NBA Picks ATS: Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

Aldridge made his first All-Star team this season
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Tip off: 9:05 PM EST
Spread: DEN -3
Total: 202
M/L: DEN -155, POR +135

Betting Odds from Bookmaker


I honestly do feel bad for Trail Blazers fans. Just three seasons ago, they were being talked about as contenders. Now they are 18-16 and no longer have two of the three players that were expected to be the cornerstones of a possibly dynasty.

I’m speaking of course of Greg Oden and Brandon Roy. Oden is having the third surgery in his knee in the last 2.5 years and Roy was forced into retirement due to having no meniscus in both of his knees. He’s attempting a comeback, but since the Blazers used their amnesty clause on Roy, they have no commitment to bring him back, and he could go anywhere.

It might be fitting for Roy to return to Portland, but if a team is pegging their hopes on a gimpy star to make a difference, it doesn’t speak much of their prospects, does it?

They just signed Joel Przybilla, who had the option of going elsewhere, so now they have two fully mediocre centers to play the five spot in Przybilla and Camby. In all seriousness, Camby is still relatively effective, but now averages less than four points per game. That just isn’t the kind of production that Oden would have offered. While Oden was no offensive stud, he shot a high percentage due to a lot of dunking and would have easily posted a double double every year had he been healthy.

It just has to sting quite a bit for Blazers fans, especially knowing that they could be watching Kevin Durant right now instead.

Trail Blazers Betting Trends:

The total has gone OVER In 8 of Portland’s last 11 games and it has gone UNDER in 14 of their last 21 on the road. The Blazers are 2-6 SU in their last 8 road games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 on the road. The total has gone OVER In 6 of the Blazers’ last 9 games against the Denver Nuggets and they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 against Denver. The Blazers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Nuggets and they are 0-5 ATS In their last 5 games on the road against Denver. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Blazers’ last 6 games on the road against Denver.


The Nuggets had lost 10 of their last 13 heading into the All-Star break and now sit only one game above .500 after such a promising start that had many talking about the Nuggets being the surprise team of the Western Conference.

Injuries are a big part of the reason why things have changed. Danilo Gallinari has been out, and Ty Lawson has missed time as well. Gallinari and Lawson are the best two players on the Nuggets, along with Nene, who, you guessed it, has also missed a lot of time.

It’s hard to be competitive when 3 of your 5 starters are out with injuries. All three are expected to be out again tonight, as well as key rotation guard Rudy Fernandez.

And yet the Nuggets are favored by three points?

I find that spread rather dubious and fully advocate a money line bet on the underdog Trail Blazers. I don’t think the Nuggets will have any answer for LaMarcus Aldridge.

Nuggets Betting Trends:

Denver is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Nuggets’ last 7 games at home. The Nuggets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games at home and they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Nuggets’ last 9 games against the Trailblazers and the Nuggets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 game vs. Portland. The total has gone UNDER In 4 of the Nuggets’ last 6 games at home against Portland and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home against the Blazers.

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