Mountain West Betting Picks: UNLV Rebels at TCU Horned Frogs
#11 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Daniel-Meyer Coliseum – Fort Worth, Texas
Tuesday, February 14, 2012, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: The Mountain
Opening Line: UNLV -9 1/2
Current Line: UNLV -8 1/2
Opening Total: 147
Current Total: 146 1/2
Opening Money Line: UNLV -400 / TCU +330
Current Money Line: UNLV -375 / TCU +315
After an emotional 65-63 home win over San Diego St Saturday, the #11 UNLV Rebels now travel to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs. The Rebels are 22-4 overall and 6-2 in the Mountain West, tied for first with San Diego St and New Mexico. UNLV hasn’t been ranked this high since 1993. The Horned Frogs are 14-10 overall and 4-4 in conference, in a three way tie for second with Wyoming and Colorado St. TCU upset Colorado St at home Saturday 75-71. UNLV leads the series against TCU 17-2 including 7-1 in Fort Worth. The Rebels have won 6 straight in the series. UNLV crushed TCU last month in Vegas 101-78.
UNLV is coached by Dave Rice. The Rebels have four losses this season all on the road to teams with a combined record of 79-20. UNLV lost to Wichita St, Wisconsin, San Diego St, and Wyoming. The San Diego St and Wyoming losses were both by 2 points. The Rebels have wins over Nevada, Cal Poly, USC, North Carolina, UC Santa Barbara, UTEP, Illinois, Cal, Hawaii, New Mexico, Boise St, Air Force, and Colorado St.
TCU is coached by Jim Christian. The Horned Frogs have losses to Norfolk St, Ole Miss, Nebraska, USC, Tulsa, Colorado St, New Mexico, San Diego St, and SMU. TCU has wins over Virginia, Houston, Evansville, Texas Tech, Rice, Boise St, Air Force, and Wyoming. TCU is 4-0 at home in the Mountain West this season, but hasn’t played the conference’s Big 3 teams at home yet.
UNLV is outscoring opponents 80-66 this season. UNLV is #11 in scoring nationally. The Rebels shoot 47.1% from the field, including 36.3% from 3 point range. The Rebels make 68.3% from the free throw line. UNLV is #20 in rebounding averaging 39.1 rebounds a game, and has a rebounding margin of +5.2. The Rebels average 18.6 assists, 13.3 turnovers, 5.1 blocks, and 8.7 steals a game. UNLV is second nationally in assists per game. UNLV opponents are shooting 40.5% from the field including 34.1% from 3 point range. The Rebels force 15.6 turnovers a game.
Forward Mike Moser averages 14.7 points, 11.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 2 steals a game. Moser leads the Rebels in scoring rebounds and assists, and is shooting 33% from 3 point range. Chace Stanback averages 13.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. He makes 44.3% from 3 point range. Anthony Marshall averages 11.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. Point guard Oscar Bellfield averages 10 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists a game to lead the team. Bellfield shoots 35.6% from 3 point range. Justin Hawkins averages 8.6 points, 3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.7 steals. Carlos Lopez and Quintrell Thomas lead the Rebels in blocks with 1.1 a game.
TCU is outscoring opponents 71-70 this season. The Horned Frogs are shooting 43.8% from the field and 35.8% from 3 point range. TCU makes 70.5% of their free throws. The Horned Frogs average 31.8 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of -2. TCU averages 13.8 assists, 14.5 turnovers, 7.3 steals, and 2.7 blocks a game. TCU opponents are shooting 46.8% from the field and 38.7% from 3 point range. TCU forces 16.8 turnovers a game.
TCU guard Hank Thorns averages 12.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. He leads the Frogs in scoring and assists, and is tied for the team lead in steals. He makes 38.3% from 3 point range. J.R. Cadot averages 10.4 points, 6.5 rebounds to lead the team, 1.4 assists, and 1.5 steals a game. Garlon Green averages 10.1 points, and 3.2 rebounds a game. He makes 33% from 3 point range. Amric Fields averages 9.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1 assists, and 0.7 blocks a game to lead the team. He is shooting 39.3% from 3 point range. Kyan Anderson, Craig Williams, and Adrick McKinney also get significant minutes in the rotation.
TCU is 8-11 ATS and the total is 11-8 this season. UNLV is 10-12 ATS and the total is also 10-12 this season. UNLV is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings against TCU, and 5-1 in Fort Worth. Four of the last five games in the series have gone over the total. The Runnin’ Rebels are 2-5 ATS after a straight up win, 1-4 as a favorite, against teams with winning records, overall, and in Mountain West games, 0-5 in road games, as a road favorite, and in road games against teams with winning home records, and 0-4 as a favorite of between 7-12.5 points. The Horned Frogs are 17-35-1 ATS at home, 16-40-1 as a home underdog, 2-5 after a straight up win, 4-10 as an underdog of 7-12.5 points, including 0-4-1 at home, 7-19-1 at home against teams with winning road records, and 7-21 after a cover.
The way to beat UNLV is to put them in the half court and take the “runnin” out of Runnin’ Rebels. Unfortunately, TCU has one of the worst defenses in the country. The Rebels should roll in this game. However, keep in mind that UNLV is coming off an emotional win against San Diego St and travels to New Mexico Saturday. This could be a sandwich game for the Rebels.