College Football Week 4 Betting Trends and Previews: UAB at (16) Ohio State

Sophomore Braxton Miller is good and only getting better.

UAB vs Ohio State
Time: 12 PM EST Sat
TV: B10
Spread: OSU -37
Total: 58.5

UAB:

UAB has come out of the gates 0-2 with losses to Troy and then- No. 8 South Carolina. They square off against No. 16 Ohio State at noon on Saturday on the Big Ten Network. The Blazers find themselves 37 point underdogs according to college football oddsmakers, and they rank near the bottom in both rushing yards (80.5 per game) and points scored (17.5 points per game).

Junior quarterback Jonathan Perry has been decent, with a 52.2 percent completion ratio, but his five sacks and one interception hurt his QB rating and make it 126.3. He threw for 219 yards against South Carolina, completing half of his 34 passes, but was sacked four times. The OL has been shaky, and he’s not getting enough time to throw, so it’s going to be difficult against an Ohio State team this week that has one of the best DLs in the nation, as I wrote in my season preview:

OSU Defense:

Defensive coordinator Luke Fickell has always focused on preventing the run, and though OSU (sort of) struggled with that last year (50th in the nation allowing 141.5), due to slower linebackers and back end defense, those issues have been handled and the DL is one of the best in the nation, so that will likely off-set any possible deficiencies.

DE John Simon and DT Jonathan Hankins both could be All-Americans this season and they are joined by a lot more talent up front. DE Nathan Williams should have a huge year if he can manage to come back from a rather bad knee injury he suffered. Moreover, the Buckeyes had a top 10 signing class and a few of them were DLs, including Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington. Both should have impact from day one.

Etinne Sabino will be the key for the linebackers and they also have Ryan Shazier, whose athletic ability will always make him a standout. They return five players from their secondary, including great cornerbacks in Bradley Roby and Travis Howard.
It all comes together to spell what should be not just a good defense, but a great one. Their mediocrity last year will be quickly forgotten.

OSU Last week:

The Buckeyes won on a 72-yard Braxton Miller TD pass to Devin Smith with 3:26 left, and the then No. 12 ranked Buckeyes snuck out with a victory. The narrow victory caused them to drop to No. 18 in the polls this week, but they should get back on track against this UAB squad.

“Our guys found a way,” Meyer said in reference to last week’s win. “I’ve been in games before I thought we were going to lose. I just kept waiting, I thought someone would make a play. I really did.”

The Buckeyes are going to win a lot of games like that, because Miller will be there to make that play. He completed 16 of 30 passes for 249 yards while throwing four TDs in that game, while he was intercepted once. He had more yards in the air than Cal’s standout QB Zach Maynard. The battle of the QB position had been billed as the story of the game, but it was Miller, whose dual-threat abilities make him a top tier NCAA QB, who got the best of this matchup.

The Final Word on OSU’s Offense:

Miller is only a sophomore but this year has increased his QB rating to 151.8. Last year, he threw 1,159 yards with a 54.1 percent completion ratio, and finished with a 138.4 rating. He’s also only been sacked three times this season, compared to 39 throughout the course of last year. His 7.83 yards per attempt are slightly up from last year’s 7.38, and he has better receivers to thank for that. Those remaining have gotten better and Devin Smith and Philly Brown have combined for 29 receptions for 399 yards, totaling 4 TDs between them, as well.

Ohio State Betting Trends:

Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards of rushing, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS loss, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 in Sept, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 at home vs teams with losing records, 21-10-1 ATS their last 32 on turf, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following an SU win.

UAB Betting Trends:

Blazers are 4-1 ATS after accumulating less than 275 yards in previous week, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in previous week, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following an SU loss, 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 after scoring less than 20 the previous game, 1-4 ATS vs teams with winning records and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

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Posted by on Sep 21 2012. Filed under College Football, Headlines. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

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