Pac 12 Betting Picks: #21 Oregon Ducks at Southern California Trojans

#21 Oregon Ducks at Southern California Trojans
Thursday, January 17, 2013, 11:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Galen Center – Los Angeles, California
Opening Line: Oregon -2 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -4
Opening Total: 130
Current Total: 134
Opening Money Line: Oregon -160 / USC +140
Current Money Line: Oregon -175 / USC +155

Oregon is a 4 point favorite on the road at USC Thursday night.

Oregon is a 4 point favorite on the road at USC Thursday night.

The #21 Oregon Ducks are 14-2 overall and 3-0 in the Pac 12. The Ducks are a half game behind UCLA and Washington for the Pac 12 lead. The Ducks go on the road Thursday night to face the 7-10 USC Trojans Thursday night who are 2-2 in the Pac 12. USC leads the series 60-49 against Oregon, but the Ducks have won 5 straight games in the series, including 65-62 in Eugene in the only meeting last year between the teams last season.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses Cincinnati in a tournament in Las Vegas an at UTEP in triple overtime. Oregon has key wins over Vanderbilt, at UNLV, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon St, Arizona, and Arizona St Sunday 68-65 in Eugene. Oregon has won 5 straight games. The Ducks are 12-0 at home this season, and have won 16 straight at home dating back to last year. Oregon is 8-6 ATS and the total is 2-6 this season.

Earlier this week USC fired coach Kevin O’Neill. Bob Cantu is the interim coach. The Trojans have key wins over Long Beach St, Texas in the Maui Invitational, Dayton, Stanford, and at Utah Saturday 76-59. Southern Cal has losses to Illinois and Marquette in Maui, at home against San Diego St, Minnesota, UC-Irvine, and California, along with road losses at Nebraska, New Mexico, Georgia, and Colorado. The Trojans are 6-9-1 ATS and the total is 8-4 this season.

Oregon is outscoring teams 76-61 this season. Oregon is #36 in scoring nationally. The Ducks are shooting 46.4% from the field and 33.7% from 3 point range. Oregon is #27 in free throw shooting making 74.6% of their free throws. The Ducks are #28 in rebounding with 39.8 per game. Oregon is 27th in rebounds allowed, with 27.2 per game. Duck opponents are shooting 39.3% from the field and 31.4% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 14 assists, 9 steals, 4 blocks and 15 turnovers.

Oregon guard Damyean Dotson averages 11.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.1 assists. Center Tony Woods averages 10.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. Forward Carlos Emory averages 10.5 points and 4.5 rebounds. Guard Dominic Artis averages 10.1 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2 steals per game. Forward E.J. Singler averages 10.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals a game. Forward Arsalan Kazemi averages 8.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 2.4 steals per game. Waverly Austin, Ben Carter and and Johnathan Loyd make up the rest of the rotation.

USC is being outscored 64.1-63.8 this season. The Trojans are shooting 42.5% from the field and 33.3% from 3 point range. USC makes 66.8% of their free throws. The Trojans average 34.9 rebounds per game, and they give up 31 per game. USC opponents are shooting 40.9% from the field and 36.9% from 3 point range. The Trojans average 13 assists, 6 steals, 5 blocks, and 13 turnovers a game.

Forward Eric Wise averages 11.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1 steal a game. Guard J.T. Terrell averages 9.3 points, and 1.9 rebounds per game. Guard Byron Wesley averages 9.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game. Guard Jio Fontan averages 8.6 points, 5.2 assists. and 1.5 rebounds per game. Center Omar Oraby averages 7.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game. Forward Dewayne Dedmon averages 6.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2 blocks and a steal per game. Aaron Fuller and Chass Bryan also get significant minutes. Forward Ari Stewart could be reinstated after missing the last 5 games due to a suspension for violating team rules. He is listed as probable.

Oregon is 10-1 ATS in road games, 8-1 against teams with winning home records, 16-5 after a straight up win, 6-2 after failing to cover, 20-7 overall, and against Pac 12 teams, and 8-3 in Thursday games. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS against teh Trojans recently, and 9-3 in their last trips to USC. The road team is 20-7 in this series recently.

USC is 9-24-1 ATS overall, 6-16 in Pac 12 games, 7-19-1 against teams with winning records, 2-6 in Thursday games, 6-21 at home, 1-4 after a straight up win, 1-10 after a cover, and 0-4 at home against teams with winning road records. The over is 12-4 in this series recently. The underdog has covered the last 5 meetings in the series.

It will be interesting to see how USC reacts in the first game under Cantu. The Trojans have been inconsistent at best with a very tough schedule. They won’t be intimidated by a very good Oregon team, but I still like the Ducks to win a close game on the road.

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