Underdog Special: Virginia Looking to Upset FSU

The moneyline special pick of the week sees us fading the noles on the moneyline

Two new head coaches battle each other when Jimbo Fisher and his Florida State Seminoles travel to Virginia to take on Mike London and his Cavaliers. Fisher is replacing the legendary Bobby Bowden, while London is replacing the forgettable Al Groh.

The visiting Seminoles opened as 7 point favorites, and the line has been rock steady. The public is playing FSU at about 70%, but taking the Cavaliers and the points seems like a better investment. Also, Virginia is +235 on the moneyline, and taking them to win straight up in this contest isn’t a bad idea, either.

The technical numbers support a play on Virginia. Over the past 3 years, the Cavaliers are 3-1 ats when they’re a home underdog between 3 ½ and 7 points; they’re 7-2 ats in the month of October; they’re also 9-7 ats when playing against a team with a winning record. On the flip side, FSU is a dismal 1-8 ats off a win against a conference rival, 1-9 after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, and 0-1 as a road favorite between 3 ½ and 7 points.

The Seminoles have been strong the past 2 weeks. They’ve dominated BYU and Wake Forest at home, easily covering the spread in each case. The defense has been surprisingly effective, allowing only 10 points combined in those 2 games and under 200 yards in each one. Offensively, FSU has demonstrated that they don’t live and die with the arm of Christian Ponder. They ran for over 200 yards in each of their past two contests.

So why fade FSU in this match-up? One reason, already given, is the situational numbers. Another reason is the way they played in their only road game. Granted, it was in Norman, Oklahoma. But of Oklahoma’s 4 wins, that was the only one by more than a touchdown. They rolled the Seminoles, 44-14. And that’s counting a meaningless touchdown by FSU on the last play of the game. Another reason is that both BYU and Wake Forest are already having down years, and that should continue. They both had to go to Tallahassee to play a team that’s good enough to beat up on lesser teams, but not good enough to compete with decent teams on the road.

Virginia is a decent team. They’ve beaten 2 cupcakes, but Richmond is a good FCS team. The Cavaliers won handily, 34-13. That was an important game for Coach London, who is the former Spiders coach. They recently dominated another FCS school, VMI, which was also an in-state battle. But the game worth noticing is when Virginia traveled across the country to play USC. They outgained the Trojans and only lost by a field goal, easily covering the 20 ½ point spread. So while FSU was dominated by a good team on the road, Virginia traveled twice as far and nearly beat a good team on the road.

The Cavaliers are a forgotten team in the ACC, which has a lot of parity this year. Don’t be surprised to see Virginia play a role in how that conference shakes out. They have good talent and a winning coach.

The Seminoles will have a tough time in this match-up. The technical numbers speak volumes here. FSU has not been good in this situation. Now they have to play their second road game against a team that won’t back down. Virginia’s defense has been great. They’re only giving up 280 yards a game, and that includes a 330 yard effort at USC. Consider a moneyline play on the Cavaliers, but taking Virginia and 7 points is the safer play.

Like always, the best way to have a guaranteed return on your sports investment is by joining the winning team at Maddux Sports. They’re on an incredible college football run and have a college football game of the year today. Do your bankroll a favor and sign up now!

Share This Post
Posted by on Oct 1 2010. Filed under College Football, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

Comments are closed

Log in