Maddux Sports Blog

Saturday was a very interesting day at Wimbledon. Venus Williams beat her sister, won her fifth Wimbledon title and second straight, and proved conclusively that she is without a doubt the best female grass player in the world despite her frustrating inconsistency. The sisters put their competitive differences aside a couple of hours later to cruise to an incredibly easy win in the doubles final. Finally, Canadian Daniel Nestor and new partner Nenad Zimonjic made their second straight grand slam final, but performed better this time around by winning in four sets.

That’s all fine, but the main event that we have been waiting for takes place tomorrow.The final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal was as close to inevitable as anything can be in sports. They are so clearly the best players in the world that it is laughable, and they have played in the last two Wimbledon finals and the last three at the French. Neither has been particularly challenged so far in the tournament. The fact that we all knew that this showdown was coming makes it no less interesting or exciting.

Despite the fact that Nadal has been crowned as the new king of tennis by much of the press, and Federer is getting the least respect that it is possible for a five time defending champion to get, Federer is still the favorite in this match, albeit by a smaller than normal margin. Pinnacle has Federer at -135, leaving Nadal at +125. As I said at the start of the tournament, I am enthusiastically on the side of Federer. Here, in brief, are five reasons:

1. Federer has 40 straight wins at Wimbledon. He is virtually unbeatable on grass. Nadal can’t say the same.

2. Federer has 10 career titles on grass, including five at Wimbledon. Nadal has one.

3. Despite opinions to the otherwise, Federer is in very good form. In his last three tournaments he reached the final at the French on a surface that isn’t a strength, won a grass tournament, the Gerry Weber, and has cruised to a final here. Granted, Nadal is one step better - he won the French and his grass prep. It’s a big mistake, though, to assume that Federer is in trouble. Neither Novak Djokovic nor Bjorn Borg knows what they are talking about on that front.

4. Federer is older, wiser and, despite his plethora of wins, I have the feeling that he is hungrier here. He is on top of the tennis world, but he is being threatened. He’s too much of a champion to take that challenge lying down. Further, he has the clear memory of the embarrassment he suffered in the French on his mind, and he won’t like that.

5. Federer is back to being healthy. Poor health accounted for much of his downswing, so the return to health can’t be underestimated.

Spain suffered a damaging, and potentially fatal, blow as they prepare for the Euro 2008 finals against Germany. Striker David Villa will miss the finals thanks to a sore hamstring. Villa is the tournament’s leading scorer, and he has been dynamite both when he is scoring and when he isn’t, so his loss is a real blow to both the team’s chances and their confidence. Spain is still fairly heavily favored to win it all (surprisingly heavily, really), but Germany becomes an even  more attractive underdog given this news.

Very strange story coming out from the NBA Draft concerning Darrell Arthur. Reportedly several teams passed on him because of news of kidney problems. Atlanta was the only team that actually tested him, though, and they gave him a clean bill of health. That news didn’t seem to get out in time, though, and he fell from a likely spot in the lottery all the way down to 27th. That will cost him a lot of money, but it also has to be ridiculously frustrating and a bit humiliating for the player. If he is the kind of guy that can use that as motivation then it could fuel a good year for him. I just can’t believe that we are getting the whole story. Surely in this age teams would have done their homework about something like that. That’s especially the case for San Antonio. THey culd have picked him one spot sooner than he was picked, but instead they went for a guy from IUPUI that no one has ever heard of that almost certainly could have been had later on. Even if the Spurs didn’t like Arthur it probably would have made sense to acquire him purely as an asset.

The White Sox crushed the Cubs today, and the  Mets humiliated the Yankees. What does it say about me that I get a perverse and profound pleasure from both developments. Unfortunately, the Yankees came back and returned the favor in the second half of the double bill.

Ana Ivanovic became the latest top three seed to fall at Wimbledon today, following Maria Sharapova and Novak Djokovic. The third round departure was the earliest exit by a number one seed since 2001. The bloodbath at the top is bad news for bettors, but the sportsbooks must be loving it because they will be making a killing from people looking to make the safe hit. I don’t expect the disaster to continue on the men’s side. In fact, I am very confident that it will be Nadal - Federer in the final. Yet again.

The Tigers have now won 14 of 18, and they are looking pretty much exactly like we expected them to (except for Dontrelle Willis, who is toiling away in obscurity in the minors somewhere). I was about to write that Tigers fans must be relieved and thrilled, but as I think about it I just think that if I was a Detroit backer I would be pissed. We knew all along that they could play like this, so why did they insist on throwing their season away with that horrendous start? Thankfully, they play in the AL Central, so the playoffs are not at all out of the question despite the fact that they have not yet returned to .500. To win the division, though, they will have to hope that the Twins remember once again that they are the Twins. Minnesota won their tenth in a row, and 12th in 13 games tonight. Talk about a team getting it done with smoke and mirrors.

Novak Djokovic is an absolute moron, and I suspect that there is no one more embarrassed on the planet right now. If you missed it, he spent a great deal of effort last week telling everyone who would listen to him that Roger Federer was vulnerable. Since Djokovic was set to play him in the semi-finals at Wimbledon if they both made it that far, the clear assumption was that Djokovic was going to beat him. I have no problem with a claim like that. You have to back it up, though. Djokovic didn’t even come close. He came out in the second round of the tournament and fell in straight sets to Marat Safin. Safin used to be good once, but those times are a distant memory. Djokovic should have been able to win the match in his sleep, but instead he looked lethargic and unfocused. Even worse, he whined his way through the whole match. Terrible. This is one more reason added to an already large pile why I don’t buy into the prevailing theory that Djokovic is a future number one.

So far, so good for the Blue Jays after their change of manager. After a seven game losing streak the team has one two in a row. More importantly, the offensively inept team has scored 22 runs in the two wins, and their 22 hits in the 14-1 win over Cincinnati last night was the best by any team all year. The most noticeable thing when you see the team play is that they are visibly relaxed. Under John Gibbons they were tense and they didn’t look like they were having any fun. Given that the change is so noticeable it seems odd that Gibbons was able to hold on so long. This team should, on paper anyway, be able to hit much better than they have been.

The best part of that Toronto - Cincinnati game last night was the line posted by Reds’ starter Bronson Arroyo. He lasted one inning, allowing 11 hits and 10 earned runs. It doesn’t take a math major to figure that that makes for an ERA of 90.00 on the game. That hurts the long-term stats - it bumps the ERA from an already dismal 5.55 to an ugly 6.52. Ouch.

Wimbledon gets underway today and goes on for the next two weeks. For once, the mens’ side holds some intrigue. For the last five years Roger Federer has won the title, and he has done it with ease bordering in ridiculous. This year, though, things are a bit different. He hasn’t had the dominating year he has had recently, and people aren’t nearly as scared of him as they used to be. Bjorn Borg said perhaps the most ridiculous thing in history when he suggested that Federer was done and that if and when he lost at Wimbledon he would probably retire. Novak Djokovic is only the third best player in the world, and he hasn’t had any more success beating Federer than he Rafael Nadal, but even he called out Roger this week. Their is definitely the smell of change in the air.

Let me say this as quickly and directly as I can - Roger Federer is not going to lose. He will win his sixth straight championship on the grass in front of the Queen. I’m all for guys speaking out, and it’s about time that someone grew a backbone when talking about the guy, but to view him as anything other than the solid favorite here is just ridiculous. Need a reason? Here are four:

1. He’s won five freaking titles in a row. No player in the world is more perfectly suited for the surface or plays it at such a high level. He is so far ahead of the crowd that he can win on it even if he isn’t at his best. Nadal has only won one career tournament on grass. Djokovic has yet to prove that he is ready to play with the big boys. Behind those three there is little to get excited about. David Nalbandian, the seventh seed, should have been as strong on grass as anyone, but he was upset by a little known Canadian in the first round.

2. He is coming off a final at the French. Federer isn’t particularly good on clay, and Nadal made him look foolish in the final of the French Open. That’s not the important thing. The key is that he made the final. And he has for each of the three years. He is far from the best player on the surface, yet he keeps making it through the draw. He’s just that good, and forgetting about that is just dumb.

3. You don’t fluke into 12 titles. Remember the U.S. Open a couple of weeks ago. Tiger had a torn ligament and a broken freaking leg, yet he still won. He’s better and he wants it more. Federer is the Tiger of the tennis world. The trash that everyone else is talking will only make him madder and make him want to win more. Djokovic is on track to hit Federer in the finals, so waving a red cape in front of Federer is proof of just how smart the youngster isn’t.

4. He’s still the heavy favorite. Bodog had Federer on at 1/1 to win the tournament. Nadal was next at 7/4, and Djokovic was way back at 5/1. No other player is better than 16/1. Don’t be fooled into thinking that it is particularly close.

5. He’s coming off a win. Federer won the Gerry Weber Open, a key grass prep, in his last start. He’s won that tournament five times in the last six years. The only time he didn’t win it was last year, and he didn’t play. A win there has been a pretty good indicator of solid form in the past, so there isn’t much reason to think that it’s not this year.