Maddux Sports Blog

My PlayStation prognostications got off to a terrible start in the first week, going 0-3, but it rebounded very nicely this week with a 2-1 mark. If you haven’t been following it, I am having my PS2 simulate three college games each week using NCAA 09. Let’s see what happens this week. The machine is feeling a little cocky.

Texas (+6) vs. Oklahoma - The Red River Rivalry is one of my four or five favorite games of the year. I don’t have a particular tie to either team, but as a general rule I hate Oklahoma less. Given that, the results of the simulation worked very well for me. Texas couldn’t get much going, and Colt McCoy made more mistakes than expected, as Texas lost to Oklahoma 38-14. Sam Bradford is my favorite QB in the country right now, and he showed why in this game, throwing for four touchdowns and running for a fifth. Texas turned it over four times, including two picks by McCoy. This game is such a big one, because it probably effectively ends the season of the losing team. Those stakes on top of the screaming, divided crowd should make this one a classic. My machine says Oklahoma will cruise to the easy cover.

Penn State (-6) at Wisconsin - My first thought when I saw this spread was that it didn’t give Paterno’s boys enough credit. My PS2 agrees. The spread HD has been a potent offense this year, and the prowess continued. Wisconsin got out to a strong early start, and was actually up 14-0 in the second quarter, but then the wheels fell off. Penn State had 31 unanswered points, and ended up winning it 45-24. Evan Royster was again a big part, adding 112 yards and two touchdowns. Daryll Clark had two interceptions that he probably wishes he could have back, but he made up for it with five TD passes. Paterno continues to prove that you don’t have to be able to walk or stay up past 6:00 p.m. to coach well.

LSU (+6) at Florida - The machine was loving the favorites so far, but the trend ends here. This was a hard fought battle that was more defensive than some might have expected, and in the end the Tigers lost, but just by a field goal - 17-14. Tim Tebow ran and passed for a TD, but turned it over twice as well. A further blow for the Heisman defense. Jarrett Lee passed for both LSU scores. Showing how realistic these simulations can be, the incredibly fragile and overrated Percy Harvin was injured in the game.

So, there it is. Covers by Olahoma, Penn State, and LSU - so says the wise machine.

It’s time for another look at the key games of interest this weekend from among the top 25. As always, I haven’t picked these out because they necessarily represent the best bets, and I am not representing them as picks. They are merely the ones with the storylines that I find most interesting this weekend. Without further ado:

Minnesota (+20) at Ohio State - The Gophers aren’t getting a lot of respect - this game opened at 17 and has moved to 20 in some places. That’s interesting given the solid start that Minnesota has had (undefeated for the first time since man has been walking upright), and the high profile challenges that Ohio State has faced (forgetting how to play football against USC - a team that apparently isn’t invincible after all). The public loves flashy QBs, and Terrelle Pryor is certainly that. His emergence has made the fickle public forget some of what happened. This is one of the biggest games Minnesota has played in years, so it will be an intriguing test of where the Buckeyes are at.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Auburn - The Tigers have to bounce back from a tough loss against LSU last week - their first at home in the battle of the striped cats in a decade. The Vols have to bounce back from sucking. It’s a much bigger task for Tennessee. The pollsters didn’t really punish Auburn for how they carried themselves. Both teams are facing adversity in their own way, and this game will tell us which one is handling it better. It will also tell us just how much trouble Phil Fulmer is in.

Wisconsin (-6) at Michigan - This one may only be interesting to people like me who like Michigan. I’m simultaneously scared and intrigued to see what kind of adjustments and corrections Rich Rodriguez will have pulled off in his week off. Lord knows that there is a lot for him to do. That will be interesting, and so is the line here. Wisconsin beat a good Fresno State team on the road last time out, and scored a ton in their first two. Michigan was embarrassed last time, and just hasn’t looked good. Despite that, the line is at a relatively modest six. It actually opened at five. That’s lower than I would have guessed, and a sign that from a distance people aren’t as horrified by Michigan as I am from up close.

TCU (+18.5) at Oklahoma - I love this game. Oklahoma has the fourth best offense in the league by the stats, and it may even be better than that when it comes down to it. TCU has the best defense in the country by the numbers. The stakes are huge for both teams - Oklahoma wants a chance to dance in January, and TCU wants to crash the BCS party. This game could be close or it could be a dominating blowout. No matter what, it is going to be fun.

Alabama (+6.5) at Georgia - The Tide have looked better than they were expected to, and Nick Saban appears to have them ahead of schedule. Georgia has been fine, but not nearly as good as people hoped. This is a chance for either team to make a huge statement and to climb on top of the pile for now in the tough SEC. Things could go any way, but if my dreams are answered then Saban will get humiliated - I hate that guy.

As we did last weekend, here’s a look at what I think are the most interesting top 25 games of the weekend. Not included on here is the obvious one - USC-Ohio State. If you’re not totally sick of hearing about that game by now then you are a better person than me. For the record, I think USC will win, but I think the line movement has been utterly ridiculous this week. It also doesn’t include perhaps the most interesting top 25 game of the week - Kansas-USF - because that one has already happened.

Nevada (+26.5) at Missouri - Missouri is going to win this one. That’s virtually certain. What will be interesting to watch, though, is whether Nevada can replicate what they did last week. That’s when they stifled and frustrated Texas Tech for a good portion of the game. The Tigers and Red Raiders are different teams, obviously, but they both have explosive, dangerous offenses. I’m not convinced that Nevada will be able to do it again. After all, the shut down is all relative - Texas Tech still scored 35 points. There is also potential for the Tigers to explode here. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

UCLA (+8) at BYU - The Bruins have to get their heads screwed back on straight after they have had two weeks to read and hear just how impressive their first big upset win over Tennessee was. This will be a good opportunity to see what kind of control Rick Neuheisel has over his new team. It’s also a chance to see if BYU can bounce back from a disappointing performance against Washington last week. I would like this game more if it was at UCLA, but it is still a chance for us to see if BYU is for real. Or UCLA, for that matter. More than two-thirds of the public likes theBruins.

SMU (+36) at Texas Tech - Texas Tech hasn’t looked good so far, even though they have won twice. I am not alone in thinking before the season that the Red Raiders were a legitimate force in the Big 12. So far things haven’t looked quite right for the offense. This game against a hopeless opponent (with apologies to June Jones, who will turn this team around given time) will be a chance for us to see if there are actually problems with Tech, or if it has just taken them a while to find their stride. I really need to be convinced that Graham Harrell is healthy.

Wisconsin (-2.5) at Fresno State - This has a good chance to be the classic game of the weekend. I have really been impressed with Wisconsin. I knew they would be able to run the ball at will, but I wasn’t expecting the versatility that they showed last week by focusing heavily and successfully on the pass against Marshall. Fresno State has very high expectations this year, and they looked good beating Rutgers in their lone game (though UNC on Thursday showed that that isn’t as impressive as it could be). This is perhaps the biggest game ever played in Fresno, and the crowd is going to be out of control. I truly believe that this one could go either way. No matter what, it is going to be fun to watch.

UNLV (+24) at Arizona State - With apologies to a Rebels fan I know, UNLV stands no chance here. It probably won’t be very interesting. What I want to see, though, is how good Arizona State looks. Like they probably are, I’m looking ahead to next week. Georgia travels to Tempe next weekend. I’m not currently convinced that the Sun Devils really stand a chance, but a strong performance in this game could make it much more interesting, and could put a lot more play into the line.