NFL Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers
Monday, November 13, 2017, 8:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina
Opening Line: Carolina -10
Current Line: Carolina -9
Opening Total: 39 1/2
Current Total: 38 1/2
Opening Money Line: Panthers -475 / Dolphins +380
Current Money Line: Panthers -450 / Dolphins +350

The Panthers could be without Cam Newton as they host the Dolphins Monday Night.

The 6-3 Carolina Panthers host the 4-4 Miami Dolphins Monday night. The Panthers are a game behind the 7-2 New Orleans Saints in the NFC South. Miami is in third place in the AFC East, behind the 6-2 New England Patriots. Miami leads the series 4-1 against Carolina. The Panthers got their only win in the series 20-16 in Miami in 2013.

Miami is coached by Adam Gase.  Miami has road losses at the New York Jets 20-6 and Baltimore Ravens 40-0, a loss to the New Orleans Saints 20-0 in London, plus a home loss to the Oakland Raiders 27-24 last week. The opening game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was postponed to week eleven because of a hurricane. Miami has road wins over the Los Angeles Chargers 19-17 and Atlanta Falcons 20-17, plus home wins over the Tennessee Titans 16-10 and Jets 31-28.  Miami was a three point favorite against Oakland and the total was 44.5. Miami is 3-3-2 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season.

Carolina is coached by Ron Rivera. The Panthers have  home losses to the New Orleans Saints 34-13 and Philadelphia Eagles 28-23, plus a road loss to the Chicago Bears 17-3. Carolina has home wins over the Buffalo Bills 9-3 and Atlanta Falcons 20-17 last week, plus road wins over the San Francisco 49ers 23-3, New England Patriots 33-30, Detroit Lions 27-24 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17-3.  Carolina was a 3 point underdog against Atlanta  and the total was 42. The Panthers are 5-4 ATS and the total is 4-5 this season.

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Miami is being outscored 22-15 this season. Miami is last in scoring. The Dolphins average 270 yards per game on offense including 193 passing and 78 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #29 or worse in all three categories.  On defense, Miami is allowing 315 yards per game including 221 passing and 94 rushing yards. The Dolphins are #9 in total defense and #7 against the run. Miami is 33/111 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 36/100. The Dolphins have forced 16 sacks and allowed 17 this season. Miami is -3 in turnovers this season and has allowed 3 defensive touchdowns.

Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Dolphins signed the retired Jay Cutler after the injury in the pre-season. He is probable with a rib injury. Cutler has completed 66.2% of his passes for 1,306 yards with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and also has 8 carries for 20 yards. He has been sacked 13 times. Matt Moore replaced Cutler for one game. He has thrown for 364 yards with 2 touchdowns and three interceptions. He is probable with a back injury.

Running back Jay Ajayi was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles for draft picks. He had 138 carries for 465 yards, plus 14 catches for 67 yards. Kenyan Drake has 19 carries for 94 yards, plus 9 catches for 42 yards. Damien Williams has 19 carries for 46 yards, plus 14 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. He is probable with an illness.  The Dolphins do not have rushing touchdown this season.

Receiver Jarvis Landry has 56 catches for 430 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kenny Stills has 28 catches for 341 yards and 4 touchdowns. DeVante Parker has 24 catches for 312 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Julius Thomas has 23 catches for 252 yards and a touchdown. Eight defensive  players and four offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

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Carolina is outscoring teams 19-18 this season. The Panthers are #3 in points allowed. Carolina averages 313 yards per game on offense including 204 passing and 109 rushing yards. On defense, Carolina allows 274 yards per game including 196 passing and 78 rushing yards per game. The Panthers are #5 or better in all three categories. Carolina is 58/68 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 41/126. The Panthers have forced 29 sacks and allowed 23 this season. Carolina is -8 in turnovers and has allowed 2 defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Cam Newton has completed 62.4% of his passes for 1,978 yards with 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, plus 69 carries for 341 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. He has been sacked 23 times. Newton is questionable with a shoulder injury. Derek Anderson will start if Newton can’t go.

Running back Jonathan Stewart has 121 carries for 350 yards and a touchdown, plus 6 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown.  Christian McCaffrey has 64 carries for 183 yards and a touchdown, plus 54 catches for 406 yards and 2 touchdowns. Fozzy Whitaker will also get a few carries and also has a touchdown catch. He is questionable with an ankle injury.

Receiver Kelvin Benjamin has 32 catches for 475 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He was traded to the Buffalo Bills for draft picks. Devin Funchess has 38 catches for 443 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Ed Dickson has 22 catches for 349 yards. Russell Shepard has 11 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Greg Olson is out until at least week 12 with a foot injury. Eight defensive players and three offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

Miami is 2-0-2 ATS after gaining more than 350 yards and on grass, 4-1 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, 3-1-1 in November, 8-3-2 after allowing 350 yards or more, 8-18-1 after failing to cover, 6-20 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, and 0-7 in Monday games. The Dolphins have covered every game in this series.

Carolina is 4-0 ATS after passing for less than 150 yards, 6-2-1 in November, 12-4-1 after allowing more than 250 passing yards, 3-7-1 after a cover, 2-5 in week 10, 5-13-1 after allowing more than 350 yards, and 1-4 at home. The under is 4-1 in this series all time.

Carolina has a top five defense, and Miami has probably the worst offense in the league. Carolina isn’t exactly and offensive juggernaut themselves, and could struggle if Newton can’t go Monday night. I like the Panthers to win a  and cover in a low scoring game.

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