NFL AFC West Betting: Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
O.co Coliseum – Oakland, California
Sunday, December 15, 2013, 4:05 pm Eastern, TV: CBS, NFL Sunday Ticket
Opening Line: Kansas City -3 1/2
Current Line: Kansas City -5
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 43
Opening Money Line: Chiefs -205 / Raiders +175
Current Money Line: Chiefs -220 / Raiders +190
The 10-3 Kansas City Chiefs can clinch a playoff spot with a win Sunday at the rival Oakland Raiders. A win would also tie the Chiefs with the Denver Broncos atop the AFC West Division, but the Broncos have beaten the Chiefs twice and hold the tiebreaker. KC will also clinch a playoff spot with a loss by either the Baltimore Ravens or Miami Dolphins. The Oakland Raiders are 4-9 and barely alive for a playoff spot. However, They are battling nine other teams for one spot. Oakland will be eliminated with one more loss or another AFC team getting to 8 wins, which the Ravens and Dolphins can do with wins this week.
Since 2001, Kansas City leads the series 14-11 against Oakland. The Chiefs won in Kansas City October 13 of this season to snap a three game losing streak to the Raiders. That game was part of a 9-0 start for the Chiefs in 2013. The game was tied at 7 at halftime, but the Chiefs scored 17 unanswered points to win 24-7. The Chiefs only had 216 total yards in that game. KC won mainly due to 3 turnovers and 11 penalties for 68 yards by the Raiders. The Chiefs had a 44 yard pick six late in the fourth to ice the game.
Kansas City is coached by Andy Reid. The Chiefs have a road loss at the Broncos 27-17, and home losses to the San Diego Chargers 41-38 and to the Broncos 35-28. KC has home wins over the Dallas Cowboys 17-16, New York Giants 31-7, Raiders 24-7, Houston Texans 17-16, and Cleveland Browns 23-17, along with road wins at the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-2, Philadelphia 26-16, Tennessee Titans 26-17, Buffalo Bills 23-13, and last week at the Washington Redskins 45-10. The win against the Redskins snapped a 3 game losing streak for the Chiefs. Kansas City is 7-6 ATS and the total is 5-8 this season. The Chiefs were 3.5 point favorites on the road at the Redskins and the total was 44.
Kansas City jumped out to a 31-0 lead against Washington in the second quarter. The Chiefs would lead 38-10 at halftime, including a 95 yard kickoff return on which the Redskins barely made an effort to tackle Quintin Demps. Kansas City added another touchdown early in the fourth quarter to make the final 45-10. The Chiefs had 346 total yards including 192 rushing yards. The Redskins had 257 total yards including 192 passing yards. Washington had two turnovers and Kansas City had one.
Kansas City is outscoring teams 26-17 this season. The Chiefs are #4 in points allowed and are #7 in scoring. KC averages 337.9 yards per game on offense including 208.7 passing and 129.2 rushing yards. The Chiefs are #9 in rushing and #24 in passing. On defense, the Chiefs are allowing 357.8 yards per game including 244.6 passing and 113.2 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are 17th or worse in all three categories. Kansas City is +15 in turnovers. The Chiefs are 65/190 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 61/195. Kansas City has forced 43 sacks and allowed 32 this season. The Chiefs are averaging 31:57 on time of possession. Kansas City is averaging 47 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 55. The Chiefs have 11 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
Quarterback Alex Smith has completed 59.8% of his passes for 2,873 with 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 66 carries for 367 yards and a touchdown. Chase Daniel is his back-up, but Smith has taken almost every snap. Running back Jamaal Charles has 238 carries for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 57 catches for 460 yards and 3 touchdowns. Knile Davis has 33 carries for 125 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 62 yards. Davis has a kickoff return for a touchdown.
Receiver Dwayne Bowe has 49 catches for 603 yards and 5 touchdowns. Donnie Avery has 35 catches, 531 yards and 2 touchdowns.Dexter McCluster has 46 catches for 438 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 punt returns for touchdowns. McCluster is doubtful with an ankle injury. Tight end Sean McGrath has 23 catches for 277 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Anthony Fasano has 22 catches, 181 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is out with a concussion. Anthony Sherman has 17 catches, 140 yards and a touchdown. Junior Hemingway only has 8 catches for 80 yards, but he does have two touchdowns.
Oakland is coached by Dennis Allen. The Raiders have home wins over the Jaguars 19-9, Chargers 27-17, and Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18, along with a road win over the Houston Texans 28-23. Oakland has road losses at the Indianapolis Colts 21-17, Broncos 37-21, Chiefs 24-7, New York Giants 24-20, Dallas Cowboys 31-24 and last week at the New York Jets 37-27. The Raiders have home losses to the the Washington Redskins 24-14, Philadelphia Eagles 49-20 and Tennessee Titans 23-19. Oakland has lost 5 of their last 6 games and 3 in a row. The Raiders are 7-5-1 ATS and the total is 6-6-1 this season. Oakland was a 3 point underdog at the New York Jets last week and the total was 39.
The Jets took an early 10-0 against the Raiders. New York would expand the lead to 20-3 in the second quarter, including a touchdown on a blocked punt late in the quarter. The raiders would close the gap to 30-17 by the end of the third quarter. Oakland would pull to within 10 points twice in the fourth, but could get no closer. The Jets hung on for the 37-27 win to snap a three game losing streak and stay alive in the playoff chase. New York had not scored more than 30 points an any game before the Oakland win. The Raiders had 383 total yards including 150 rushing yards. The Jets had 352 total yards including 143 passing yards. Each team had a turnover and 4 penalties.
Oakland is being outscored 26-20 this season. Oakland is #24 in points allowed and #26 in scoring. The Raiders are averaging 335.3 total yards on offense including 200.9 passing and 134.4 rushing yards. The Raiders are #27 in passing and #4 in rushing in the league. Oakland is #20 in total offense. On defense, the Raiders are allowing 356.4 yards per game including 250.2 passing and 106.2 rushing yards. Oakland is #18 in total defense and #12 against the run. Oakland is -3 in turnovers. The Raiders are 67/191 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 73/181. Oakland has forced 32 sacks and allowed 41. The Raiders have 5 defensive/special teams touchdowns and have allowed 5 as well. The Raiders average 57 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 40.
Quarterback Matt McGloin took over when Terrelle Pryor was injured last month. Pryor is healthy but McGloin will remain the starter. Pryor did come in for a drive last week against the jets and could see some snaps against the Chiefs. Pryor has completed 58.5% of his passes for 1,579 yards, with 5 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, along with 71 carries and 508 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has been sacked 29 times this season. McGloin has completed 57.1% of his passes for 1,044 yards with 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 22 rushing yards. He has been sacked 5 times this season.
Running back Rashad Jennings has 126 carries for 588 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 28 catches for 245 yards. Jennings is probable with a concussion. Darren McFadden has 103 carries, 365 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 13 catches for 85 yards. He has even thrown a touchdown pass. He is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. Fullback Marcel Reece has 41 carries for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 25 catches for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns. Little used running back Jeremy Stewart is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Receiver Rod Streater has 50 catches, 787 yards and 3 touchdowns. Denarius Moore has 37 catches, 569 yards and 5 touchdowns. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. Mychal Rivera has 31 catches, 311 yards and 3 touchdowns. Andre Holmes, Brice Butler and Jacoby Ford will also get some catches. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in road games, 5-2 against teams with losing home records, 2-5 overall, 1-5 in December, against AFC teams, against AFC West teams, and on grass, 1-6 after rushing for more than 150 yards, and 1-7 after allowing 15 points or less. The road team is 21-7-1 ATS in this series recently. The Chiefs have covered 8 of their last 10 trips to Oakland.
Oakland is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover, 3-0-1 in week 15, 6-1-1 after allowing 350 total yards or more, 5-1 after a straight up loss, 3-1-1 against AFC West teams, 7-3-1 against AFC teams, 3-7-1 in December, 1-3-1 against teams with winning records, 1-4-1 against teams with winning road records, and 1-6 after allowing more than 30 points. The under is 18-5 recently in the Raiders-Chiefs series, including 7-1 in Oakland. The Raiders have covered 5 of the last 7 against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs need to take care of business because they have at least a shot of winning the AFC West and a first round bye. They do need Denver and New England to lose at least one more game each and KC has to run the table. The Chiefs should be able to win on the road against a raider team that isn’t very good. This should be a low scoring game.