NBA Picks: San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors
Monday, April 15, 2013, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: NBA TV
Oracle Arena – Oakland, California
Opening Line: San Antonio -2
Current Line: Golden State -4
Opening Total: 201
Current Total: 199 1/2
Opening Money Line: Spurs -125 / Warriors +105
Current Money Line: Warriors -190 / Spurs +160
With teams having only one or two games left, the Western Conference playoff situation is still in flux. None of the 8 playoff positions are locked in yet. Oklahoma City and San Antonio will be the top 2 seeds in some order. Denver, the LA Clippers, and Memphis will be 3, 4, and 5 in some order. Houston, Golden State, the LA Lakers, and Utah will make up the bottom 3 seeds. So no match-up is official yet. The 58-22 San Antonio Spurs will travel to the 45-35 Golden State Warriors Monday night. As of right now, the two teams would meet in the first round of the playoffs.
The Spurs are a game behind Oklahoma City for the #1 seed, but the Thunder hold the tiebreaker. The Thunder host the Sacramento Kings Monday and will clinch home court advantage with a win or San Antonio loss. The Spurs have clinched the Southwest Division. San Antonio lost last night at the Lakers 91-86 Sunday night. The Lakers were playing without Kobe Bryant who tore his Achilles’ tendon in Friday’s 118-116 home win over the Warriors. Golden State is tied with Houston for the sixth seed but both teams are only a game and a half ahead of the Lakers.
San Antonio has lost 6 straight road games this season, and Golden State has lost 3 of 4 overall. The Spurs have beaten the Warriors 17 of the last 18 times they have played. The only win for Golden State in that time frame came February 22 when the Warriors won in overtime 107-101 in Oakland. The Spurs have two wins in San Antonio this season against Golden State, 95-88 January 18 and 104-93 March 20.
San Antonio is coached by Gregg Popovich. The Spurs are 39-39-2 ATS and the total is 34-44-2 this season. San Antonio is outscoring teams 103-96. The Spurs are #4 in scoring and #9 in points allowed. The Spurs are shooting 48.2% from the field and 37.6% from 3 point range. San Antonio is in the top 5 in the league in both categories. The Spurs are #3 in free throw shooting at 79% from the line. San Antonio averages 41.4 rebounds and give up 42.4 per game. Spurs’ opponents are shooting 44.1% from the field and 35% from 3 point range. San Antonio is in the top 10 in both categories. The Spurs average 25.1 assists, 8.5 steals, 5.5 blocks, and 14.1 turnovers.
Guard Tony Parker averages 20.4 points, 3 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game. Tim Duncan averages 17.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. Small forward Kawhi Leonard averages 12 points, 6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Manu Ginobli is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury. He averages 11.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Guard Danny Green averages 10.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Center Tiago Splitter averages 10.4 points and 6.4 rebounds. Gary Neal, DeJuan Blair, Patty Mills, and Matt Bonner make up the rest of the rotation. The Spurs released forward Stephen Jackson last week. Center Boris Diaw is out indefinitely with a back injury.
Golden State is coached by Mark Jackson. The Warriors are outscoring teams 101-100 this season. Golden State is #9 in scoring but #19 in points allowed. The Warriors are shooting 45.7% from the field and 40.2% from 3 point range. Golden State is #11 in field goal percentage and lead the league in 3 point shooting. The Warriors are #4 in free throw shooting at 79% from from the line. Golden State is #3 in rebounding at 44.8 per game, but #20 in rebounds allowed at 42.9 per game. Warrior opponents are shooting 43.8% from the field and 34.4% from 3 point range. Golden State is in the top 5 in both categories. The Warriors average 22.4 assists, 7 steals, 4.2 blocks, and 14.8 turnovers. Golden State is 40-39-1 ATS and the total is 46-33-1 this season.
Guard Stephen Curry averages 22.5 points, 4 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Power forward David Lee averages 18.5 points, 11 .3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. Guard Klay Thompson averages 16.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Point guard Jarrett Jack averages 13.1 points, 5.5 assists, and 3 rebounds per game. Forward Carl Landry averages 10.7 points and 5.9 rebounds per game. Forward Harrison Barnes averages 9.3 points, 4 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game. Center Andrew Bogut is questionable with an ankle injury. Bogut is averaging 5.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Guard Brandon Rush is out for the season with a knee injury.
San Antonio is 4-9-1 ATS against Pacific division teams, 5-17 when there opponent scores 100 points or more, 3-13 overall, 1-5 in road games, and against teams with winning home records, 1-8 against teams with winning records, 0-4 after failing to cover, against Western Conference teams, and after the opponent allowed 100 points or more. The Spurs are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 against Golden State, including 5-1-2 in Oakland. The under is 3-0-1 in this series overall, but the over is 3-1-1 in Oakland in the series.
Golden State is 7-0 ATS in Monday games, 6-0 after a straight up loss, 5-2 after allowing 100 points or more, 2-5 on two days rest, 3-8 after a cover, and after scoring 100 points or more, and 7-19 against teams with winning records. The favorite is 18-6-2 ATS in this series recently.
Although both teams have clinched playoff spots, this is a crucial game for seeding for both San Antonio and Golden State. Popovich was not happy with the effort of the Spurs last night in LA, a loss that might have cost them the #1 seed in the West. I like Golden State to win a close game.