NBA Picks ATS: Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets

Andre Drummond-pistons-2013Detroit Pistons at Houston Rockets
Time: 8 PM, Mar 1, 2014
Spread: HOU -11
M/L: HOU -770; DET +535
Total: 215

Betting odds courtesy of 5dimes

The Houston Rockets are 39-19 and tied with the L.A. Clippers for the fourth best record in the West. The Rockets have won eight of its past 10 games and are 17-12 on the road. The Rockets will travel to face the 23-35 Detroit Pistons in a game NBA oddsmakers at 5dimes are favoring the Rockets by 11 points.

Houston ranks 3rd in the NBA in scoring (106.2 points per game), but the Rockets still have nearly a bottom-third defense, allowing 101.7 points per game. Dwight Howard is not quite the specimen he was when he won Defensive Player of the Year three times In Orlando. He blocks just 1.9 shots per game this season and in addition to that No. 12 scores 18.9 points and grabs 12.5 rebounds per game.

James Harden is averaging 24.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. The Rockets will need to re-sign Chandler Parsons this summer, and he’s averaging 16.7 points per game. The Rockets need another strong body inside and potentially another guard, but are on the brink of contention.

Detroit just has not panned out as expected. Despite adding high scoring guard Brandon Jennings and versatile combo forward Josh Smith, the Pistons have struggled badly this season and the defense in particular has been horrible (103.5 points per game surrendered, 26th in NBA).

On a positive for the Pistons, Andre Drummond has developed into a total monster, physically and statistically. He’s averaging 13.1 points, 12.8 rebounds and 1.83 blocks per game this season. Greg Monroe, once deemed a cornerstone, may be traded eventually. Monroe is averaging 14.6 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, but the frontcourt of Smith/Monroe/Drummond has proven too slow to compete and the Pistons are going to have to consider matching up more to its opponents.

DET Trends: OVER 8-1 in last 9 vs teams with winning percentage above .600; OVER 6-1 in last 7 vs teams with winning SU records; 6-1 ATS in last 7 road games vs teams with home winning percentage greater than .600.

HOU Trends: 4-0 ATS in last 4 following ATS loss; UNDER 14-3 in last 17 on 2 days rest; 7-2 ATS in last 9 when opponent allows 100 points or more in previous game.

Head-to-head: Pistons 0-6 ATS in last 6 meetings; Pistons 0-4 ATS in last 4 in Houston; UNDER 9-2 in last 11 meetings in Houston.

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