Ivy League Cellar Dwellers Matchup: Cornell at Dartmouth Betting Preview

Cornell Big Red AT Dartmouth Big Green
Jan 28, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST
Opening Line:  Cornell -3.5
Current Line:  Cornell -4
Opening Total: 128
Current Total: 128
Opening Moneyline:  Cor -165 / Dar +155
Current Moneyline:  Cor -175 / Dar +155

Week 10 NFL Odds & Lines
Cornell is 4 point favorites and betting has shifted from -3.5 to open

While the big guns in the Ivy league (Columbia & Harvard) are battling for supremacy, few may take notice of the two cellar dwellers duking it out in Cornell and Dartmouth, who are both a winless 0-2 in Ivy League play.  Dartmouth has dropped 3 straight and 5 of their last 6.  Of the five losses, they’ve averaged a -17.8 point differential, and last dropped a game to Harvard at home by 15.  Cornell, conversely, has won 2 of their last 3 (but dropped the previous 8 games prior to that) and are coming off an 8 point home win against the Stony Brook Seawolves.

As you might expect from two 4-12 teams, they both sport negative point differentials, but Dartmouth’s is more severe with a -9.6 differential as they score a horrid 58.3 points per game while giving up 67.9.  Cornell is an almost respectable -3.8, scoring 65.9 and giving up 69.8.  The combinative total of their offensive output is 128.1, right in line with the total set by college basketball oddsmakers.

Some betting trends:

Cornell is 1-7 SU in their last 8 road games and 5-0 SU in their last 5 on the road at Dartmouth.

Dartmouth is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games and Dartmouth is 2-6 SU in their last 8 home games. Dartmouth is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when playing Cornell and 0-5 SU in their last 5 against the Big Red.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dartmouth’s last 6 games against Cornell and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Big Green.  Dartmouth is 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games against Cornell.

Dartmouth really has no standout players.  They have three players averaging 9 points per game (Jabari Trotter, R.J. Griffin, and David Rufful), and only 4 players on their team play over 20 minutes a game (same three + Ronnie Dixon).  It’s not because they’re deep; they’re just bad.  As a team they shoot 38% from the floor and 34% from three.  Ruffel posts the best all around line from their players with 9 points per game, 4.9 rebounds per game, and a somewhat impressive 1.5 steals. He’s scored in double figures in 7 of their 16 games and will have to have one of his better games to give Dartmouth a good chance at winning this.

Cornell is led by the trio of Chris Wroblewski, Andrew Ferry, and Errick Peck, who combine for 38.4 points per game, 58% of Cornell’s scoring output.  The 6’0″ junior Wroblewski is the only Cornell player to play over thirty minutes a game, and he does play well.  He puts up 15.5 points per game and 5.9 assists giving Cornell a decent point guard at least.  Moreover, he shoots 41% from three (32 of 78).   He’s had a couple of impressive outings, scoring 25 against Saint Boniventure and 29 against Stony Brook, but he hasn’t had any particularly impressive games against the better teams that Cornell has played (and their schedule IS soft).

Despite the line only being slighly in Cornell’s favor, I have trouble seeing how they win this game by any less than 10 points.  I’ve already dropped my bet on Cornell covering the spread and it seems like a good bet to me.

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