Costly Players

The betting public is composed of suckers. That, of course, is why sportsbooks exist. I’m sure that every time a reasonably unexpected player has a big performance the books just laugh and figure out how they are going to spend all of the extra money that they are going to make. That’s because the public assumes that any performance, no matter how gaudy or unexpected, is completely sustainable. If a players has a huge game this week, public logic dictates that they wll do it again the next week, and they bet accordingly. They usually won’t, obviously, and that will often cost the overly eager public some cash. Here are five players (six, actually) who could prove costly:

Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos – This second round receiver out of Virginia Tech was a true beast on Monday Night. He had nine catches for 146 yards and a touchdown, and he made the secondary look consistently ridiculous. That was only against the Raiders, though. DeAngelo Hall played as bad as a corner can play, and the Raiders were confused and generally useless. Royal isn’t going to find it that easy from now on, and neither will the Denver offense.

Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons
– I’ll group these two together for obvious reasons. Both guys had much better debuts than I expected, but they are going to come back to earth. First, they were only playing Detroit last time out. I could have looked good against the Lions given how they looked. I expect both guys to have decent years, and perhaps more than that in Turner’s case, but it isn’t always going to be as smooth and easy as it looked on Sunday. THe public doesn’t agree with me – more than 70 percent of bets so far have been on the Falcons as they make their first road start in Tampa.

Dante Rosario, Carolina Panthers – Rosario is the tight end who made the huge, game winning catch at the end of the game against San Diego. He’s a second year player out of Oregon. He didn’t play much last year, but he had a huge first game this year. The media, predictably, is being ridiculous. I have now twice read people comparing him to Antonio Gates, and telling readers how he will revolutionize the Carolina offense. He almost certainly won’t, but you won’t be able to tell that to the public if they don’t want to listen.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
– Rodgers had a very good debut for the Pack, and suddenly many in the media are writing as if Favre is a distant memory and the team has made a serious upgrade. I have high hopes for Rodgers in the long term, but he isgoing to struggle along the way.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
– This second round runner out of Tulane is the real deal. He was the MVP of the Senior Bowl. He had a heck of a pro debut, too – 23 carries for 123 yards and a TD. In the eyes of many, the Bears’ running woes have been solved. Maybe, but I’m not convinced yet. The Bears played a surprisingly listless Colts team, and they clearly benefitted from that. Things won’t always be so easy for Mr. Forte.

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Posted by on Sep 10 2008. Filed under NFL. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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