 10 of the Tigers’ 11 touchdown passes between them. Ja’Marr Chase adds depth with 168 yards as the No. 3 option, while tight end Thaddeus Moss has been a valuable target for Burrow as well. Moss has just three catches (one per game on average) but is picking up 25.3 yards per pass on those plays.

The backfield has been a moderate disappointment, but it could improve. Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the team with 182 yards on 37 carries, and the Tigers have scored nine TDs via the rush, but it also averages just 3.6 yards-per-carry as a team. Burrow has been ineffective rushing from the QB position, as well, with just 2.4 yards-per-carry on his 17 tries. The Tigers are still hoping to get more from No. 2 and No. 3 running backs, Tyrion Davis-Price and Lanard Fournette.

Both average about three yards-per-carry, and neither has made a play for more than 10-yards yet on this season.

Helaire is the lead back with 37 carries and more than those secondary options combined, but he cannot do it all, and as the SEC schedule toughens up LSU is going to need a little more depth rushing the ball to take some of the poundings off of Helaire.

VANDY

Vanderbilt is winless at 0-2, having lost to Then-No. 3 Georgia in Week 1 and suffering a second loss to Purdue, 24-42. The Commodores do not have much relief in sight, either. It faces Northern Illinois next week before Ole Miss, UNLV, Missouri, South Carolina, and then Florida. The Commodores will likely be underdogs in all six of those upcoming games, too.

Riley Neal has done a decent job at quarterback despite the losing. He has thrown 38 of 60 (63.3 percent) for 463 yards with two touchdowns. He has thrown one interception and suffered five sacks, but neither of those is deal-breakers necessarily either. What hurts the Commodores more so is that the team averages just 3.3 yards-per-carry and has just one rushing TD.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn is the entirety of the workload almost, and he has 32 carries for 130 yards and the lone TD. Vandy really can blame its defense for the loss to Purdue, and it had no chance against Georgia at any rate in the opener. Facing LSU its chances are not much better, and this is not really one of the games that will provide a ton of excitement this week with the Tigers likely to devour the Commodores on its home stage.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

Louisiana State
  • Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 conference games.
  • Tigers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.
  • Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
  • Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
  • Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Tigers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games in September.
  • Tigers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Vanderbilt
  • Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
  • Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Commodores are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.
  • Commodores are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • Commodores are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Commodores are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
  • Commodores are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Commodores are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Commodores are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
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