Maddux Sports Blog

It’s been several hours since the race ended, so my thoughts have had time to percolate. Here’s what I’m thinking:

I owe it to Rachel Alexandra to say that I was impressed. She didn’t like the track, but she still managed to get to the lead surprisingly easily and hold it right to the end. It wasn’t the race that her fans was hoping she had, but at least she came through for the win. A filly hadn’t done that since 1924, so she deserves a world of credit.

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The biggest single story heading into the Preakness on Saturday is the filly, Rachel Alexandra. She’s the first filly since 1999 to run in the race, and only the third since the start of World War II. No filly has won since 1924. She was sold last week, reportedly for as much as $10 million, and her new owners have paid $100,000 to make her eligible for this race because she wasn’t previously nominated for the Triple Crown. She has been installed as the strong 8/5 favorite in the 13 horse field, and I expect that price to be even lower by post time. You have to be certain that there is real value if you are going to bet on a horse with odds that low, so the biggest puzzle to address between now and post time is whether or not this filly is for real. That’s for every bettor to decide for themselves, but here’s a look at the arguments in her favor, and those that go against her:

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The Preakness entries have been received, and the odds and post positions will be set later on this afternoon. There are 13 entries, including headliners Mine That Bird, Pioneerof The Nile, Friesan Fire, and of course the filly Rachel Alexandra. It’s all but certain that Rachel Alexandra will be made the favorite. Now it just remains to be seen how much of a favorite she is. There’s a chance that she will go off at even money or better by post time. I think shes a special horse, but that would be ridiculous. We’ll look at the race more closely tomorrow and Friday.

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I’ll say this right up front – I think that Big Brown is going to win the Preakness handily and I am going to bet accordingly. Just to be contrary, though, here are seven reasons why you could choose not to bet on him if you were so inclined. As an aside, I can’t help but be haunted by the 2000 Preakness when I think of this race. Fusaichi Pegasus was a freak who was under-raced but had won the Derby impressively after a ton of hype. He was 3/10 in the Preakness against a field of largely uninspiring horses. Kent Desormeaux had that mount as well. Before the race was run everyone and their dog was looking ahead to the Belmont. He got caught at the wire by Red Bullet, a 6/1 shot who had tanked it in the Wood Memorial last time out. That was a bad year for Triple Crown watchers, and certainly not one I am anxious to relive:

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1. There are only six guys in the majors with the last name Cabrera, but it seems like there are about 212. Every time I turn around another one is in the news. The latest did it in an impressive way – Cleveland second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera turned just the 14th unassisted triple play in major league history in the second game of a doubleheader against Toronto. He dove to catch a line drive, touched second for out number two, and the tagged Marco Scutaro, the guy who should own a hundred pizza places based on his name alone, to enter history. Troy Tulowitzki had one last season, and the previous unassisted play was in 2000.

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