Maddux Sports Blog

The 2009 National Champions will be North Carolina. They clinched the title today.

That is, of course, a ridiculous statement, and I am sort of kidding, but it will be hard to pick a team that has a better chance for them after what happened today. All three of their top underclassmen who had declared for the NBA draft - Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green - hadn’t signed with agents, so all could and did withdraw from the draft at today’s deadline. That means that North Carolina, which was already favored last season, returns their six top players from last year, including national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough. On top of that, they add a top five recruiting class that includes five star freaks Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller. Outside of a notable injury problem with Lawson this was a team that had few holes last year, and that is even more true this year as the top six are more mature and hungrier than ever. The three who entered the draft learned what it will take to make the lottery, and all could potentially do it. Hansbrough has to be the happiest guy on the planet right now, and if he’s not it’s only because Roy Williams is even happier. Of course, for bettors it means that value on the Tar Heels is a distant memory.

I’ve thought it was a no-brainer for all three to choose to come back for another year all along, and that hasn’t changed. I know that it has to be hard to give up a shot at a few million dollars so you can play for free. Of the three, though, Lawson was the only one who was virtually assured to go in the first round, and he will unquestionably benefit from the extra year. He is ridiculously talented, but not as polished as some players above him, so he would have spent a fair bit of time riding the bench next year. Why do that when you can be in the driver’s seat for the big prize? Besides, if they do pull it off and win the title, their draft stocks will all benefit significantly as a result.

So we have our clear-cut, heavy favorite. The only thing that would be better at this point is if I even remotely liked the team.

I know I am supposed to be leaving college basketball behind and focus on baseball or the NBA or the NHL or something, but I just can’t let it go quite yet. As I was taking one last look at things before moving on I came across the odds for the 2009 National Championship. Now, there are a lot of ridiculously bad bets out there, but none are any worse than these. They are full of sucker bets. Here are some of the more laughable:

The favorites - There is a three way tie at the top, with UCLA, Duke and North Carolina all at +650. Just think about that for a second. Duke was pretty terrible in the tournament, UCLA is losing Kevin Love and Darren Collison, and North Carolina will likely be without Psycho T and Ty Lawson. In other words, you can invest now on a team with a clear deficiency, and two others that will likely have their hearts ripped out of them, and if you are right then you get less than seven times your money a year from now. Where do I sign up?

Kansas State - The Wildcats are at 30/1. Huh? Michael Beasley is gone, and Bill Walker will quite possibly follow. That means they will start with 90 percent of their offense gone (and I am only partly exaggerating). I’m pretty sure that a team has to make the tournament in order to win it, so I don’t see how this makes any sense at all.

Michigan - My beloved Wolverines are at 100/1. Now my glasses are as rose-colored as they can be regarding my team, but this is absolutely laughable. The team was truly awful last year. John Beilein is only now starting to recruit his players, and he has very little existing talent to build on. As much as I wish it were different, I think that 100/1 more accurately represents their chances of making the tournament, never mind winning it.

Memphis - The should-be-champs are at 12/1. Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts are likely gone, Joey Dorsey will graduate, and John Calipari is coveted by the Knicks. You would seriously have to be a moron to make this bet.

Syracuse - This one is bizarre, too. The Orange are at 15/1. Now, Johnny Flynn and Donte Greene are very nice players who will only improve this year (unless Greene stays in the draft - it’s questionable at this point), but the team hasn’t even made the tournament in two years, and none of next year’s recruits are can’t-miss blue chippers. Unless Carmelo Anthony has rediscovered eligibility this just isn’t going to happen.

Texas - The Longhorns are also at 15/1. Unlike everyone else on this list they could actually be decent value. Until the second that D.J. Augustin declares for the draft, that is. If he stays back another year, which seems somewhat unlikely, then this team could be the closest thing to a good bet on the board.

Arizona - The Wildcats underachieved this year, and only some of the problems can be attributed to the bizarre coaching soap opera. That will be remedied next year, but Lute Olson will have to figure out a way to make up for the loss of Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger. Olson is a legend, but he’s not good enough to make the 30/1 price attractive.

Florida - Let’s get this straight - the team didn’t make the tournament, the coach told anyone who would listen that he hated his players, and the team is once again going to be young, inexperienced, and full of questions. Does that sound like a team that is worthy of being the fourth choice in the country at 10/1?

UConn - The Huskies are at 15/1. Those odds are too low at the best of times, and will be truly ridiculous if Hasheem Thabeet declares for the draft. A guy that big who blocks shots as well as he does will be very attractive to NBA teams, so the temptation will be high.

Louisville - David Padgett is graduating. So is Juan Palacios. Earl Clark is likely to enter the draft. That’s a lot of holes to fill - too many to justify a 10/1 price.

Texas Tech - Bobby Knight didn’t exactly leave the cupboards full, and the Pat Knight era didn’t exactly get off to a running start. Sure, they are one of the longer prices on the board at 75/1, but does that really even come remotely close to reflecting the chances of a championship? Maybe if you add a couple of zeros.

The Field - You can bet every team not listed at 12/1 odds. Sounds like a bargain. Except that they list 57 teams including virtually every major conference contender and some mid-major contenders like BYU and Gonzaga. Unless you think that this is Stephen Curry’s year, or that Tubby Smith is going to perform a miracle in his second year at Minnesota, this is as bad as a bet can be.

The betting-related sports news that is catching my eye in five different sports

Baseball - Pitcher Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati struck out ten in seven innings and only allowed one hit and one earned run to lead his team past Arizona. This guy is ridiculously good, and he should present decent value until the public starts to figure that out.

NFL - Jack Del Rio has signed a five year contract extension with the Jaguars. That’s quite an investment in a guy who has just one playoff win. Unless he has something in his bag of tricks that I haven’t seen yet, this just tells me that the Jags will be decent but not great for the next five years.

College football - There are two quarterback races I am watching closely in spring practices - USC because they have three decent choices, and Michigan because they don’t have any. So far it seems like neither school has an early leader. Michigan only has a week and a half to find one.

NBA - Pau Gasol played 32 minutes in his first game back. He had 10 points, six boards and seven assists. That’s much better than I expected in his first game back, and a good sign for a team that needs a boost.

College basketball - Memphis has suspended reserve guard Andre Allen for the Final Four. I don’t think it is much cause for concern. One on hand he averaged 14.1 minutes per game and played in 37 games, so there is definitely a hole to be filled. He only averaged 3.3 points, though, so chances are pretty good that his time was going to be cut in this game, anyway - Calipari will go with what works best without worrying about the future too much. I’m not going to change my thoughts about the team at all, though I’m a little concerned that whatever happened to get him booted could have an impact on the psyche of the team.