College Football Week 5 Picks: TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs

TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs
Saturday, 9/27/14, 12:00 PM EST
Opening Point Spread:  TCU -29
Current Betting Line:  TCU -31.5
Opening Total:  51
Current Total:  46.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

The TCU Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS as road favorites since 2012
The TCU Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS as road favorites since 2012

TCU is 2-0 SUATS through two games this season, as it was last seen picking up a 30-7 victory over the Minnesota Golden Gophers as 17-point home favorites on Sept. 13, as it has won the statistical battle by 571 combined yards in 2014.  The Horned Frogs have won nine of their last 10 regular-season games following an open date, which is important to consider when making your Week 5 college football picks, especially since the program has won 10 of 12 meetings in this series under Gary Patterson.  TCU is 3-1 SU and 0-4 ATS as road favorites the last two-plus seasons.

The Horned Frogs rank second nationally in allowing just 205.5 yards per game, which can’t be ignored when looking over the college football odds page, especially with their opponents gaining just 2.2 yards per rush and completing just 49 percent of their passes.  TCU’s new offense under co-coordinators Sonny Cumbie and Doug Meacham is averaging 491.0 yards per game—a major improvement in comparison to last year’s 344.8 yards per contest.

SMU is going in the opposite direction of this week’s opponent, as it has gone 0-3 SUATS in its first three affairs and is getting set to play its second game under interim head coach Tom Mason after Junes Jones left the program.  The Mustangs will send out walk-on junior Garrett Krstich under center, as he’s appearing for the third time at the collegiate level, but this will be his first start.  SMU is 8-6 SU and 8-5-1 ATS at home since 2012.

The Mustangs are 40-46-7 all-time in this series, but they’ve dropped the last two meetings, including a 48-17 decision as 17-point road underdogs in 2013.  SMU was outgained by just 43 yards in that affair, but it was limited to 16 yards on the ground.  It’s important to point out that the OVER has cashed in three of the last four games between these Lone Star State rivals.

Sports bettors will likely back the Mustangs due to the underdog covering the number in four of the last five meetings.

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