Post-Draft Thoughts

People will look at the draft from a thousand different ways over the next couple of days. I will certainly resist the temptation to deliver meaningless draft grades, but there are a few things worth mentioning from a betting perspective about this draft:

  • First, let me whine for a bit. My football fan rules are very simple – I am fiercely and blindly loyal to Michigan, and I hate anything to do with anyone named Manning. You can imagine my joy, then, that Mario Manningham went to the Giants and Mike Hart is a Colt. I’m not sure what I did to deserve that.
  • I hope people keep saying lots of nice things about Kansas City. They had a great draft, and they improved significantly, but they are still going to be pretty lousy this year. The more nice things that are written about them the more the public will  like them and the harder it will be for them to cover spreads. Most significantly, this draft tells us that Brodie Croyle is still seen as the best option. Ouch. I love overly enthusiastic support of NFL teams.
  • It’s pretty obvious what the Patriots are blaming for their late-season comparative weakness – the defense. They picked three outside linebackers and two corners. It makes sense – the average age of their linebacking core is about 142. It’s also pretty bad news for the other teams out there – the Pats are very good at continuing to fill their gaps and stay competitive.
  • I’m probably going to live to regret this, but at this point the Bills are going to be a team I expect to rise this year. They had a very strong draft – the first corner off the board, the big, impressive receiver they need with a great value pick in the second round, and a ton of bodies to fill needs. On top of it all they are like a new team because they get back the ridiculous number of players that were hurt last year. They won’t win their division, but they will be in the wild card hunt.
  • I guess the Jets believe in Kellen Clemens. The only quarterback they picked was Erik Ainge, and he’s a third stringer if he’s lucky. I didn’t see anything at the end of last year to make me that that was a good idea.
  • Proof that the draft can be cruel – despite what seems like a ton of picks, lots of good players go undrafted. Prime example – Adarius Bowman was a beast of a receiver at Oklahoma State with 20 touchdowns in 24 games, and he was athletic enough to play basketball  for the Cowboys as well, but he went unpicked. He had a problem with the cops and pot a couple of times, but bigger things haven’t scared teams off of other players.
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