NCAA Football Betting Picks Week 3: Colorado Buffaloes vs. Fresno State BulldogsColorado vs. Fresno State
Time: 8 PM EST, Saturday, Sept 15
Spread: FRE -15.5
M/L: FRE -650, COL +525
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
From my season preview for Colorado:
Youth can be looked at one of two ways: It gives hope for the future, but the inexperience leads to disappointment in the present. Considering both of these statements are true, the Buffaloes have little hope of doing well this year, but are hoping their freshman gain valuable experience and give them something to build on moving forward. At 200/1 odds to win the Pac 12, I think you see why Athlon predicted they go 0-9. No one has set the bar high for the Buffaloes.
So far, the Buffaloes have been no surprise, other than that they have managed to stay in the game in their two losses. They lost week one by five points to Colorado State and dropped to Sacramento State by two last week, and they rank near the bottom of the nation in both passing yards (187.5 per game) and rushing yards (105.5 per game).
Again, this was predicted in the season preview:
It’s the passing game that will be a problem for Webb, because they lost Paul Richardson to a knee injury in spring due to a knee injury. He was impressive last year against Cal when he caught 11 catches for 284 yards, but the Buffaloes still lost that game. WR, TE, RB all provide opportunities for true freshman to start, with little returning depth at the positions.
If not for his lack of options, Jordan Webb’s 52.3% pass completion ratio could be much higher. He’s thrown for only 347 yards in the two games, but has yet to throw an interception. Still, last year, Webb had a 63.7% completion ratio. The downside last year was his 31 sacks. Now a junior, Webb is going to try to do something very difficult to do: improve his stats with a continually declining supporting squad.
This game will offer a look at how difficult that can be, as the Buffaloes are 15.5 point underdogs according to college football oddsmakers.
Fresno State kicked off the season right with a win over Weber State, 37-10. They came back down to Earth, however, in their 42-25 loss to then-No. 4 Oregon last week.
QB Derek Carr, younger brother of former Bulldogs QB David Carr, threw for 234 yards on 29 passes completed (of 47). Carr had an outstanding 2011 campaign, throwing for 3,544 yards with 26 TDs. HIs QB rating is nearly identical to last season, 143.9 this year, compared to 144.5 a year ago, and his 532 yards per game so far indicate he is on his way to having another great year for a Bulldogs team that may shock a lot of fans.
Fresno State is expected to go 7-5 by Athlon magazine, with a 6-2 record in their new conference. Last year, they played in the WAC, and compiled a 3-4 conference record.
Carr and tailback Robbie Rouse are two of the best players in the Mountain West Conference now and the offense will keep the Bulldogs competitive. The players are all adapting to a new system, and if the defense improves in line with the offense, this team could be dangerous. Will it be enough to beat Boise State in the MWC? Doubtful. But in two to three seasons time, it could be Fresno State that is the toast of their new conference.
Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs MWC. 9-26 ATS in their last 35 road games, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 overall, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 450+ total yards.
Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on turf. 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 after allowing less than 170 passing yards in the previous game. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs the Pac-12.
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