NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: San Diego Chargers at New York Jets

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets
Sunday, December 23, 2012, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, New Jersey
Opening Line: New York -2 1/2
Current Line: New York -1 (-130)
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 37 1/2
Opening Money Line: Jets -140 / Chargers +120
Current Money Line: Jets -140 / Chargers +120

Pro Bowl Betting Preview

San Diego travels to the New York Jets Sunday in a battle of teams eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets are a slight favorite at home.

At the beginning of the season many though the San Diego Chargers and New York Jets would be playoff contenders. Well it hasn’t exactly worked out that way. The 5-9 Chargers travel to the 6-8 Jets Sunday. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. New York has beaten San Diego 5 of the last 7 times they have played, including a 27-21 win last year at home. The Chargers haven’t beaten the Jets since 2009.

San Diego is coached by Norv Turner, who will likely be fired at the end of the season. The Chargers have lost 5 of their last 6 games, including a 31-7 trouncing by the Carolina Panthers last week in San Diego. The Chargers are 6-8 ATS and the total is 8-6 this season.

New York is coached by Rex Ryan, who could also lose his job at the end of the season. The Jets had a shot at making the playoffs until their ugly turnover filled loss at the Tennessee Titans 14-10 Monday night. New York had 5 turnovers in the loss including 4 interceptions from quarterback Mark Sanchez. The Jets actually had 2 possessions inside the Titans’ 25 in the last two minutes of the game but both ended up in Jets’ turnovers. New York is 7-7 ATS this season and the total is 6-8.

San Diego is averaging 308.8 yards per game on offense, including 215.6 passing and 93.1 rushing yards. The Chargers are being outscored 22.3-21.4 this season. San Diego is 21st or worse in all offensive categories. The Chargers are -1 in turnovers this season. San Diego has forced 27 sacks and allowed 43 this season. The Chargers are 82/203 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, San Diego is allowing 338.1 yards per games including 241.1 passing yards and 97.1 rushing yards. The Chargers are #13 in total defense and #7 in rush defense. San Diego has 7 defensive touchdowns this season.

San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers has completed 64.3% of his passes for 3,290 yards with 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions, along with 39 rushing yards. He has been sacked 43 times this season. Leading rusher Ryan Mathews is out for the season with a collarbone injury. He had 700 rushing yards and a touchdown along with 39 catches for 254 yards. Jackie Battle has 57 carries, 225 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with a touchdown catch. Ronnie Brown has 36 carries for 169 yards, along with 46 catches for 360 yards. He is probable with a hamstring injury. Curtis Brinkley and Le’Ron McClain will also get a few carries.

Four Charger receivers are out for the season including leading receiver Malcolm Floyd who is out with an ankle injury. Floyd had 56 catches, 814 yards and 5 touchdowns. Danario Alexander has 33 catches, 555 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end Antonio Gates has 45 catches, 479 yards and 5 touchdowns. Robert Meachum, Eddie royal, and tight end Dante Rosario will also get some catches. Meachum has 2 touchdown catches and Rosario has 3. Royal is probable with a hamstring injury. The Chargers have 22 other players listed on the injury report including 9 defensive players and 5 offensive linemen.

New York is averaging 302.1 yards per game on offense, including 181.1 passing yards and 121 rushing yards. The Jets are 30th in total offense and in passing and 10th in rushing. New York is being outscored 23-18 this season. The Jets are 28th in points scored. The Jets are -11 in turnovers. New York has forced 26 sacks and allowed 35 this season. The Jets are 78/202 on third and fourth down conversions. On defense, New York is allowing 329.6 yards per game, including 191.1 passing yards and 138.6 rushing yards. The Jets are #8 in total defense, #2 against the pass, #29 against the rush, and #20 in points allowed. New York has 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez has completed 54.8% of his passes for 2,678 yards with 13 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He has been sacked 33 times this season. He was benched last week against the Cardinals three weeks ago after throwing 3 interceptions. Third string quarterback Greg McIlroy came in and threw the game winning touchdown pass. Ryan benched Sanchez this week after the Tennessee debacle. McIlroy was named the starter. There is also some guy named Tim Tebow in the mix. Tebow has only thrown 8 passes this season, but he does have 102 rushing yards. The Jets said this week that they are open to trading Sanchez in the offseason, and that they will cut ties with Tebow either by trading or releasing him.

Running back Shonn Greene has 243 carries, 951 yards and 6 touchdowns along with 15 catches for 106 yards. Bilal Powell has 94 carries, 384 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 91 yards. Powell is probable with a shoulder injury. Joe McKnight has 170 rushing yards but is more dangerous as a kick returner. He averages 28 yards per return with a touchdown. McKnight is probable with an ankle injury.

The Jets’ receiving corps has been decimated by injury. Receiver Santonio Holmes and tight end Dustin Keller are both out for the season. Jeremy Kerley has 53 carries, 739 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kerley also has a punt return for a touchdown.  Stephen Hill has 21 catches, 252 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is out for the season with a knee injury. Tight end Jeff Cumberland has 26 catches, 323 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is probable with an ankle injury. Chaz Schilens has 26 catches, 258 yards and 2 touchdowns. Clyde Gates is out with a concussion. Green is the only receiver with more than 13 catches who isn’t battling some sort of injury. Newly acquired Braylon Edwards is questionable with a hamstring, and rookie Marty Gilyard is also questionable with an illness.  No other receiver has more than 10 catches. An incredible 28 Jets players are listed on the injury report including 13 defensive players. Kicker Nick Folk is probable with a back injury. The Jets haven’t signed another kicker if he can’t go, so punter Robert Malone will likely handle place kicking duties in an emergency.

San Diego is 7-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points, 5-1 after a double digit home loss, 16-5 after passing for less than 150 yards, 10-4 against AFC teams, 7-3 after failing to cover, 3-7 overall, 2-6-1 after allowing 30 points or more, 1-4 against teams with losing records, and after allowing 150 rushing yards or more, and 0-5 on fieldturf. Five of the last seven games in this series have gone over the total. The underdog has covered 4 of the last 5 in this series.

New York is 5-1 ATS after passing for less than 150 yards, 4-1 when playing on Sunday after a Monday night game, and after scoring less than 15 points, 5-2 after failing to cover, 2-5 against teams with losing records, and overall, 1-4 in December, and 0-4 on fieldturf. The Jets have covered 6 of the last 7 against the Chargers.

Who do you trust in this game? The lousy team prone to mistakes traveling cross country to play a 10:00 am Pacific game who might have quit on their lame duck coach or the lousy team prone to mistakes starting a third string quarterback drafted in the seventh round who might have quit on their lame duck coach? Well, your guess is as good as mine. I do like the under in this game because both offenses are terrible and battling injuries at receiver and running back.

Our expert NFL picks will help you crush the books this season. We remain red hot as the playoffs approach.

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