SEC Football Picks: Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, 10/29/11, 12:20 PM EST, TV:  SEC Network
Opening Point Spread:  Arkansas -10
Current Betting Line:  Arkansas -9.5
Opening Total:  10
Current Total:  9.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

College Football Sportsbook
The Arkansas Razorbacks have never lost to the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville

Arkansas heads out on the road for a second consecutive week and comes off a 29-24 win over the Mississippi Rebels as 14.5-point road favorites.  The Razorbacks actually trailed 17-0 in the second quarter before tallying 29 straight points.  “Certainly we didn’t want to start that way, but we kept competing,” commented Razorbacks head coach Bobby Petrino.  “We found a way to win and I’m happy with how we responded.”  Slow starts have become the norm for this program, facing first-half deficits in each of the last three contests.  Arkansas is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, while the ‘under’ is 5-1 in those games.

The Razorbacks may be slow starts, but they’ve outscored opponents by a 127-59 margin in the second half, including 56-17 in the fourth quarter.  Arkansas is also 29-of-32 in the red zone this season.  Quarterback Tyler Wilson is enjoying a tremendous season, not throwing an interception in his last 133 passes, leading the SEC with 2,011 passing yards.  The program has lost twice to Vanderbilt, but neither of those came in Nashville, posting a 3-0 record in the series on the road.

Vanderbilt bounced back after suffering three consecutive losses to SEC competition, hammering Army by a 44-21 score as 11.5-point home favorites.  The Commodores out-gained the Black Knights by 242 yards.  Quarterback Jordan Rodgers is still learning the position, completing just 14-of-46 passes for 233 yards and three interceptions over the last two games, while picking up 176 rushing yards on 29 attempts.  The running game is the team’s strength offensively, gaining 544 yards on the ground in the last two games.  Vanderbilt is 0-5 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points the last two-plus years.

The Commodores have been solid against the run this season, holding their last four opponents well-below their season averages.  Vanderbilt has limited the four teams (Alabama, Army, Georgia, South Carolina) to 84.3 fewer yards than they average for the season on the ground.  The program has played fewer games against Arkansas than any other member of the SEC.  The last encounter on campus, a 21-19 defeat, camer after a last-season 47-yard field goal by Vanderbilt coming up short.

Bettors will likely back the Razorbacks due to being 4-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, while the Commodores are 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.

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