2016 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Quarterfinals Game #4
#3 Oklahoma City Thunder at #6 Dallas Mavericks
Thunder Lead Best of Seven Series 2-1
Saturday, April 23, 2016, 8:05 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Opening Line: Oklahoma City -10
Current Line: Oklahoma City -8 1/2
Opening Total: 201 1/2
Current Total: 202 1/2
Opening Money Line: Thunder -600 / Mavericks +450
Current Money Line: Thunder -470 / Mavericks +375
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both had terrible games in game two of the Western Conference quarterfinals as they were upset 85-84 by the short handed Dallas Mavericks. The series switched to Dallas for game three with the series tied 1-1. The Thunder dominated in a 131-102 rout to regain home court. Couple that with a 108-70 win in game one, the game two performance is even more puzzling for the Thunder. Game four is Saturday night.
Oklahoma City is coached by Billy Donovan. Oklahoma City is 55-27 and won the Northwest Division by 11 games over the Portland Trail Blazers and were the #3 seed in the West. OKC is 39-45-3 ATS and the total is 40-45 this season.
Dallas is coached by Rick Carlisle. Dallas went 42-40 and tied for second in the Southwest Division with the Memphis Grizzlies, but both teams were 25 games behind the San Antonio Spurs. The Mavericks won the tiebreaker over the Grizzlies for the #6 seed in the Western Conference. Dallas is 46-38-1 ATS and the total is 40-44-1 this season.
Oklahoma City was a 9.5 point favorite against Dallas in game three and the total 198.5. The Thunder took a 10 point lead into halftime, and dominated the second half 73-54 in the rout. After going 7/33 in game two, Durant scored 34 points and also added 7 rebounds and 3 assists. Westbrook scored 26 points and added 15 assists. Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters combined for 30 points off the bench. Four Dallas starters scored in double digits including 22 from Wesley Matthews.
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Oklahoma City is outscoring teams 110-103 this season. The Thunder are #2 in scoring in the league. OKC is shooting 47.6% from the field and 34.9% from three point range. The Thunder are #3 in field goal shooting. Oklahoma City makes 78.2% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 43.8% from the field and 34.2% from three point range. The Thunder are #8 or better in both categories. OKC averages 48.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 40.2 per game. The Thunder are #2 in rebounds allowed and #1 in rebounding. Oklahoma City averages 23 assists, 15.5 turnovers, 7.4 steals and 5.9 blocks per game.
Kevin Durant averages 28.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal and 1.2 blocks per game. Russell Westbrook averages 23.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 10.4 assists and 2 steals per game. He had 18 triple doubles this season to tie Magic Johnson in 1981-82 for the most in the last last 40 seasons. Center Enes Kanter averages 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Forward Serge Ibaka averages 12.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Dion Waiters averages 9.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal per game. Steven Adams, Randy Foye, Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Nick Collison, and Andre Roberson will also get minutes in the rotation. Nazr Mohammed is questionable. Forward Mitch McGary is questionable for personal reasons.
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Dallas is being outscored 102.6-102.2 this season. The Mavericks are shooting 44.4% from the field and 34.4% from three point range. Dallas is #20 or worse in both categories. The Mavericks make 79.4% of their free throws and are #3 in the league. Opponents are shooting 45.1% from the field and 34.2% from three point range. Dallas averages 43.1 rebounds per game and opponents average 45.8 per game. Dallas averages 22.1 assists, 12.3 turnovers, 6.8 steals and 3.7 blocks per game.
Forward Dirk Nowitzki averages 18.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. He is probable with a knee injury. Deron Williams averages 14.1 points, 2.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game. He is questionable with a hernia. Forward Chandler Parsons is out for the season with a knee injury. He averaged 13.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Wesley Matthews averages 12.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1 steal per game. J.J. Barea averages 10.9 points, 2.1 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He is probable with a groin injury. Raymond Felton, Zaza Pachulia, David Lee and Devin Harris will also get minutes in the rotation. Lee is questionable with a heel injury. Jeremy Evans is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
OKC is 9-2 ATS against teams with winning records, 4-1 after allowing 100 points or more, in first round games, in road games, against Western Conference teams, and overall, 23-8-2 in Saturday games, 5-2 after a straight up win of 10 points or more, and on one day rest, and 1-5 after scoring 125 points or more. The Thunder are 15-6-1 ATS in Dallas recently. The road team is 37-17-2 ATS in this series recently.
Dallas is 6-1 ATS after allowing 100 points or more, and after failing to cover, 5-1 after a straight up loss by 10 points or more, and after allowing 125 points or more, 4-1 after a double digit home loss, 5-2 after a straight up loss, 33-16-2 against Northwest teams, 3-8 at home, 2-7 in first round games, 1-4 against teams with winning records, and 0-6 against teams with winning road records. The over is 25-9-1 in this series recently. The underdog is 29-14-1 ATS in this series recently.
Despite the bad performance in game two, the Thunder are clearly the better team. This is looking like a gentleman’s sweep in five games. I see another dominating win by the Thunder.