NBA Playoffs Game Seven Betting Preview: #8 Dallas Mavericks at #1 San Antonio Spurs
2014 NBA Playoffs
Western Conference Quarterfinals – Game #7
#8 Dallas Mavericks at #1 San Antonio Spurs
Best of Seven Series Tied 3-3
AT&T Center – San Antonio, Texas
Sunday, May 4, 2014, 3:35 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: San Antonio -6 1/2
Current Line: San Antonio -6 1/2
Opening Total: 199 1/2
Current Total: 197 1/2
Opening Money Line: Spurs -300 / Mavericks +250
Current Money Line: Spurs -290 / Mavericks +240
For the first time in NBA history there were 5 game sevens in the first round of the playoffs. The last of those games tips off Sunday afternoon at the #1 seed San Antonio Spurs take on the #8 Dallas Mavericks in San Antonio in the Western Conference quarterfinals. The winner will face the #5 seed Portland Trail Blazers in the second round.
The Spurs won game one 90-85 in San Antonio. Dallas took game two 113-92 to snap a ten game losing streak to San Antonio. The Mavericks would win game three 109-108 on a Vince Carter buzzer beating three pointer. The Spurs would hold on for a 93-89 game four victory to even the series at two games apiece. San Antonio took a 3-2 series lead with a 109-103 win in game five in San Antonio. The Mavericks forced game seven with a 113-111 win Friday night in Dallas.
Dallas jumped out to a 34-26 lead in the first quarter of game six Friday night. The Mavericks would lead 58-52 at halftime. However, San Antonio would lead by five at the end of the third quarter. In the fourth, Dallas used a 14-2 run to take an 8 point lead with 2:59 left. The Spurs would pull to within 106-105 with 49 seconds left. Dallas Extended the lead to 111-105 with 20 seconds left. Danny Green hit a three for the Spurs to make it 111-108. After two Monta Ellis free throws, Spurs guard Patty Mills hit a three to pull the Spurs within 2 points with 7 seconds left. Ellis tried to dribble out the clock but turned the ball over with an ill-advised pass the length of the court that went out of bounds. The Spurs had 1.1 seconds left, but no time outs to advance the ball. Dallas knocked the inbounds pass out of bounds with 0.4 seconds left. San Antonio was unable to get a shot off in time, and Dallas held on for the two point win. The Spurs had been 25-0 on the road this season when leading after three quarters prior to Friday’s loss.
All five Spurs’ starters scored in double digits, led by Tony Parker with 22 points, 6 assists and 3 rebounds. Center Tiago Splitter scored 19 points and also had 8 rebounds. Green had 17 points. Tim Duncan had 16 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks. Ellis led the Mavericks with 29 points. Dirk Nowitzki had 22 points. Center DeJuan Blair had 10 points and 14 rebounds after missing game five due to a suspension. Blair played the first four years of his career in San Antonio and was on the Spurs’ team that lost in the Finals last year to the Miami Heat.
Dallas is coached by Rick Carlisle. The Mavericks are 50-38 ATS and the total is 49-39 this season. Dallas has covered all six games in the series so far.
Dallas is outscoring teams 105-102 this season. The Mavericks are #8 in scoring and #20 in points allowed. Dallas is shooting 47.4% from the field and 38.4% from 3 point range. The Mavericks are #4 in field goal shooting and #2 in 3 point shooting. Dallas is #3 in free throw shooting at 79.5% from the line. Opponents are shooting 46.4% from the field and 35.9% from 3 point range. Dallas averages 40.9 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.8 per game. The Mavericks are #26 in rebounds. Dallas averages 23.6 assists, 13.5 turnovers, 8.6 steals and 4.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 22 assists, 16 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 3.5 blocks per game.
Forward Dirk Nowitzki averages 21.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. The first-ballot Hall-of-Famer passed Oscar Robertson to become the 10th leading scorer in NBA history recently. Guard Monta Ellis averages 19 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Vince Carter averages 11.9 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. Guard Jose Calderon averages 11.4 points, 2.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game. He is probable with a nose injury. Forward Shawn Marion averages 10.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Brandan Wright, Devin Harris, Samuel Dalembert, DeJuan Blair and Jae Crowder will also get significant minutes.
San Antonio is coached by Gregg Popovich, who won his third NBA coach of the year award last week. San Antonio is 45-43 ATS and the total is 48-39-1 this season.
San Antonio is outscoring teams 105-97. The Spurs are #6 in scoring and #6 in points allowed. San Antonio is shooting 48.6% from the field and 39.7% from 3 point range. The Spurs are #2 in field goal percentage and #1 in 3 point shooting. San Antonio is #4 in free throw shooting at 78.5% from the line. Opponents are shooting 44.4% from the field and 35.3% from 3 point range. The Spurs are in the top 10 in both categories. San Antonio is averaging 43.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 42.2 per game. The Spurs average 25.2 assists, 14.6 turnovers, 7.5 steals and 5.2 blocks per game. Opponents average 20.3 assists, 14 turnovers, 7.8 steals and 4.7 blocks per game.
Point guard Tony Parker averages 16.7 points, 5.7 assists, and 2.3 rebounds per game. Parker is probable with the ankle injury. Forward Tim Duncan averages 15.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.9 blocks per game. Forward Kawhi Leonard averages 12.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Manu Ginobili averages 12.3 points, 3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1 steal per game. Guard Marco Belinelli averages 11.4 assists, 2.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. Guard Patty Mills averages 10.2 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Boris Diaw, Danny Green, Tiago Splitter, Cory Joseph, Jeff Ayres, and Matt Bonner will also get significant minutes.
Dallas is 7-0 ATS overall, against Western Conference teams, and against teams with winning records, 6-0 after a cover, 5-0 after scoring 100 points or more, 4-0 after the opponent allows 100 points or more, 7-1 ATS after the opponent scores 100 points or more, 5-1 after allowing 100 points or more, 4-1 after a straight up win, 20-6-2 in first round playoff games, 6-2 in Sunday games, 42-14 against teams with winning home records, 20-7 against Southwest Division teams, and 50-19 in road games. The road team is 9-4 ATS in this series recently. The underdog has covered the last 8 games in the series. The Mavericks have covered in the their last 4 trips to San Antonio.
San Antonio is 0-8 ATS overall, and against Western Conference teams, 0-7 after failing to cover, against teams with winning records, and against Southwest Division teams, 0-6 after allowing 100 points or more, in first round playoff games, after the opponent scores 100 points or more, and after the opponent allows 100 points or more, 0-4 after a straight up loss, at home, on one day rest and after scoring 100 points or more. The over is 4-1 in this series recently.
So far in three game sevens, the home team has won every game. In NBA history, only 23 road teams have ever won a game seven in 116 games. Although a #8 seed has won a series against a #1 seed a handful of times, #8 seeds have never won a game seven against a #1 seed. The Atlanta Hawks couldn’t get the job done yesterday against the Indiana Pacers. Dallas tries to become the first. The odds are certainly stacked against the Mavericks, but Dirk Nowitzki is 4-0 in his career in game sevens. I think the Spurs win a close game, but Dallas won’t roll over.