Rose Bowl Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers vs #6 Stanford Cardinal
2013 Rose Bowl Presented by Vizio
Tuesday, January 1, 2012, 5:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Wisconsin Badgers vs #6 Stanford Cardinal
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Opening Line: Stanford -6
Current Line: Stanford -4
Opening Total: 47 1/2
Current Total: 47
Opening Money Line: Stanford -260 / Wisconsin +220
Current Money Line: Stanford -175 / Wisconsin +155
The 11-2 Stanford Cardinal won the Pac 12 Championship this year. The Cardinal are in their third straight BCS game for the first time in school history. The Cardinal will take on the 8-5 Wisconsin Badgers who won the Big Ten Championship for the third year in a row and are making their third straight trip to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin is 4-0-1 all-time against Stanford. The Badgers won the last meeting against Stanford 17-9 in the 2000 Rose Bowl. Stanford has only managed a 24-24 tie in the series in 1995 at home.
Stanford is 10-12-1 all-time in bowl games. The Cardinal have lost 4 of their last 5 Bowls, including 41-38 in overtime against Oklahoma St last year in the Fiesta Bowl. Stanford is 5-6-1 all-time in the Rose Bowl. Wisconsin is 11-12 all-tim in Bowl games, including 3-5 in the Rose Bowl. The Badgers have also lost 4 of their last 5 bowls including two in a row. Wisconsin lost to Oregon 45-38 in last year’s Rose Bowl.
Wisconsin coach Brett Bielema left to take over the Arkansas program. Former coach and current Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez will serve as the interim coach for the Rose Bowl. He led the Badgers to their only 3 Rose Bowl wins in program history. The Badgers hired Utah St coach Gary Andersen as the coach for next year.
Wisconsin ended up 4-4 in the Big Ten. They got a place in the Big Ten Championship game only because Ohio St and Penn St weren’t eligible for the championship game due to NCAA sanctions. The Badgers took full advantage by crushing Nebraska 70-31 in the championship game. The Badgers rushed for over 500 yards and 8 touchdowns in the rout. Wisconsin had lost 30-27 at Nebraska earlier in the season.
The Badgers have additional road losses at Oregon St 10-7, and last week at Penn St 24-21 in overtime, along with home losses to Michigan St 16-13 in overtime and Ohio St 21-14 also in overtime. All five losses are by a touchdown or less, and four of the five were by 3 points. The Badgers have home wins over Northern Iowa 26-21, Utah St 16-14, UTEP 37-26, Illinois 31-14, and Minnesota 38-13, along with road wins at Purdue 38-14, and Indiana 62-14. Wisconsin is 6-7 ATS and the total is 8-4 this season.
Wisconsin averages 400.4 yards per game on offense, including 162.6 passing yards and 237.8 rushing yards per game. The Badgers are #12 in rushing and #115 in passing nationally. Wisconsin is outscoring teams 31-19 this season. The Badgers are +4 in turnovers with 11 giveaways. Wisconsin averages 36 penalty yards per game and has allowed 27 sacks this season. The Badgers are 71/196 on third and fourth down conversions and 40/49 scoring in the red zone with 32 touchdowns. On defense, Wisconsin allows 321 yards per game, including 196.5 passing yards and 124.5 rushing yards. The Badgers are in the top 25 nationally in all defensive categories. Wisconsin has forced 15 turnovers and 31 sacks this season. Badger opponents are 79/222 on third and fourth down conversions and 27/29 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns.
Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave missed the last 4 games with a broken collarbone. However Stave has been cleared to play in the Rose Bowl, and is listed officially as probable. He took over as the starter from Danny O’Brien midway through the season. Curt Phillips has started the last three games, with O’Brien as his back-up. Alvarez hasn’t announced his starter for the Rose Bowl, but Stave and Phillips could both see some action. Stave passed for 1,104 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. O’Brien has thrown for 523 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception. Phillips is 36/65 passing for 457 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception, and also has 35 rushing yards.
Running back Montee Ball has 332 carries for 1,730 yards with 21 touchdowns, and 9 catches for 65 yards. He set the NCAA career record for total touchdowns. James White has 119 carries, 802 yards, and 12 touchdowns, along with catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. Melvin Gordon has 53 carries, 570 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches, 65 yards and a touchdown.
Receiver Jared Abbrederis has 46 catches, 793 yards, and 5 touchdowns, along with 83 rushing yards. Jacob Pedersen has 26 catches, 346 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Jordan Fredrick, Derek Watt, and Kenzel Doe will get significant targets as well. Doe has a punt return for a touchdown. Five defensive players are on the injury report including 3 defensive backs.
Stanford was 9-1 in the Pac 12 under coach David Shaw. In order to win the Pac 12, Stanford had to beat UCLA in back to back weeks to close out the season. The Cardinal won at UCLA 35-17 in to clinch the North Division title and then again at Stanford a week later 27-24 in the Pac 12 Championship game. The only losses came at Washington 17-13 and Notre Dame 20-13 in overtime. Stanford has home wins over San Jose St 20-17, Duke 50-13, USC 21-14, Arizona 54-48 in triple overtime, Washington St 24-17, and Oregon St 27-23, along with road wins at Cal 21-3, Colorado 48-0, and Oregon. The Cardinal have won 7 straight games. Stanford is 8-5 ATS and the total is 5-8 this season.
Stanford is averaging 376.5 yards per game, including 203.5 passing yards and 173.1 rushing yards. The Cardinal are outscoring opponents 29-18 this season. Stanford is +8 in turnovers with 18 giveaways, and has allowed 19 sacks. The Cardinal average 51 penalty yards per game. The Cardinal are 79/199 on third and fourth down conversions, and 41/48 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns. On defense, Stanford is giving up 339 yards per game including 251 passing yards, and 88 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #3 against the run nationally, but #86 against the pass. Stanford is in the top 21 nationally in scoring and total defense. Stanford has forced 56 sacks and 26 turnovers. Stanford opponents are 81/240 on third and fourth down conversions, and 31/39 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. The Cardinal have 7 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
Quarterback Josh Nunes started the season but was largely ineffective. He was yanked in the Colorado game and replaced by Keith Hogan, who has started the last four games. Nunes has completed 124/235 passes (52.8%) for 1,643 yards with 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 24 carries, 77 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked 8 times. Hogan is 97/133 passing (72.9%) for 973 yards with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 48 carries, 209 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has been sacked 11 times this season.
Running back Stepfan Taylor has 302 carries, 1,442 yards, and 12 touchdowns along with 38 catches, 270 yards and 2 touchdowns. Anthony Wilkerson has 45 carries, 193 yards and a touchdown. No other Cardinal rusher has more than 33 carries, and those are by Hogan.
Tight end Zach Ertz has 66 catches, 837 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Drew Terrell has 31 catches, 443 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has a punt return for a touchdown. Levine Toilolo has 24 catches, 393 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ty Montgomery has 23 catches for 187 yards. Jamal-Rashad Patterson has only 15 catches but has two touchdowns.
Wisconsin is 13-5 ATS after a cover, 5-2 after gaining more than 450 yards, 4-9 after a straight up win, 2-9 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 1-6 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 0-6 after scoring more than 40 points, 0-5 in non-conference games, and 0-4 after passing for less than 170 yards.
Stanford is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games, 5-1 after passing for less than 170 yards, 4-1 after failing to cover, and against teams with winning records, 19-6-1 on grass, 38-13-1 after allowing more than 450 yards, 36-16-1 after a straight up win, and 38-17-1 overall.
This should be a low scoring game between two of the best defenses in the country. Each team features one of the best running backs in the country with Wisconsin’s Ball and Stanford’s Taylor. Each team struggled on offense early in the season before changing quarterbacks. I think Stanford is just too hot right and they pull out a close game.
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