Sunflower Showdown College Football Picks: Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas St Wildcats
Kansas Jayhawks at #7 Kansas St Wildcats
Saturday, October, 6, 2012, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Bill Snyder Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas
Opening Line: Kansas St -24
Current Line: Kansas St -24 1/2
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 53 1/2
Opening Money Line: Kansas St -2000 / Kansas +1200
Opening Money Line: Kansas St -2000 / Kansas +1200
The Kansas Jayhawks and Kansas St Wildcats meet for the 110th time Saturday in Manhattan in a series that dates back to 1902. The Jayhawks lead the Sunflower Showdown series 65-39-5, including 28-23-3 in Manhattan. The Wildcats have won three straight games in the series, including a 59-21 rout last year in Lawrence. K-State has won 15 of the last 19 in the series. The Jayhawks haven’t won in Manhattan since 2007.
Kansas is 1-3 this season under first year coach Charlie Weis. The Jaayhawks have lost 3 straight games since a season opening home win over South Dakota St 31-17. Kansas lost at home to Rice 25-24 and TCU 20-6 before a road loss at Northern Illinois 30-23 two weeks ago. The Jayhawks are coming off a bye week. Kansas is 1-2-1 ATS this season and the total is 0-3. In the NIU game, Kansas was a 7 point road underdog and the total was 53.5. Northern Illinois took a 13-10 halftime lead, but missed an extra point. Kansas took a 23-13 lead early in the fourth quarter on a 54 yard pick six, but the Jayhawks also missed a PAT. That was the only turnover of the game for either team. The Huskies scored 17 unanswered points to take a 30-23 lead with 4:33 to go. Kansas would get two more possessions but would never advance past their own 23. The game ended up as a push on the betting line and also stayed under by half a point.
Kansas is averaging 370 yards per game on offense, including 191.5 passing yards and 178.5 rushing yards. the Jayhawks are being outscored 23-21 this season. The Jayhawks are 18/66 on third and fourth down conversions, and 12/14 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns. Kansas has allowed 9 sacks this season. On defense, the Jayhawks are allowing 439 yards per game, including 253.2 passing yards and 185.8 rushing yards. Kansas is 88th or worse in all three categories, but is 54th in scoring defense allowing just 23 points a game. This is mainly because Kansas has forced 13 turnovers this season and only has 5 of their own. Kansas opponents are 25/65 on third and fourth down conversions, and 12/18 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns. The Jayhawks have 6 sacks this season.
Kansas quarterback Dayne Crist has completed 62 of 129 passes (48.1%) for 763 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has been sacked 9 times this year. Running back Tony Pierson has 58 carries, 309 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 135 yards. Taylor Cox has 45 carries, 266 yards, and 2 touchdowns. James Sims has 18 carries, 91 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 24 yards. Sims made his season debut in the Northern Illinois game after missing the first 3 games due to a suspension after an off-season DUI arrest. Receiver Kale Pick has 9 catches for 148 yards. Daymond Patterson has 17 catches for 147 yards. Andrew Turzilli has 7 catches, for 145 yards. Including Pierson, none of the top four receivers have caught touchdown passes, but the Jayhawks only have two passing touchdowns in four games.
Kansas St is 4-0 this season under coach Bill Snyder. The Wildcats are ranked #7 in the country. They opened with 3 straight home wins by double digits over Missouri St 51-9, Miami-(FL) 52-13, and North Texas 35-21. The Wildcats then opened Big 12 play with a 24-19 upset at then #6 Oklahoma two weeks ago. K-State is alos coming off a bye week. The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS this season and the total is 2-1. Oklahoma closed as a 15.5 point favorite and the total was 56.5. Neither team could get much going on offense in the first half. Kansas St took a 10-6 lead at halftime, thanks mainly to a one yard fumble return for a touchdown. Oklahoma took a 13-10 early in the third quarter, but Kansas St scored 14 unanswered to take a 24-13 lead with 7:27 left in the fourth. Oklahoma scored with 4:09 left to pull within 24-19 but missed the two point conversion that would have made it a field goal game. The Sooners kicked off deep, but were unable to get the ball back as the Wildcats ran out the clock. Even though Oklahoma had more total yardage than Kansas St (386-362) the Sooners were unable to establish a running game as they only had 86 yards on the ground. Three OU turnovers didn’t help either. The Wildcats had 213 rushing yards and no turnovers.
Kansas St is averaging 431.5 yards per game, including 189.5 passing yards and 242 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are outscoring teams 40.5-15.5 this season. K-State is in the top 20 nationally in rushing and scoring offense. The Wildcats are +5 in turnovers for the season. Kansas St is 26/46 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/20 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. The Wildcats have only allowed 2 sacks this season, which is remarkable when you consider how much quarterback Collin Klein runs with the ball. Kansas St is allowing 354.8 yards per game on defense including 262.8 passing yards and 92 rushing yards. Kansas St has struggled to stop the pass, but they are in the top 25 nationally against the run and in points allowed. Wildcat opponents are 22/60 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/16 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns. K-State has 9 sacks this season.
Klein has completed 56 of 80 passes (70%) for 758 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He is also the second leading rusher with 63 carries, 289 yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert has 66 carries, 426 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 29 yards. Daniel Sams has 10 carries, 127 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Tramaine Thompson has 16 catches, 260 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Chris Harper has 11 catches, 138 yards, and a touchdown. Tyler Lockett has 10 catches and 108 yards.
Kansas hasn’t won a Big 12 road game since 2008, a streak of 13 games. Kansas has lost 17 straight road/neutral site games since September 2009. The Jayhawks are 2-23 in Big 12 games straight up since the start of the 2009 season, Kansas has lost 13 straight games to FBS schools. Kansas is 3-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records, 4-1-1 after a straight up loss, 4-1 in Big 12 games, 12-5 after passing for 170 yards or less, 6-13 after allowing 200 rushing yards, 1-4 after a bye week, 1-5-1 in road games, 2-12 in October, and 0-4 in road games against teams with winning home records, The last four games in this series played in Manhattan have gone under the total.
Kansas St is 4-1 ATS in October, 12-4 overall, 6-2 after allowing 20 points, 19-7 in conference games, 8-3 after a cover, 5-2 at home against teams with losing road records, 10-4 on fieldturf, 20-8 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, and after passing for less than 170 yards, 7-3 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 9-4 after a straight up win, and 30-14 against teams with losing records. The Wildcats are 13-4 ATS against the Jayhawks recently, including 7-1 in Manhattan.
The return of Sims will help Kansas on offense, as he led the Jayhawks in rushing the last two years. He had 125 combined yards and 2 touchdowns against Northern Illinois in his first game back. Kansas St has one of the best run defenses in the country though, so I don’t know if Sims, Pierson, and Cox will be able to do much damage on the ground. Kansas St is vulnerable to the pass, but the Jayhawks have struggled through the air this season. I don’t see this game being close. The Wildcats should roll against their in-state rivals.
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