NFL Week 11 Picks: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 11/18/12, 1:00 PM EST, TV:  FOX
Opening Point Spread:  Green Bay -3
Current Betting Line:  Green Bay -3
Opening Total:  51
Current Total:  52
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

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Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has tremendous numbers when playing indoors

Green Bay has won four games in a row, including a 31-17 victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 10.5-point home favorites two weeks ago, while going OVER the total for the fifth time in six contests.  The Packers have won 12 of their last 16 games immediately following the bye week, including five wins in six tries under head coach Mike McCarthy.  It’s also important to note that McCarthy has compiled a dominating 11-1 record against Sunday’s opponent, which is a major angle to handicap when making your NFL picks against the spread in Week 11.

The Packers are also 17-7 in dome stadiums since the 2006 campaign, as they’ve averaged 30.7 points per game in that situation, which is higher than their 26.0 mark when playing outdoors.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a 117.0 passer rating in 19 career starts in domes, which ranks first in NFL history for any player with at least 200 passing attempts.  The franchise enters this important contest with an eight-game win streak versus NFC North opponents.

Detroit enters with a 4-5 overall mark and 0-3 record inside the division, as it looks to bounce back from a 34-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings as three-point road favorites.  The Lions lost the statistical battle for the first time in a seven-game span, which included a 136-yard disparity on the ground.  “Desperate is not a very good word to use,” commented Lions head coach Jim Schwartz.  “We’ve got some home games we need to take advantage of.”  Detroit is 12-7 ATS at home over the last two-plus seasons, which is important to remember when looking at the pro football odds page.

The Lions rank 10th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 329.7 yards per game, but they will be tested against an offense that racked up 550 yards in their last meeting during the 2011 regular season.  On the other side of the ball, Detroit leads all teams in averaging 307.3 passing yards per game, with wide receiver Calvin Johnson starting to play his best football.

Sports bettors will likely back the Packers due to their 5-1 ATS mark in the Motor City, while the Lions are 1-6 ATS versus divisional foes.

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Posted by on Nov 16 2012. Filed under Headlines, NFL. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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