NCAA Tournament Picks ATS: #14 South Dakota vs. #3 Baylor#14 South Dakota State vs. #3 Baylor
Tip off: 7:25 PM EST
Spread: BAY -8
M/L: BAY -400, SDS +330
South Dakota State
Ah, the vaunted Summit League. Well, someone has to get in — and that someone is South Dakota State, with their unimpressive 27-7 record.
The Jackrabbits did not face a ranked opponent all season, and will face the sobering reality of facing a Baylor team that has consistently been ranked in the top 15 all season. Ostensibly, one would think that the Jackrabbits are a great scoring team. They put up 77.3 points per game. But then one must take into account the strength of their schedule and the fact that the figure is inflated from a string of games against poor opponents in which the Jackrabbits scored 90 or more for 5 of 6 games, with the exception being an 70 point outing against North Dakota (they lost to that powerhouse).
Nate Wolters does most of the damage for the Jackrabbits. The 6’4″ junior combo guard is putting up 21.3 points per game, while also recording 5.2 assists per game and 6.0 rebounds. He recorded five 30+ point games, all of which were Jackrabbits’ wins.
Jackrabbits Betting Trends:
South Dakota State is 18-7 ATS in their lat 25 games and the total has gone UNDER in 14 of the last 18. It has also gone UNDER in 9 of the last 11 games after allowing less than 60 points and they are 7-4 ATS when the total is set between 140 and 149.5. They are 8-3 ATS vs teams with winning records and are 35-27 ATS since 1997.
Baylor has turned it around in a big way following last year’s 18-13 campaign, which featured a first round loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament.
This year, their sites are set on much larger goals after finishing 27-7 this season with a 12-6 record in the Big 12. The blowout loss to Missouri in the Conference championship game put a damper on an otherwise bright regular season. Also, the Bears have now lost 2 of their last 4 games, though one of the two wins was a big upset over Kansas in the Big 12 semifinals.
All five Baylor starters reached double figures in that win, led by Perry Jones III’s 18 points, which he scored on 7 of 16 shooting from the floor. Jones leads the team in scoring with 14.0 points per game and is also the team leader in rebounding (7.7 per game). He’s expected to be a lottery pick in this June’s NBA Draft.
In addition to the strong play of Jones, Baylor also has Pierre Jackson, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller all averaging double figure scoring as well, as the Bears put up 75 points per game (38th best in the nation), mainly due to the fact that they convert 47% of their field goals.
Bears Betting Trends:
The Bears are 12-14 ATS their last 26 ages and 7-10 ATS their last 17 games as a favorite. They are 5-8 ATS when the total is set between 140 and 149.5 and they are 4-2 ATS in non-conference games.