NFL Week 4 Picks: New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 9/30/12, 4:25 PM EST, TV:  FOX
Opening Point Spread:  Green Bay -7.5
Current Betting Line:  Green Bay -7.5
Opening Total:  54
Current Total:  53
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

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The Green Bay Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

New Orleans has lost its first three games of the 2012 season, which includes a 27-24 setback to the Kansas City Chiefs as nine-point home favorites last week.  The Saints were out-gained by a sizable 222-yard margin in that contest, but the game did manage to slip UNDER the posted total of 51.5.  “We’re definitely struggling a little bit,” stated Saints guard Jahri Evans.  Offensively, the team has failed to run the football, averaging 92.7 rushing yards per game.  New Orleans is 1-3 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite the last two-plus seasons.

The Saints are 7-15 all-time against the Packers, as these two NFC squads face off fro the fifth time in the last eight seasons.  New Orleans suffered a 42-34 loss in this series a year ago as 4.5-point road underdogs, while the OVER has cashed in the last six meetings.  The two sides have combined to score a total of 272 points in the last four games against each other, which comes out to an average of 68 points per game.

Green Bay must refocus quickly after dropping a controversial 14-12 contest to the Seattle Seahawks as three-point road favorites on Monday Night Football, which ultimately led to the end of replacement referees.  “We need to stay focused,” stated Packers head coach Mike McCarthy.  There’s no doubt that this game is important the Packers, considering this is the lone home contest for the club over a five-week stretch from Week 3 to 7.  Green Bay is 12-6 ATS as a home favorite over the last two-plus seasons, which includes covers in eight of 11 when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

The Packers have won 20 of their last 22 regular-season games at Lambeau Field, while averaging 31.9 points per game at home since 2009, which is the best mark in the league in that span.  On the other side of the field, Green Bay has limited opponents to 125.3 passing yards per game, which leads all of football.  It marks the first time this franchise has led in that category at any point of the season since 2005.

Sports bettors will likely back the Packers due to their 7-1 ATS record at home against losing teams, while the road team is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.

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